OptimaGoal
EN
UEFA Nations League · League C, Matchday 5

Luxembourg vs Estonia Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Luxembourg crest Luxembourg
vs
Estonia crest Estonia
Stade de Luxembourg, Lëtzebuerg (Luxembourg)

Our picks

  • Result Luxembourg win
    Model probability 51% 29% 21%
  • Double chance Luxembourg or draw (1X)
    Model probability 79% 71% 50%
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Under 2.5
    Model probability
  • More corners Luxembourg
    Model probability
  • Yellow cards Above the league average(league 3.8)
    Model probability Over 3.5 Over 4.5 Over 5.5
  • Corners Around the league average(league 9.8)
    Model probability Over 8.5 Over 9.5 Over 10.5

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 1‑0
  2. #2 1‑1
  3. #3 2‑0

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Moderate support
  • Estonia: Recent shot, box and corner dominance Low support
  • Estonia: Chance quality created vs conceded Low counter

See exactly how confident our model is

Both teams to score, over/under 2.5 goals, cards and corners: these probabilities are for members until the match is over.

$6.99 / month · That is about $0.23 a day

Unlock probabilities

Why this pick?

Our model goes for a Luxembourg win, mainly because they are at home against a side that has struggled to create — Estonia's shots, big chances and touches in the opposition box all sit at or below the league average. The clearest argument the other way is Estonia's recent expected-goals form: they have been hard to break down, and they took the reverse fixture 1‑0 in October. The pick holds because Luxembourg see more of the ball than most sides in this competition, and a visiting team that creates so little may not make that count; our strength rating also has the hosts slightly ahead. It is a moderate call.

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League C, Matchday 5
Kick-off
Venue
Stade de Luxembourg, Lëtzebuerg (Luxembourg)
Referee
Ishmael Barbara
Since last match
Luxembourg: 38 days (UEFA Nations League) Estonia: 38 days (UEFA Nations League)
Next match
Luxembourg: 2 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Iceland Estonia: 2 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Bulgaria

Predicted line-ups

Luxembourg 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Moris
  2. 4 Bohnert
  3. 5 Selimović
  4. 3 Mahmutović
  5. 14 Veiga
  6. 6 Cruz
  7. 8 Duarte
  8. 15 Natami
  9. 11 Thill
  10. 17 Kadamani
  11. 9 Videira

Coach: Jeff Strasser Last match: vs Bulgaria, 0-2 · UEFA Nations League C · 6 Oct

Estonia 3-5-2

  1. 12 Igonen
  2. 3 Paskotši
  3. 2 Kuusk
  4. 5 Tõugjas
  5. 6 Peetson
  6. 14 Kristal
  7. 20 Poom
  8. 10 Palumets
  9. 13 Saliste
  10. 7 Saarma
  11. 17 Männilaan

Coach: Jürgen Henn Last match: vs Iceland, 0-0 · UEFA Nations League C · 6 Oct

Our model's guess: the XIs of each club's recent matches, those of the same competition counting most, without the injured and suspended. On past matches it named 8.4 of the 11 starters on average. The official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Luxembourg

  • DF Dirk CarlsonSuspended · Mid November 2026

Estonia

No absences reported.

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Luxembourg

Moderate impact
Missing attack share 2.0%
Missing minutes share 8.0%
1 player out 1 regular starter out
Key absences:
  • DF Dirk Carlson 2% attack · 8% mins

Estonia

Low impact

Full squad available — no listed absences

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 8 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Luxembourg Estonia
Box & Territory Pressure 35 28
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 28 31
Finishing Efficiency 32 81
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 83 73
Underlying Play Power 38 48
Luxembourg Balanced (results match underlying play)
Estonia Playing above results (positive regression candidate)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 8 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Luxembourg

When scoring first 100% won · 100% unbeaten (2 matches)
When conceding first 23% points rescued · 8% won (13 matches)
1st Half: 27% 2nd Half: 73%
First 15': 0% Last 15' (76-90'): 18%

Estonia

When scoring first 40% won · 60% unbeaten (5 matches)
When conceding first 14% points rescued · 0% won (7 matches)
1st Half: 60% 2nd Half: 40%
First 15': 30% Last 15' (76-90'): 10%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Luxembourg

  1. 1. FW Vincent Thill 3G · 0A
    Team attack 17.0% Team shots 15.0%
  2. 2. FW Danel Sinani 1G · 1A
    Team attack 16.0% Team shots 16.0%
  3. 3. MF Leandro Barreiro 1G · 1A
    Team attack 10.0% Team shots 4.0%

Estonia

  1. 1. FW Robi Saarma 1G · 0A
    Team attack 12.0% Team shots 12.0%
  2. 2. MF Kevor Palumets 0G · 1A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 6.0%
  3. 3. MF Mattias Käit 1G · 0A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 11.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Luxembourg Estonia
Over 1.5 goals 6/10 5/10
Over 2.5 goals 3/10 1/10
Over 3.5 goals 0/10 1/10
Both teams scored 1/10 4/10
Clean sheet 3/10 5/10
Failed to score 6/10 3/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 0.8 / 1.1 0.7 / 0.9

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Luxembourg

  • L 0-2 vs Bulgaria (H) UEFA Nations League · 6 Oct
  • L 0-1 at Estonia (A) UEFA Nations League · 3 Oct
  • L 0-3 vs Iceland (H) UEFA Nations League · 29 Sep
  • W 2-1 at Bulgaria (A) UEFA Nations League · 26 Sep
  • W 1-0 at Albania (A) Friendlies · 6 Jun

Estonia

  • D 0-0 vs Iceland (H) UEFA Nations League · 6 Oct
  • W 1-0 vs Luxembourg (H) UEFA Nations League · 3 Oct
  • D 0-0 at Bulgaria (A) UEFA Nations League · 29 Sep
  • D 1-1 at Iceland (A) UEFA Nations League · 26 Sep
  • W 1-0 vs Lithuania (H) Friendlies · 9 Jun

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Luxembourg

Estonia

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Luxembourg

Player G A
Leandro Barreiro 1 0
Vincent Thill 1 0

Estonia

Player G A
Rasmus Peetson 1 1
Maksim Paskotši 1 0

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Luxembourg Estonia
  • 3.5 Corners won 4.8
  • 4.5 Corners conceded 5.8
  • 2.8 Yellow cards 2.0
  • 3.0 Opponents' yellow cards 2.8

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 5.0 corners, 2.0 yellow cards.

Referee: Ishmael Barbara, 1 earlier match in our data.

Attack and defence ratings

LuxembourgEstonia
Attack 21 11
Defence 30 26

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1605Elo #78 Elo rating 1562Elo #91

Head-to-head

0Luxembourg wins
0draws
1Estonia wins

1 meeting since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 3 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League Estonia 1-0 Luxembourg

Table

League C - Group 4

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Iceland 4 220 7:1 +6 8
2 Estonia 4 130 2:1 +1 6
3 Bulgaria 4 112 3:5 -2 4
4 Luxembourg 4 103 2:7 -5 3

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

More UEFA Nations League matches

All fixtures

Times are UTC.