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UEFA Nations League · League A, Matchday 5

Italy vs France Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Italy crest Italy
3-1Full time
France crest France
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

Our picks

  • Result France win
    Model probability 25% 27% 48%
  • Double chance France or draw (X2)
    Model probability 52% 73% 75%
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.5
    Model probability 60%
  • More corners France
    Model probability 34% 12% 55%
  • Yellow cards Around the league average(league 3.8)
    Model probability Over 3.5 52%Over 4.5 33%Over 5.5 18%
  • Corners Above the league average(league 8.9)
    Model probability Over 8.5 66%Over 9.5 54%Over 10.5 42%

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 1‑2
  2. #2 1‑1
  3. #3 0‑1

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Strong support
  • Italy: Recent shot, box and corner dominance Low support
  • Recent goal difference balance Low support
All probabilities

Result after 90 minutes

Italy 25%
Draw 27%
France 48% Our pick

Double chance

1X · Italy or draw52%

12 · Italy or France73%

X2 · France or draw75%

Both teams to score

Yes55%

No45%

Goals over/under 2.5

Over 2.560%

Under 2.540%

Yellow cards

Expected 3.8

Over 3.5 / under52% · 48%

Over 4.5 / under33% · 67%

Over 5.5 / under18% · 82%

Corners

Expected Italy 4.6 – 5.5 France

Over 8.5 / under66% · 34%

Over 9.5 / under54% · 46%

Over 10.5 / under42% · 58%

More corners

Italy34%

Level12%

France55%

Why this pick?

Our result pick is a France win because our model rates France clearly stronger than Italy on its long-run, xG-based strength rating. The strongest argument on the other side is Italy playing at home, which can lift them and make the game tighter. That home push is outweighed by France's recent play: they keep more of the ball than the competition average, shoot more and get into the opposition box far more often, while Italy have conceded a markedly higher number of shots over their last five. The call is moderate rather than clear, but the overall view still points to France.

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League A, Matchday 5
Kick-off
Venue
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
Referee
István Kovács (5.9 yellow cards per match over the last 8 matches)
Next match
Italy: Belgium France: Turkey

Starting line-ups

Italy 4-3-3

  1. 1 Donnarumma
  2. 2 Kayode
  3. 3 Scalvini
  4. 6 Bastoni
  5. 5 Calafiori
  6. 16 Frattesi
  7. 8 Tonali
  8. 18 Barella
  9. 7 Esposito
  10. 9 Esposito
  11. 19 Cambiaghi

Coach: Roberto Mancini

France 4-2-3-1

  1. 16 Maignan
  2. 2 Gusto
  3. 22 Jacquet
  4. 4 Upamecano
  5. 3 Truffert
  6. 21 Da Cunha
  7. 14 Rabiot
  8. 11 Olise
  9. 7 Cherki
  10. 20 Doué
  11. 12 Barcola

Coach: Zinédine Zidane

Injuries and suspensions

Italy

No absences reported.

France

  • DF Pierre KaluluInjured · Late November 2026
  • MF Aurélien TchouaméniInjured · About 1-2 weeks
  • FW Kylian MbappéInjured · A few days
  • FW Marcus ThuramInjured · Doubtful

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

What this page showed before the match: our reasons, form, ratings and records as they were then.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Italy France
Box & Territory Pressure 66 73
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 57 45
Finishing Efficiency 54 89
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 78 59
Underlying Play Power 55 73
Italy Results above play quality (running hot)
France Results above play quality (running hot)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 10 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Italy

When scoring first 80% won · 90% unbeaten (10 matches)
When conceding first 60% points rescued · 20% won (5 matches)
1st Half: 31% 2nd Half: 69%
First 15': 11% Last 15' (76-90'): 29%

France

When scoring first 90% won · 100% unbeaten (10 matches)
When conceding first 60% points rescued · 40% won (5 matches)
1st Half: 22% 2nd Half: 78%
First 15': 6% Last 15' (76-90'): 33%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Italy

  1. 1. FW Francesco Pio Esposito 4G · 1A
    Team attack 15.0% Team shots 14.0%
  2. 2. MF Sandro Tonali 1G · 1A
    Team attack 6.0% Team shots 9.0%
  3. 3. MF Nicolò Barella 0G · 2A
    Team attack 6.0% Team shots 3.0%

France

  1. 1. FW Michael Olise 4G · 6A
    Team attack 17.0% Team shots 14.0%
  2. 2. FW Désiré Doué 2G · 3A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 12.0%
  3. 3. FW Bradley Barcola 2G · 1A
    Team attack 8.0% Team shots 7.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Italy France
Over 1.5 goals 8/10 7/10
Over 2.5 goals 3/10 4/10
Over 3.5 goals 3/10 3/10
Both teams scored 5/10 4/10
Clean sheet 4/10 5/10
Failed to score 1/10 1/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 1.6 / 1.0 2.1 / 1.1

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Italy

  • W 3-1 vs Turkey (H) UEFA Nations League · 5 Oct
  • D 1-1 at France (A) UEFA Nations League · 2 Oct
  • W 4-1 at Turkey (A) UEFA Nations League · 28 Sep
  • L 0-2 vs Belgium (H) UEFA Nations League · 25 Sep
  • W 1-0 at Greece (A) Friendlies · 7 Jun

France

  • W 4-1 vs Belgium (H) UEFA Nations League · 5 Oct
  • D 1-1 vs Italy (H) UEFA Nations League · 2 Oct
  • W 1-0 at Belgium (A) UEFA Nations League · 28 Sep
  • W 1-0 at Turkey (A) UEFA Nations League · 25 Sep
  • L 4-6 vs England (N) World Cup · 18 Jul

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Italy

France

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Italy

Player G A
Francesco Pio Esposito 2 1
Alessandro Bastoni 2 0
Davide Frattesi 1 0
Gianluca Scamacca 1 0
Michael Kayode 1 0

France

Player G A
Michael Olise 4 2
Désiré Doué 1 2
Rayan Cherki 1 2
Kylian Mbappé 1 0

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Italy France
  • 3.2 Corners won 6.0
  • 7.2 Corners conceded 3.2
  • 2.2 Yellow cards 1.0
  • 2.5 Opponents' yellow cards 2.8

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 4.4 corners, 1.8 yellow cards.

Referee: István Kovács, 5.9 yellow cards per match over the last 8 matches.

Attack and defence ratings

ItalyFrance
Attack 83 98
Defence 81 94

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

Head-to-head

1Italy wins
1draw
1France wins

3 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 2 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League France 1-1 Italy
  • 17 Nov 2024 · UEFA Nations League Italy 1-3 France
  • 6 Sep 2024 · UEFA Nations League France 1-3 Italy

Other UEFA Nations League results that day

All results

Times are UTC.