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UEFA Nations League · League A, Matchday 6

Belgium vs Italy: Match Preview & Stats

Belgium crest Belgium
vs
Italy crest Italy
Stade Roi Baudouin, Bruxelles (Brussel)

Our picks

Model predictions are published 48 hours before kick-off

To take in the latest form and rest days, the predictions for this match come out on . (If either team plays another match in between, they come out once that match is over.)

See today's ready predictions →

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League A, Matchday 6
Kick-off
Venue
Stade Roi Baudouin, Bruxelles (Brussel)
Since last match
Belgium: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) · Turkey (1‑2) Italy: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) · France (3‑1)
Next match
Belgium: not scheduled yet Italy: not scheduled yet

Last starting XI

Belgium 4-3-3

  1. 1 Lammens
  2. 21 Castagne
  3. 15 Ngoy
  4. 4 Mechele
  5. 5 De Cuyper
  6. 7 De Bruyne
  7. 23 Raskin
  8. 8 Tielemans
  9. 19 Moreira
  10. 17 De Ketelaere
  11. 11 Doku

Coach: Mark van Bommel at Turkiye, 2-1 · UEFA Nations League · 12 Nov

Italy 4-3-3

  1. 1 Donnarumma
  2. 2 Kayode
  3. 3 Scalvini
  4. 6 Bastoni
  5. 5 Calafiori
  6. 16 Frattesi
  7. 8 Tonali
  8. 18 Barella
  9. 7 Esposito
  10. 9 Esposito
  11. 19 Cambiaghi

Coach: Roberto Mancini vs France, 3-1 · UEFA Nations League · 12 Nov

Our predicted line-ups come with our picks, 48 hours before kick-off. Until then: each club's last starting XI.

Injuries and suspensions

Belgium

  • FW Romelu LukakuInjured · Doubtful

Italy

No absences reported.

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Belgium

Low impact
Missing attack share 7.0%
Missing minutes share 3.0%
1 player out
Key absences:
  • FW Romelu Lukaku 7% attack · 3% mins

Italy

Low impact

Full squad available — no listed absences

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 10 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Belgium Italy
Box & Territory Pressure 63 55
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 39 44
Finishing Efficiency 86 81
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 61 72
Underlying Play Power 61 48
Belgium Results above play quality (running hot)
Italy Results above play quality (running hot)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 10 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Belgium

When scoring first 83% won · 83% unbeaten (6 matches)
When conceding first 71% points rescued · 29% won (7 matches)
1st Half: 42% 2nd Half: 58%
First 15': 9% Last 15' (76-90'): 24%

Italy

When scoring first 80% won · 90% unbeaten (10 matches)
When conceding first 60% points rescued · 40% won (5 matches)
1st Half: 34% 2nd Half: 66%
First 15': 11% Last 15' (76-90'): 26%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Belgium

  1. 1. MF Kevin De Bruyne 4G · 1A
    Team attack 14.0% Team shots 19.0%
  2. 2. MF Charles De Ketelaere 4G · 3A
    Team attack 12.0% Team shots 7.0%
  3. 3. FW Leandro Trossard 2G · 2A
    Team attack 10.0% Team shots 9.0%

Italy

  1. 1. FW Francesco Pio Esposito 5G · 1A
    Team attack 18.0% Team shots 16.0%
  2. 2. FW Moise Kean 2G · 0A
    Team attack 9.0% Team shots 13.0%
  3. 3. MF Nicolò Barella 0G · 2A
    Team attack 8.0% Team shots 4.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Belgium Italy
Over 1.5 goals 8/10 8/10
Over 2.5 goals 7/10 4/10
Over 3.5 goals 4/10 4/10
Both teams scored 6/10 6/10
Clean sheet 3/10 3/10
Failed to score 2/10 1/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 2.0 / 1.2 1.7 / 1.1

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Belgium

  • W 2-1 at Turkey (A) UEFA Nations League · 12 Nov
  • L 1-4 at France (A) UEFA Nations League · 5 Oct
  • W 3-0 vs Turkey (H) UEFA Nations League · 2 Oct
  • L 0-1 vs France (H) UEFA Nations League · 28 Sep
  • W 2-0 at Italy (A) UEFA Nations League · 25 Sep

Italy

  • W 3-1 vs France (H) UEFA Nations League · 12 Nov
  • W 3-1 vs Turkey (H) UEFA Nations League · 5 Oct
  • D 1-1 at France (A) UEFA Nations League · 2 Oct
  • W 4-1 at Turkey (A) UEFA Nations League · 28 Sep
  • L 0-2 vs Belgium (H) UEFA Nations League · 25 Sep

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Belgium

Italy

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Belgium

Player G A
Kevin De Bruyne 3 1
Dodi Lukébakio 2 1
Charles De Ketelaere 1 2
Mika Godts 1 0
Romelu Lukaku 1 0

Italy

Player G A
Francesco Pio Esposito (1 pen) 4 1
Alessandro Bastoni 2 0
Davide Frattesi 2 0
Gianluca Scamacca 1 0
Michael Kayode 1 0

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Belgium Italy
  • 3.4 Corners won 3.4
  • 5.2 Corners conceded 6.4
  • 2.8 Yellow cards 2.2
  • 2.0 Opponents' yellow cards 2.4

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 4.5 corners, 1.8 yellow cards.

Attack and defence ratings

BelgiumItaly
Attack 87 83
Defence 91 85

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

2100Elo #8 Elo rating 2109Elo #7

Head-to-head

1Belgium wins
1draw
4Italy wins

6 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 25 Sep 2026 · UEFA Nations League Italy 0-2 Belgium
  • 14 Nov 2024 · UEFA Nations League Belgium 0-1 Italy
  • 10 Oct 2024 · UEFA Nations League Italy 2-2 Belgium
  • 10 Oct 2021 · UEFA Nations League Italy 2-1 Belgium
  • 2 Jul 2021 · EURO Belgium 1-2 Italy

Table

League A - Group 1

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Italy 5 311 11:6 +5 10
2 France 5 311 8:5 +3 10
3 Belgium 5 302 8:6 +2 9
4 Turkey 5 005 3:13 -10 0

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

More UEFA Nations League matches

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Times are UTC.