Liga MX · Matchday 7 Querétaro FC vs Monterrey Prediction, Match Preview & Stats
Our picks
- Result
Monterrey win Model probability
Querétaro FC 32% Draw 29% Monterrey 40% - Double chance Querétaro FC or Monterrey (12)Model probability Querétaro FC / Draw 60% Querétaro FC / Monterrey 71% Draw / Monterrey 68%
- Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.5Model probability
- More cornersMonterrey Model probability Querétaro FC Level Monterrey
- Yellow cards Around the league average(league 3.9)Model probability Over 3.5 Over 4.5 Over 5.5
- Corners Around the league average(league 11.0)Model probability Over 8.5 Over 9.5 Over 10.5
Most Likely Scorelines
Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)
- #1 1‑2
- #2 1‑1
- #3 0‑1
Key Model Drivers
Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick
- Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Strong support
- Querétaro FC: Home advantage in this competition Low counter
- Travel distance and venue altitude factor Low counter
See exactly how confident our model is
Both teams to score, over/under 2.5 goals, cards and corners: these probabilities are for members until the match is over.
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All probabilities
Result after 90 minutes
Querétaro FC 32% Monterrey 40% Our pick Double chance
1X · Querétaro FC or draw60%
12 · Querétaro FC or Monterrey71%
X2 · Monterrey or draw68%
Both teams to score
Yes
No
Goals over/under 2.5
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Yellow cards
Expected
Over 3.5 / under ·
Over 4.5 / under ·
Over 5.5 / under ·
Corners
Expected Querétaro FC – Monterrey
Over 8.5 / under ·
Over 9.5 / under ·
Over 10.5 / under ·
More corners
Querétaro FC
Level
Monterrey
Why this pick?
Monterrey are the pick because our model rates them the stronger side, with Querétaro FC sitting below the Liga MX average. The obvious counterweight is that Querétaro play at home, and the trip takes Monterrey to the altitude of the Estadio Corregidora. The call survives because the gap in attacking quality is wide — Monterrey's attack rating stands at 82, Querétaro's at 6 — and because Querétaro's last five matches have all ended in defeat, with the chances they concede over that run clearly above the league average. Monterrey have also won 19 of the 32 meetings since 2010. Narrow, but it holds.
What this match changes
- Querétaro FC LiguillaNow20% Win50%Draw9%Defeat0%
- Monterrey LiguillaNow44% Win77%Draw35%Defeat13%
Each club's chance before the match and after a win, a draw or a defeat, from our 10,000 simulated seasons (updated daily).
Our record
When our result pick had under 40%, it came true 43% of the time (125 settled matches).
- Querétaro FC: 3 of 4 right
- Monterrey: 2 of 4 right
Our result picks in each club's earlier matches on this site.
Match facts
- Competition
- Liga MX, Matchday 7
- Kick-off
- Local time
- 17:00 (Mexico City time)
- Venue
- Estadio Corregidora, Santiago de Querétaro
- Since last match
- Querétaro FC: 5 days (Liga MX) · Puebla (0‑2) Monterrey: 6 days (Liga MX) · Toluca (4‑0)
- Next match
- Querétaro FC: 8 days (Liga MX) later · Necaxa Monterrey: 7 days (Liga MX) later · Pumas
Predicted line-ups
Querétaro FC 4-2-3-1
- 25 Allison
- 24 Duarte
- 13 Reyes
- 2 Abascia
- 27 Parra
- 4 García
- 5 Homenchenko
- 7 Benito
- 11 Coronel
- 17 Muñoz
- 9 Ávila
Coach: Esteban González Last match: 
vs Puebla, 0-2 · Liga MX · 9 Nov
Monterrey 4-2-3-1
- 1 Andrada
- 2 Chávez
- 4 Guzmán
- 5 Ambríz
- 3 Arteaga
- 8 Torres
- 25 Pineda
- 18 Garza
- 9 Rossi
- 7 Ocampos
- 9 Cuypers
Coach: Matías Almeyda Last match: 
at Toluca, 0-4 · Liga MX · 8 Nov
Our model's guess: the XIs of each club's recent matches, those of the same competition counting most, without the injured and suspended. On past matches it named 8.4 of the 11 starters on average. The official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.
Injuries and suspensions
Querétaro FC
- MF Erik DueñasInjured · Doubtful
- FW Jean UnjanqueInjured · Doubtful
Monterrey
- DF Carlos SalcedoSuspended · Mid November 2026
- FW Uroš DjurdjevicInjured · Doubtful
Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.
Missing Players Impact
Querétaro FC
Low impact Monterrey
Moderate impact - DF Carlos Salcedo 2% attack · 5% mins
Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 10 matches accounted for by unavailable players.
Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)
Querétaro FC Monterrey Querétaro FC Playing above results (positive regression candidate) Monterrey Playing above results (positive regression candidate) OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 10 matches before kick-off.
Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing
Querétaro FC
Monterrey
Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.
Key Attacking Threats
Querétaro FC
- 1. MF Mateo Coronel 3G · 2ATeam attack 22.0% Team shots 26.0%
- 2. FW Alí Ávila 3G · 0ATeam attack 14.0% Team shots 14.0%
- 3. MF Santiago Homenchenko 3G · 1ATeam attack 14.0% Team shots 13.0%
Monterrey
- 1. FW Lucas Ocampos 2G · 2ATeam attack 17.0% Team shots 22.0%
- 2. FW Hugo Cuypers 4G · 0ATeam attack 17.0% Team shots 13.0%
- 3. MF Diego Rossi 3G · 0ATeam attack 11.0% Team shots 12.0%
Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.
Scoring trends
| Scoring trends | Querétaro FC | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 9/10 | 7/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 5/10 | 5/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4/10 | 4/10 |
| Both teams scored | 5/10 | 5/10 |
| Clean sheet | 3/10 | 2/10 |
| Failed to score | 2/10 | 4/10 |
| Goals per match (scored / conceded) | 1.2 / 1.7 | 1.3 / 1.7 |
Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.
Form guide
Querétaro FC
- L 0-2 vs Puebla (H) Liga MX · 9 Nov
- L 1-3 at
FC Juárez (A) Liga MX · 31 Oct - L 1-3 vs
Cruz Azul (H) Liga MX · 26 Oct - L 1-2 at
Atlético de San Luis (A) Liga MX · 21 Oct - L 0-5 at
Santos Laguna (A) Liga MX · 17 Oct
Monterrey
- L 0-4 at Toluca (A) Liga MX · 8 Nov
- D 3-3 vs
Tijuana (H) Liga MX · 1 Nov - L 0-1 vs
Chivas (H) Liga MX · 25 Oct - W 4-1 at Puebla (A) Liga MX · 22 Oct
- W 2-1 vs
Pachuca (H) Liga MX · 19 Oct
Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.
When the goals come
Querétaro FC
- 1-15 minutes: 2 scored, 2 conceded
- 16-30 minutes: 3 scored, 3 conceded
- 31-45 minutes: 2 scored, 7 conceded
- 46-60 minutes: 3 scored, 2 conceded
- 61-75 minutes: 3 scored, 4 conceded
- 76-90 minutes: 5 scored, 5 conceded
Monterrey
- 1-15 minutes: 4 scored, 5 conceded
- 16-30 minutes: 9 scored, 2 conceded
- 31-45 minutes: 5 scored, 5 conceded
- 46-60 minutes: 1 scored, 4 conceded
- 61-75 minutes: 4 scored, 3 conceded
- 76-90 minutes: 3 scored, 6 conceded
Goals in each 15-minute period, Liga MX this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.
Top scorers
Querétaro FC
| Player | G | A |
|---|---|---|
| Alí Ávila (1 pen) | 6 | 0 |
| Santiago Homenchenko (3 pens) | 5 | 2 |
| Mateo Coronel | 4 | 2 |
| Iker Benito | 1 | 3 |
| Carlo García | 1 | 0 |
Monterrey
| Player | G | A |
|---|---|---|
| Lucas Ocampos (2 pens) | 7 | 3 |
| Hugo Cuypers (1 pen) | 6 | 1 |
| Diego Rossi | 5 | 3 |
| Jesús Corona | 2 | 2 |
| Roberto de la Rosa | 2 | 0 |
Goals and assists in the Liga MX this season.
Corners and yellow cards
Querétaro FC Monterrey - 5.2 Corners won 6.6
- 6.1 Corners conceded 3.5
- 2.9 Yellow cards 2.0
- 1.8 Opponents' yellow cards 1.7
Per match in the Liga MX this season. Average per club and match: 5.5 corners, 1.9 yellow cards.
Attack and defence ratings
Querétaro FCMonterrey0 to 100 against this season's Liga MX clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.
Head-to-head
7Querétaro FC wins19Monterrey wins32 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.
- 5 Mar 2026 · Liga MX Monterrey 4-0 Querétaro FC
- 14 Sep 2025 · Liga MX Querétaro FC 0-1 Monterrey
- 16 Feb 2025 · Liga MX Querétaro FC 2-4 Monterrey
- 21 Jul 2024 · Liga MX Monterrey 2-1 Querétaro FC
- 25 Jan 2024 · Liga MX Monterrey 1-1 Querétaro FC
Table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 37:26 | +11 | 32 |
| 2 |  CF América | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 38:23 | +15 | 30 |
| 3 | Chivas | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 26:15 | +11 | 30 |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 35:21 | +14 | 27 |
| 5 |  Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27:30 | -3 | 27 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23:20 | +3 | 25 |
| 7 |  León | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23:21 | +2 | 23 |
| 8 | Pachuca | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 29:20 | +9 | 22 |
| 9 | Tijuana | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 25:22 | +3 | 22 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 26:25 | +1 | 21 |
| 11 |  Pumas | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24:26 | -2 | 21 |
| 12 | Querétaro FC | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 18:23 | -5 | 20 |
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19:23 | -4 | 19 |
| 14 | Atlético de San Luis | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19:24 | -5 | 19 |
| 15 |  Tigres | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 17:25 | -8 | 15 |
| 16 |  Atlante | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16:26 | -10 | 14 |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17:28 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 | FC Juárez | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 13:34 | -21 | 11 |
Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table
Season projection
MembersWhere these two clubs are projected to finish in the Liga MX: average points, likely range and chances.
| Club | Pts | Avg pts | Likely | 1st | Liguilla |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Querétaro FC | 20 | ||||
| Monterrey | 21 |
For members
Every club's chance of every place, from our simulated seasons, updated daily.
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Times are UTC.