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UEFA Nations League · League C, Matchday 6

Estonia vs Bulgaria: Match Preview & Stats

Estonia crest Estonia
vs
Bulgaria crest Bulgaria
A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn

Our picks

Model predictions are published 48 hours before kick-off

To take in the latest form and rest days, the predictions for this match come out on . (If either team plays another match in between, they come out once that match is over.)

See today's ready predictions →

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League C, Matchday 6
Kick-off
Venue
A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn
Since last match
Estonia: 2 days (UEFA Nations League) · Luxembourg Bulgaria: 2 days (UEFA Nations League) · Iceland
Next match
Estonia: not scheduled yet Bulgaria: not scheduled yet

Last starting XI

Estonia 3-5-2

  1. 12 Igonen
  2. 3 Paskotši
  3. 2 Kuusk
  4. 5 Tõugjas
  5. 6 Peetson
  6. 14 Kristal
  7. 20 Poom
  8. 10 Palumets
  9. 13 Saliste
  10. 7 Saarma
  11. 17 Männilaan

Coach: Jürgen Henn vs Iceland, 0-0 · UEFA Nations League C · 6 Oct

Bulgaria 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Naumov
  2. 2 Stoyanov
  3. 13 Velkov
  4. 6 Tsenov
  5. 15 Petrov
  6. 8 Kraev
  7. 4 Gruev
  8. 17 Minchev
  9. 11 Rusev
  10. 18 Balov
  11. 9 Iliev

Coach: Atanas Ribarski at Luxembourg, 2-0 · UEFA Nations League C · 6 Oct

Our predicted line-ups come with our picks, 48 hours before kick-off. Until then: each club's last starting XI.

Injuries and suspensions

Estonia

  • FW Vlasiy SinyavskiyInjured · Late November 2026

Bulgaria

No absences reported.

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Estonia

Low impact
Missing attack share 2.0%
Missing minutes share 3.0%
1 player out

Bulgaria

Low impact

Full squad available — no listed absences

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 6 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Estonia Bulgaria
Box & Territory Pressure 28 34
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 31 46
Finishing Efficiency 81 52
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 73 77
Underlying Play Power 48 23
Estonia Playing above results (positive regression candidate)
Bulgaria Results above play quality (running hot)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 6 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Estonia

When scoring first 40% won · 60% unbeaten (5 matches)
When conceding first 14% points rescued · 0% won (7 matches)
1st Half: 60% 2nd Half: 40%
First 15': 30% Last 15' (76-90'): 10%

Bulgaria

When scoring first 43% won · 57% unbeaten (7 matches)
When conceding first 0% points rescued · 0% won (7 matches)
1st Half: 100% 2nd Half: 0%
First 15': 40% Last 15' (76-90'): 0%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Estonia

  1. 1. FW Robi Saarma 1G · 0A
    Team attack 12.0% Team shots 12.0%
  2. 2. MF Kevor Palumets 0G · 1A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 6.0%
  3. 3. MF Mattias Käit 1G · 0A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 11.0%

Bulgaria

  1. 1. FW Georgi Rusev 1G · 1A
    Team attack 12.0% Team shots 8.0%
  2. 2. FW Atanas Iliev 1G · 0A
    Team attack 9.0% Team shots 10.0%
  3. 3. FW Zdravko Dimitrov 0G · 1A
    Team attack 8.0% Team shots 8.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Estonia Bulgaria
Over 1.5 goals 5/10 7/10
Over 2.5 goals 1/10 5/10
Over 3.5 goals 1/10 2/10
Both teams scored 4/10 4/10
Clean sheet 5/10 3/10
Failed to score 3/10 4/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 0.7 / 0.9 1.8 / 1.3

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Estonia

  • D 0-0 vs Iceland (H) UEFA Nations League · 6 Oct
  • W 1-0 vs Luxembourg (H) UEFA Nations League · 3 Oct
  • D 0-0 at Bulgaria (A) UEFA Nations League · 29 Sep
  • D 1-1 at Iceland (A) UEFA Nations League · 26 Sep
  • W 1-0 vs Lithuania (H) Friendlies · 9 Jun

Bulgaria

  • W 2-0 at Luxembourg (A) UEFA Nations League · 6 Oct
  • L 0-3 at Iceland (A) UEFA Nations League · 3 Oct
  • D 0-0 vs Estonia (H) UEFA Nations League · 29 Sep
  • L 1-2 vs Luxembourg (H) UEFA Nations League · 26 Sep
  • D 2-2 at Moldova (A) Friendlies · 5 Jun

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Estonia

Bulgaria

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Estonia

Player G A
Rasmus Peetson 1 1
Maksim Paskotši 1 0

Bulgaria

Player G A
Asen Chandarov 1 0
Atanas Iliev 1 0
Kristiyan Balov 1 0

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Estonia Bulgaria
  • 4.8 Corners won 4.0
  • 5.8 Corners conceded 6.0
  • 2.0 Yellow cards 3.0
  • 2.8 Opponents' yellow cards 1.8

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 5.0 corners, 2.0 yellow cards.

Attack and defence ratings

EstoniaBulgaria
Attack 11 28
Defence 26 21

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1562Elo #91 Elo rating 1632Elo #73

Head-to-head

0Estonia wins
1draw
0Bulgaria wins

1 meeting since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 29 Sep 2026 · UEFA Nations League Bulgaria 0-0 Estonia

Table

League C - Group 4

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Iceland 4 220 7:1 +6 8
2 Estonia 4 130 2:1 +1 6
3 Bulgaria 4 112 3:5 -2 4
4 Luxembourg 4 103 2:7 -5 3

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

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Times are UTC.