Championship · Matchday 16

Southampton vs Derby County: Match Preview & Stats

Southampton

Derby County

Saturday 21 November 2026, 12:30 UTC St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, Hampshire

Our picks

Model predictions are published 48 hours before kick-off

To take in the latest form and rest days, the predictions for this match come out on Thursday 19 November 2026, 12:30 UTC. (If either team plays another match in between, they come out once that match is over.)

See today's ready predictions →

Our record

Southampton: 3 of 7 right
Derby County: 4 of 7 right

Our result picks in each club's earlier matches on this site.

Match facts

Competition: Championship, Matchday 16
Kick-off: Saturday 21 November 2026, 12:30 UTC
Venue: St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, Hampshire
Since last match: Southampton: 13 days (Championship) · Preston North End (1‑0) Derby County: 14 days (Championship) · Bolton Wanderers (3‑1)
Next match: Southampton: 3 days (Championship) later · Sheffield United Derby County: 3 days (Championship) later · Wolverhampton Wanderers

Last starting XI

Southampton 4-2-3-1

1 Peretz
14 Bree
5 Stephens
13 Schlotterbeck
34 Welington
4 Downes
30 Ward-Prowse
27 Matsuki
10 Azaz
7 Scienza
11 Dobbin

Coach: Tonda Eckert at Preston North End, 0-1 · Championship · 7 Nov

Derby County 4-2-3-1

1 Zetterström
24 Nyambe
25 Duffy
28 Sanderson
14 Robinson
27 Travis
4 Ozoh
10 Brewster
8 Clark
16 Fuseini
9 Morris

Coach: John Eustace vs Bolton Wanderers, 3-1 · Championship · 6 Nov

Our predicted line-ups come with our picks, 48 hours before kick-off. Until then: each club's last starting XI.

Injuries and suspensions

Southampton

DF Keven SchlotterbeckInjured · Doubtful
MF Caspar JanderInjured · Late November 2026
FW Cyle LarinInjured · Doubtful

Derby County

DF Charlie TaylorInjured · Doubtful
DF Craig ForsythInjured · Early January 2027
DF Derry MurkinInjured · Early December 2026
DF Eiran CashinInjured · Late November 2026
DF Joe WardInjured · Doubtful
DF Ryan HedgesInjured · Doubtful
DF Sondre Klingen LangåsInjured · Early January 2027
MF Sammie SzmodicsInjured · Doubtful

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Southampton

Moderate impact

Missing attack share 15.0%

Missing minutes share 13.0%

3 players out 2 regular starters out

Key absences:

FW Cyle Larin 9% attack · 4% mins
DF Keven Schlotterbeck 4% attack · 8% mins

Derby County

High impact

Missing attack share 26.0%

Missing minutes share 25.0%

8 players out 4 regular starters out

Key absences:

MF Sammie Szmodics 13% attack · 7% mins
DF Joe Ward 6% attack · 5% mins

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 10 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Southampton Derby County

Box & Territory Pressure 54 52

Set-Piece & Corner Threat 38 54

Finishing Efficiency 63 25

Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 70 28

Underlying Play Power 63 29

Southampton Results above play quality (running hot)

Derby County Playing above results (positive regression candidate)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 10 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Southampton

When scoring first 78% won · 100% unbeaten (9 matches)

When conceding first 40% points rescued · 20% won (5 matches)

1st Half: 45% 2nd Half: 55%

First 15': 17% Last 15' (76-90'): 24%

Derby County

When scoring first 20% won · 60% unbeaten (5 matches)

When conceding first 30% points rescued · 10% won (10 matches)

1st Half: 43% 2nd Half: 57%

First 15': 7% Last 15' (76-90'): 29%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Southampton

1. MF Finn Azaz 2G · 3A

Team attack 16.0% Team shots 15.0%
2. FW Kuryu Matsuki 4G · 1A

Team attack 12.0% Team shots 13.0%
3. FW Léo Scienza 1G · 0A

Team attack 9.0% Team shots 12.0%

Derby County

1. MF Bobby Clark 2G · 0A

Team attack 15.0% Team shots 17.0%
2. FW Carlton Morris 0G · 1A

Team attack 12.0% Team shots 12.0%
3. FW Mohammed Fuseini 1G · 2A

Team attack 12.0% Team shots 10.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Scoring trends

Scoring trends	Southampton	Derby County
Over 1.5 goals	6/10	8/10
Over 2.5 goals	5/10	5/10
Over 3.5 goals	4/10	4/10
Both teams scored	6/10	7/10
Clean sheet	3/10	0/10
Failed to score	2/10	3/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded)	1.8 / 0.9	0.9 / 2.0

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Southampton

L 0-1 at Preston North End (A) Championship · 7 Nov
D 1-1 at West Bromwich Albion (A) Championship · 3 Nov
W 4-1 vs Queens Park Rangers (H) Championship · 31 Oct
W 3-2 at West Ham United (A) Championship · 24 Oct
D 0-0 vs Bolton Wanderers (H) Championship · 17 Oct

Derby County

W 3-1 vs Bolton Wanderers (H) Championship · 6 Nov
L 0-4 vs Norwich City (H) Championship · 3 Nov
L 1-4 at Millwall (A) Championship · 31 Oct
D 1-1 at Sheffield United (A) Championship · 24 Oct
L 0-1 vs Stoke City (H) Championship · 17 Oct

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Southampton

1-15 minutes: 5 scored, 2 conceded
16-30 minutes: 2 scored, 4 conceded
31-45 minutes: 6 scored, 2 conceded
46-60 minutes: 6 scored, 2 conceded
61-75 minutes: 3 scored, 2 conceded
76-90 minutes: 7 scored, 3 conceded

Derby County

1-15 minutes: 1 scored, 5 conceded
16-30 minutes: 3 scored, 6 conceded
31-45 minutes: 2 scored, 7 conceded
46-60 minutes: 3 scored, 1 conceded
61-75 minutes: 1 scored, 4 conceded
76-90 minutes: 4 scored, 7 conceded

Goals in each 15-minute period, Championship this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Southampton

Player	G	A
Cyle Larin	7	0
Kuryu Matsuki	4	1
Finn Azaz	3	5
Léo Scienza (1 pen)	2	2
James Bree	2	1

Derby County

Player	G	A
Bobby Clark	3	2
Sammie Szmodics	3	1
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen	2	0
Carlton Morris	1	2
Mohammed Fuseini	1	2

Goals and assists in the Championship this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Southampton Derby County

5.6 Corners won 5.4
4.6 Corners conceded 5.3
1.7 Yellow cards 2.1
2.7 Opponents' yellow cards 1.6

Per match in the Championship this season. Average per club and match: 5.2 corners, 1.9 yellow cards.

Attack and defence ratings

SouthamptonDerby County

Attack 96 26 1.9 goals per match this season0.9 goals per match this season

Defence 78 22 1.0 conceded per match this season2.0 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Championship clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1811Elo #123 Elo rating 1625Elo #311

Head-to-head

2Southampton wins

4draws

0Derby County wins

6 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

11 Apr 2026 · Championship Southampton 2-1 Derby County
4 Oct 2025 · Championship Derby County 1-1 Southampton
16 Jan 2019 · FA Cup Southampton 2-2 Derby County
5 Jan 2019 · FA Cup Derby County 2-2 Southampton
18 Feb 2012 · Championship Southampton 4-0 Derby County

Table

Championship: Table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Birmingham City	15	8	5	2	28:14	+14	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	30:19	+11	29
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	24:18	+6	29
4	Southampton	15	8	4	3	29:15	+14	28
5	Wolverhampton Wanderers	15	8	4	3	26:18	+8	28
6	West Bromwich Albion	15	8	4	3	23:15	+8	28
7	Swansea City	15	8	2	5	22:18	+4	26
8	Queens Park Rangers	15	6	6	3	24:18	+6	24
9	West Ham United	15	6	5	4	37:23	+14	23
10	Sheffield United	15	6	4	5	21:19	+2	22
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	20:18	+2	22
12	Norwich City	15	7	0	8	32:24	+8	21
13	Blackburn Rovers	15	6	3	6	22:23	-1	21
14	Cardiff City	15	4	6	5	27:27	0	18
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	18:20	-2	18
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	23:27	-4	18
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	16:24	-8	18
18	Bolton Wanderers	15	5	2	8	20:29	-9	17
19	Charlton Athletic	15	4	5	6	13:23	-10	17
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	13:23	-10	15
21	Lincoln City	15	4	3	8	15:26	-11	15
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	22:31	-9	10
23	Derby County	15	2	4	9	14:30	-16	10
24	Preston North End	15	2	2	11	13:30	-17	8

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

Season projection

Members

Where these two clubs are projected to finish in the Championship: average points, likely range and chances.

Club	Pts	Avg pts	Likely	Title	Promoted	Play-offs	Relegated
Southampton	28
Derby County	10

For members

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Times are UTC.