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UEFA Nations League · League C, Matchday 5

Bulgaria vs Iceland Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Bulgaria crest Bulgaria
vs
Iceland crest Iceland
Stadion Hristo Botev, Plovdiv

Our picks

  • Result Iceland win
    Model probability 29% 24% 47%
  • Double chance Bulgaria or Iceland (12)
    Model probability 53% 76% 71%
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.5
    Model probability
  • More corners Iceland
    Model probability
  • Yellow cards Above the league average(league 3.8)
    Model probability Over 3.5 Over 4.5 Over 5.5
  • Corners Below the league average(league 9.8)
    Model probability Over 8.5 Over 9.5 Over 10.5

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 1‑2
  2. #2 1‑1
  3. #3 0‑1

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Strong support
  • Recent form gap between the two clubs Moderate support
  • Recent goal difference balance Low support

See exactly how confident our model is

Both teams to score, over/under 2.5 goals, cards and corners: these probabilities are for members until the match is over.

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Why this pick?

Our model backs Iceland, mainly because it rates them the stronger team on our long-run, xG-based strength rating. The main argument the other way is Bulgaria's advantage at home in Plovdiv, and that counts for something. What offsets it: Iceland's form is the better of the two, with a 3‑0 win in October's meeting, and across their last five matches they average more shots, more big chances and more touches in the opposition box, while conceding clearly fewer big chances. Even so, the call is a moderate one rather than a clear one.

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League C, Matchday 5
Kick-off
Venue
Stadion Hristo Botev, Plovdiv
Referee
Florian Badstübner
Since last match
Bulgaria: 38 days (UEFA Nations League) Iceland: 38 days (UEFA Nations League)
Next match
Bulgaria: 2 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Estonia Iceland: 2 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Luxembourg

Predicted line-ups

Bulgaria 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Naumov
  2. 2 Stoyanov
  3. 13 Velkov
  4. 6 Tsenov
  5. 15 Petrov
  6. 8 Kraev
  7. 4 Gruev
  8. 17 Minchev
  9. 11 Rusev
  10. 18 Balov
  11. 9 Iliev

Coach: Atanas Ribarski Last match: at Luxembourg, 2-0 · UEFA Nations League C · 6 Oct

Iceland 4-2-3-1

  1. 12 Valdimarsson
  2. 4 Pálsson
  3. 16 Thórdarson
  4. 23 Magnusson
  5. 3 Grétarsson
  6. 10 Sigurðsson
  7. 8 Jóhannesson
  8. 7 Haraldsson
  9. 22 Guðjohnsen
  10. 19 Ellertsson
  11. 9 Óskarsson

Coach: Arnar Gunnlaugsson Last match: at Estonia, 0-0 · UEFA Nations League C · 6 Oct

Our model's guess: the XIs of each club's recent matches, those of the same competition counting most, without the injured and suspended. On past matches it named 8.4 of the 11 starters on average. The official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Bulgaria

No absences reported.

Iceland

  • MF Mikael AndersonInjured · Mid November 2026

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Bulgaria

Low impact

Full squad available — no listed absences

Iceland

Moderate impact
Missing attack share 4.0%
Missing minutes share 4.0%
1 player out 1 regular starter out
Key absences:
  • MF Mikael Anderson 4% attack · 4% mins

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 6 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Bulgaria Iceland
Box & Territory Pressure 34 51
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 46 60
Finishing Efficiency 52 48
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 77 90
Underlying Play Power 23 68
Bulgaria Results above play quality (running hot)
Iceland Results above play quality (running hot)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 6 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Bulgaria

When scoring first 43% won · 57% unbeaten (7 matches)
When conceding first 0% points rescued · 0% won (7 matches)
1st Half: 100% 2nd Half: 0%
First 15': 40% Last 15' (76-90'): 0%

Iceland

When scoring first 45% won · 64% unbeaten (11 matches)
When conceding first 0% points rescued · 0% won (3 matches)
1st Half: 52% 2nd Half: 48%
First 15': 15% Last 15' (76-90'): 11%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Bulgaria

  1. 1. FW Georgi Rusev 1G · 1A
    Team attack 12.0% Team shots 8.0%
  2. 2. FW Atanas Iliev 1G · 0A
    Team attack 9.0% Team shots 10.0%
  3. 3. FW Zdravko Dimitrov 0G · 1A
    Team attack 8.0% Team shots 8.0%

Iceland

  1. 1. FW Orri Óskarsson 3G · 2A
    Team attack 23.0% Team shots 20.0%
  2. 2. FW Andri Guðjohnsen 2G · 1A
    Team attack 16.0% Team shots 11.0%
  3. 3. MF Hákon Arnar Haraldsson 0G · 2A
    Team attack 10.0% Team shots 8.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Bulgaria Iceland
Over 1.5 goals 7/10 8/10
Over 2.5 goals 5/10 5/10
Over 3.5 goals 2/10 2/10
Both teams scored 4/10 3/10
Clean sheet 3/10 3/10
Failed to score 4/10 5/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 1.8 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.4

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Bulgaria

  • W 2-0 at Luxembourg (A) UEFA Nations League · 6 Oct
  • L 0-3 at Iceland (A) UEFA Nations League · 3 Oct
  • D 0-0 vs Estonia (H) UEFA Nations League · 29 Sep
  • L 1-2 vs Luxembourg (H) UEFA Nations League · 26 Sep
  • D 2-2 at Moldova (A) Friendlies · 5 Jun

Iceland

  • D 0-0 at Estonia (A) UEFA Nations League · 6 Oct
  • W 3-0 vs Bulgaria (H) UEFA Nations League · 3 Oct
  • W 3-0 at Luxembourg (A) UEFA Nations League · 29 Sep
  • D 1-1 vs Estonia (H) UEFA Nations League · 26 Sep
  • L 0-3 at Argentina (A) Friendlies · 10 Jun

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Bulgaria

Iceland

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Bulgaria

Player G A
Asen Chandarov 1 0
Atanas Iliev 1 0
Kristiyan Balov 1 0

Iceland

Player G A
Orri Óskarsson 3 2
Andri Guðjohnsen 2 1
Mikael Egill Ellertsson 1 0
Victor Pálsson 1 0

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Bulgaria Iceland
  • 4.0 Corners won 6.2
  • 6.0 Corners conceded 2.2
  • 3.0 Yellow cards 2.0
  • 1.8 Opponents' yellow cards 2.2

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 5.0 corners, 2.0 yellow cards.

Referee: Florian Badstübner.

Attack and defence ratings

BulgariaIceland
Attack 28 64
Defence 21 32

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1632Elo #73 Elo rating 1753Elo #51

Head-to-head

0Bulgaria wins
0draws
1Iceland wins

1 meeting since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 3 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League Iceland 3-0 Bulgaria

Table

League C - Group 4

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Iceland 4 220 7:1 +6 8
2 Estonia 4 130 2:1 +1 6
3 Bulgaria 4 112 3:5 -2 4
4 Luxembourg 4 103 2:7 -5 3

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

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Times are UTC.