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UEFA Nations League · League A, Matchday 5

Turkey vs Belgium Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Turkey crest Turkey
1-2Full time
Belgium crest Belgium
ISONEM Park Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, İzmir

Our picks

  • Result Belgium win
    Model probability 32% 25% 43%
  • Double chance Turkey or Belgium (12)
    Model probability 57% 75% 68%
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.5
    Model probability 67%
  • More corners Turkiye
    Model probability 44% 13% 43%
  • Yellow cards Around the league average(league 3.8)
    Model probability Over 3.5 56%Over 4.5 36%Over 5.5 21%
  • Corners Around the league average(league 8.9)
    Model probability Over 8.5 52%Over 9.5 39%Over 10.5 28%

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 1‑2 Matched
  2. #2 1‑1
  3. #3 2‑1

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Strong support
  • Recent goal difference balance Moderate support
All probabilities

Result after 90 minutes

Turkiye 32%
Draw 25%
Belgium 43% Our pick

Double chance

1X · Turkey or draw57%

12 · Turkey or Belgium75%

X2 · Belgium or draw68%

Both teams to score

Yes51%

No49%

Goals over/under 2.5

Over 2.567%

Under 2.533%

Yellow cards

Expected 4.0

Over 3.5 / under56% · 44%

Over 4.5 / under36% · 64%

Over 5.5 / under21% · 79%

Corners

Expected Turkiye 4.5 – 4.4 Belgium

Over 8.5 / under52% · 48%

Over 9.5 / under39% · 61%

Over 10.5 / under28% · 72%

More corners

Turkey44%

Level13%

Belgium43%

Why this pick?

Belgium are our pick, and the strongest argument is that our long-run, xG-based strength rating puts them well above Turkey: an attack of 87 against 75 and a defence of 91 against 58. Turkey's strongest counter is playing at home in İzmir, and that is not a small thing for a side that has lost four of its last five. What holds the call together is the defensive comparison — Turkey have been conceding more shots and more clear chances than the league average, while Belgium keep big chances conceded around the norm. Our model reads the matchup as clearly favouring the visitors, though the call stays narrow.

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League A, Matchday 5
Kick-off
Venue
ISONEM Park Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, İzmir
Referee
Sandro Schärer (4.2 yellow cards per match over the last 10 matches)
Next match
Turkey: France Belgium: Italy

Starting line-ups

Turkiye 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Çakir
  2. 18 Aydin
  3. 15 Kabak
  4. 3 Demiral
  5. 20 Kadioğlu
  6. 16 Yüksek
  7. 6 Kökçü
  8. 17 Akgün
  9. 8 Güler
  10. 21 Yilmaz
  11. 9 Ünal

Coach: Sergen Yalçin

Belgium 4-3-3

  1. 1 Lammens
  2. 21 Castagne
  3. 15 Ngoy
  4. 4 Mechele
  5. 5 De Cuyper
  6. 7 De Bruyne
  7. 23 Raskin
  8. 8 Tielemans
  9. 19 Moreira
  10. 17 De Ketelaere
  11. 11 Doku

Coach: Mark van Bommel

Injuries and suspensions

Turkiye

  • DF Abdülkerim BardakciSuspended · Mid November 2026
  • MF Aral ŞimşirInjured · Late November 2026

Belgium

  • MF Roméo LaviaSuspended · Mid November 2026
  • FW Romelu LukakuInjured · Doubtful

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

What this page showed before the match: our reasons, form, ratings and records as they were then.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Turkey Belgium
Box & Territory Pressure 66 64
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 49 44
Finishing Efficiency 15 81
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 40 50
Underlying Play Power 66 58
Turkiye Playing above results (positive regression candidate)
Belgium Results above play quality (running hot)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 10 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Turkiye

When scoring first 100% won · 100% unbeaten (6 matches)
When conceding first 22% points rescued · 11% won (9 matches)
1st Half: 42% 2nd Half: 58%
First 15': 17% Last 15' (76-90'): 12%

Belgium

When scoring first 86% won · 86% unbeaten (7 matches)
When conceding first 67% points rescued · 17% won (6 matches)
1st Half: 38% 2nd Half: 62%
First 15': 8% Last 15' (76-90'): 27%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Turkiye

  1. 1. MF Arda Güler 1G · 0A
    Team attack 15.0% Team shots 19.0%
  2. 2. FW Bariş Alper Yilmaz 2G · 1A
    Team attack 10.0% Team shots 4.0%
  3. 3. MF Orkun Kökçü 0G · 2A
    Team attack 6.0% Team shots 4.0%

Belgium

  1. 1. MF Kevin De Bruyne 3G · 1A
    Team attack 13.0% Team shots 18.0%
  2. 2. FW Leandro Trossard 2G · 2A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 10.0%
  3. 3. MF Charles De Ketelaere 3G · 3A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 6.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Turkey Belgium
Over 1.5 goals 7/10 8/10
Over 2.5 goals 6/10 6/10
Over 3.5 goals 4/10 4/10
Both teams scored 4/10 6/10
Clean sheet 2/10 3/10
Failed to score 4/10 2/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 1.2 / 1.7 1.9 / 1.2

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Turkiye

  • L 1-3 at Italy (A) UEFA Nations League · 5 Oct
  • L 0-3 at Belgium (A) UEFA Nations League · 2 Oct
  • L 1-4 vs Italy (H) UEFA Nations League · 28 Sep
  • L 0-1 vs France (H) UEFA Nations League · 25 Sep
  • W 3-2 vs USA (H) World Cup · 26 Jun

Belgium

  • L 1-4 at France (A) UEFA Nations League · 5 Oct
  • W 3-0 vs Turkey (H) UEFA Nations League · 2 Oct
  • L 0-1 vs France (H) UEFA Nations League · 28 Sep
  • W 2-0 at Italy (A) UEFA Nations League · 25 Sep
  • L 1-2 vs Spain (N) World Cup · 10 Jul

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Turkiye

Belgium

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Turkiye

Player G A
Aral Şimşir 1 0
Bariş Alper Yilmaz 1 0

Belgium

Player G A
Dodi Lukébakio 2 1
Kevin De Bruyne 2 1
Mika Godts 1 0
Romelu Lukaku 1 0

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Turkey Belgium
  • 6.2 Corners won 3.5
  • 2.5 Corners conceded 6.0
  • 2.8 Yellow cards 3.5
  • 2.2 Opponents' yellow cards 2.0

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 4.5 corners, 1.9 yellow cards.

Referee: Sandro Schärer, 4.2 yellow cards per match over the last 10 matches.

Attack and defence ratings

TurkeyBelgium
Attack 75 87
Defence 58 91

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

Head-to-head

1Turkey wins
1draw
1Belgium wins

3 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 2 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League Belgium 3-0 Turkey
  • 3 Jun 2011 · EURO Qualification Belgium 1-1 Turkey
  • 7 Sep 2010 · EURO Qualification Turkey 3-2 Belgium

Other UEFA Nations League results that day

All results

Times are UTC.