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Brasileirão Série A · Matchday 35

Grêmio vs Bahia: Match Preview & Stats

Grêmio crest Grêmio
vs
Bahia crest Bahia
Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul

Our picks

Model predictions are published 48 hours before kick-off

To take in the latest form and rest days, the predictions for this match come out on . (If either team plays another match in between, they come out once that match is over.)

See today's ready predictions →

Our record

  • Grêmio: 2 of 3 right
  • Bahia: 2 of 3 right

Our result picks in each club's earlier matches on this site.

Match facts

Competition
Brasileirão Série A, Matchday 35
Kick-off
Local time
21:30 (Brasília time)
Venue
Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul
Referee
Davi de Oliveira Lacerda (4.6 yellow cards per match over the last 50 matches)
Since last match
Grêmio: 11 days (Copa do Brasil) · Flamengo (3‑1) Bahia: 13 days (Brasileirão Série A) · Cruzeiro (3‑2)
Next match
Grêmio: 4 days (Brasileirão Série A) later · Santos Bahia: 2 days (Brasileirão Série A) later · Coritiba

Last starting XI

Grêmio 4-1-4-1

  1. 12 Grando
  2. 14 Rocha
  3. 6 Martins
  4. 4 Kannemann
  5. 54 Gabriel
  6. 8 Noriega
  7. 11 Tetê
  8. 20 Villasanti
  9. 17 Dodi
  10. 38 Paulista
  11. 22 Braithwaite

Coach: Renato Gaúcho at Flamengo, 1-3 · Série A · 4 Nov

Bahia 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Ronaldo
  2. 44 Victor
  3. 33 Duarte
  4. 4 Kanu
  5. 46 Juba
  6. 14 Erick
  7. 5 Acevedo
  8. 99 Olivera
  9. 10 Ribeiro
  10. 11 Nestor
  11. 9 Véliz

Coach: Rogério Ceni at Cruzeiro, 2-3 · Série A · 6 Nov

Our predicted line-ups come with our picks, 48 hours before kick-off. Until then: each club's last starting XI.

Injuries and suspensions

Grêmio

  • DF Walter KannemannSuspended
  • MF Mathías VillasantiSuspended
  • MF DaniloInjured · About 1-2 weeks
  • MF Diego CaitoInjured · About 1-2 weeks
  • MF Juan NardoniInjured · Late November 2026
  • FW Cristian PavónInjured · About 1-2 weeks

Bahia

  • GK Léo VieiraInjured · Out for the season
  • DF Marco MorenoInjured · Doubtful

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Grêmio

High impact
Missing attack share 23.0%
Missing minutes share 23.0%
6 players out 4 regular starters out
Key absences:
  • FW Cristian Pavón 12% attack · 5% mins
  • MF Mathías Villasanti 4% attack · 8% mins

Bahia

Low impact
Missing attack share 0.0%
Missing minutes share 3.0%
2 players out

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 10 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Grêmio Bahia
Box & Territory Pressure 45 49
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 75 62
Finishing Efficiency 47 52
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 57 53
Underlying Play Power 48 40
Grêmio Balanced (results match underlying play)
Bahia Balanced (results match underlying play)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 10 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Grêmio

When scoring first 40% won · 60% unbeaten (5 matches)
When conceding first 38% points rescued · 25% won (8 matches)
1st Half: 50% 2nd Half: 50%
First 15': 0% Last 15' (76-90'): 19%

Bahia

When scoring first 57% won · 86% unbeaten (7 matches)
When conceding first 50% points rescued · 33% won (6 matches)
1st Half: 68% 2nd Half: 32%
First 15': 14% Last 15' (76-90'): 18%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Grêmio

  1. 1. FW Francis Amuzu 1G · 1A
    Team attack 12.0% Team shots 15.0%
  2. 2. FW Carlos Vinícius 1G · 0A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 12.0%
  3. 3. MF Marlon 1G · 0A
    Team attack 7.0% Team shots 5.0%

Bahia

  1. 1. FW Erick Pulga 4G · 0A
    Team attack 16.0% Team shots 18.0%
  2. 2. FW Alejo Véliz 2G · 1A
    Team attack 13.0% Team shots 17.0%
  3. 3. FW Cristian Olivera 1G · 1A
    Team attack 13.0% Team shots 13.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Grêmio Bahia
Over 1.5 goals 8/10 8/10
Over 2.5 goals 3/10 7/10
Over 3.5 goals 3/10 4/10
Both teams scored 6/10 7/10
Clean sheet 4/10 1/10
Failed to score 1/10 2/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 1.3 / 1.3 1.6 / 1.7

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Grêmio

  • D 1-1 at Atlético-MG (A) Copa do Brasil · 7 Nov
  • L 1-3 at Flamengo (A) Brasileirão Série A · 4 Nov
  • W 2-0 vs Atlético-MG (H) Copa do Brasil · 1 Nov
  • W 2-0 vs Athletico Paranaense (H) Brasileirão Série A · 30 Oct
  • W 1-0 at Coritiba (A) Brasileirão Série A · 26 Oct

Bahia

  • L 2-3 at Cruzeiro (A) Brasileirão Série A · 6 Nov
  • W 3-2 vs São Paulo (H) Brasileirão Série A · 29 Oct
  • D 1-1 at Santos (A) Brasileirão Série A · 25 Oct
  • L 0-3 vs Flamengo (H) Brasileirão Série A · 18 Oct
  • W 1-0 vs Mirassol (H) Brasileirão Série A · 11 Oct

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Grêmio

Bahia

Goals in each 15-minute period, Brasileirão Série A this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Grêmio

Player G A
Carlos Vinícius (2 pens) 11 1
Cristian Pavón 3 4
Gustavo Martins 3 2
Francis Amuzu 2 4
Marlon 2 1

Bahia

Player G A
Luciano Juba (5 pens) 11 2
Jean Lucas 4 4
Erick Pulga 4 2
Alejo Véliz (1 pen) 4 1
Erick 4 1

Goals and assists in the Brasileirão Série A this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Grêmio Bahia
  • 4.5 Corners won 5.7
  • 5.5 Corners conceded 6.1
  • 2.6 Yellow cards 2.4
  • 2.5 Opponents' yellow cards 2.8

Per match in the Brasileirão Série A this season. Average per club and match: 5.3 corners, 2.4 yellow cards.

Referee: Davi de Oliveira Lacerda, 4.6 yellow cards per match over the last 50 matches.

Attack and defence ratings

GrêmioBahia
Attack 26 68 1.1 goals per match this season1.5 goals per match this season
Defence 37 47 1.4 conceded per match this season1.3 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Brasileirão Série A clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1711Elo #227 Elo rating 1760Elo #160

Head-to-head

16Grêmio wins
9draws
8Bahia wins

33 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 17 May 2026 · Brasileirão Série A Bahia 1-1 Grêmio
  • 19 Oct 2025 · Brasileirão Série A Bahia 4-0 Grêmio
  • 25 May 2025 · Brasileirão Série A Grêmio 1-0 Bahia
  • 17 Aug 2024 · Brasileirão Série A Grêmio 0-2 Bahia
  • 28 Apr 2024 · Brasileirão Série A Bahia 1-0 Grêmio

Table

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Flamengo 34 2374 71:29 +42 76
2 Palmeiras 34 21103 62:23 +39 73
3 Cruzeiro 34 18610 55:48 +7 60
4 Fluminense 34 1699 55:42 +13 57
5 Athletico Paranaense 34 15910 51:43 +8 54
6 Bahia 34 14119 50:45 +5 53
7 Atlético-MG 34 14812 44:40 +4 50
8 RB Bragantino 34 13813 44:39 +5 47
9 Santos 34 121111 50:49 +1 47
10 São Paulo 34 12814 39:39 0 44
11 Botafogo 34 11914 46:53 -7 42
12 Coritiba 34 11914 40:51 -11 42
13 Vasco da Gama 33 11814 43:50 -7 41
14 Mirassol 34 101014 39:48 -9 40
15 Internacional 34 91114 38:42 -4 38
16 Vitória 34 10816 35:51 -16 38
17 Corinthians 34 91015 36:42 -6 37
18 Grêmio 34 91015 38:47 -9 37
19 Remo 34 61117 37:57 -20 29
20 Chapecoense 33 4920 33:68 -35 21

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

Season projection

Members

Where these two clubs are projected to finish in the Brasileirão Série A: average points, likely range and chances.

ClubPts Avg ptsLikely TitleLibertadoresRelegated
Grêmio 37
Bahia 53

For members

Every club's chance of every place, from our simulated seasons, updated daily.

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Times are UTC.