Ligue 1 · Matchday 11

Marseille vs Le Mans: Match Preview & Stats

Marseille

Le Mans

Sunday 22 November 2026, 19:45 UTC CEPAC Vélodrome, Marseille

Our picks

Model predictions are published 48 hours before kick-off

To take in the latest form and rest days, the predictions for this match come out on Friday 20 November 2026, 19:45 UTC. (If either team plays another match in between, they come out once that match is over.)

See today's ready predictions →

Our record

Marseille: 4 of 8 right
Le Mans: 3 of 5 right

Our result picks in each club's earlier matches on this site.

Match facts

Competition: Ligue 1, Matchday 11
Kick-off: Sunday 22 November 2026, 19:45 UTC
Venue: CEPAC Vélodrome, Marseille
Since last match: Marseille: 14 days (Ligue 1) · Lens (1‑2) Le Mans: 14 days (Ligue 1) · Monaco (1‑1)
Next match: Marseille: 3 days (Europa League) later · Levski Sofia Le Mans: 6 days (Ligue 1) later

Last starting XI

Marseille 4-2-3-1

1 De Lange
22 Weah
4 Egan-Riley
21 Aguerd
25 Garcia
23 Højbjerg
6 Nnadi
77 Harit
8 Abdelli
14 Paixão
9 Gouiri

Coach: Bruno Génésio at Lens, 2-1 · Ligue 1 · 8 Nov

Le Mans 3-1-4-2

98 Kocik
26 Bamba
17 Yohou
5 Voyer
29 Bretelle
18 Buadés
23 Traoré
10 Vercruysse
22 Calodat
14 Mafouta
25 Gueye

Coach: Patrick Videira vs Monaco, 1-1 · Ligue 1 · 8 Nov

Our predicted line-ups come with our picks, 48 hours before kick-off. Until then: each club's last starting XI.

Injuries and suspensions

Marseille

DF Derek CorneliusInjured · Early January 2027
DF EmersonInjured · About 1-2 weeks

Le Mans

DF Théo EyoumInjured · Mid November 2026
MF Adil BourabaaInjured · Early January 2027
MF Djibril SidibéInjured · Late January 2027

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Marseille

Moderate impact

Missing attack share 5.0%

Missing minutes share 5.0%

2 players out 1 regular starter out

Key absences:

DF Emerson 5% attack · 4% mins

Le Mans

Moderate impact

Missing attack share 12.0%

Missing minutes share 8.0%

3 players out 1 regular starter out

Key absences:

MF Adil Bourabaa 11% attack · 4% mins

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 10 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Marseille Le Mans

Box & Territory Pressure 47 34

Set-Piece & Corner Threat 42 38

Finishing Efficiency 75 36

Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 78 33

Underlying Play Power 30 34

Marseille Results above play quality (running hot)

Le Mans Balanced (results match underlying play)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 10 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Marseille

When scoring first 100% won · 100% unbeaten (7 matches)

When conceding first 12% points rescued · 12% won (8 matches)

1st Half: 41% 2nd Half: 59%

First 15': 22% Last 15' (76-90'): 26%

Le Mans

When scoring first 25% won · 100% unbeaten (4 matches)

When conceding first 33% points rescued · 0% won (6 matches)

1st Half: 50% 2nd Half: 50%

First 15': 17% Last 15' (76-90'): 8%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Marseille

1. FW Amine Gouiri 4G · 3A

Team attack 18.0% Team shots 13.0%
2. FW Igor Paixão 2G · 1A

Team attack 16.0% Team shots 22.0%
3. MF Himad Abdelli 3G · 1A

Team attack 11.0% Team shots 7.0%

Le Mans

1. FW Louis Mafouta 4G · 1A

Team attack 21.0% Team shots 19.0%
2. FW Lucas Calodat 1G · 2A

Team attack 12.0% Team shots 7.0%
3. FW Dame Gueye 1G · 0A

Team attack 9.0% Team shots 12.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Scoring trends

Scoring trends	Marseille	Le Mans
Over 1.5 goals	7/10	10/10
Over 2.5 goals	5/10	6/10
Over 3.5 goals	3/10	4/10
Both teams scored	5/10	8/10
Clean sheet	3/10	0/10
Failed to score	2/10	2/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded)	1.8 / 1.4	1.2 / 1.9

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Marseille

W 2-1 at Lens (A) Ligue 1 · 8 Nov
W 1-0 at Bayer Leverkusen (A) Europa League · 5 Nov
W 2-0 vs Toulouse (H) Ligue 1 · 1 Nov
W 4-3 vs Le Havre (H) Ligue 1 · 25 Oct
L 0-1 at Sturm Graz (A) Europa League · 22 Oct

Le Mans

D 1-1 vs Monaco (H) Ligue 1 · 8 Nov
L 0-2 at Troyes (A) Ligue 1 · 31 Oct
D 1-1 at Auxerre (A) Ligue 1 · 25 Oct
L 0-3 vs Toulouse (H) Ligue 1 · 16 Oct
L 1-3 at Paris Saint-Germain (A) Ligue 1 · 10 Oct

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Marseille

1-15 minutes: 4 scored, 3 conceded
16-30 minutes: 1 scored, 2 conceded
31-45 minutes: 3 scored, 0 conceded
46-60 minutes: 6 scored, 2 conceded
61-75 minutes: 2 scored, 3 conceded
76-90 minutes: 6 scored, 4 conceded

Le Mans

1-15 minutes: 2 scored, 1 conceded
16-30 minutes: 1 scored, 2 conceded
31-45 minutes: 3 scored, 5 conceded
46-60 minutes: 5 scored, 4 conceded
61-75 minutes: 0 scored, 4 conceded
76-90 minutes: 1 scored, 3 conceded

Goals in each 15-minute period, Ligue 1 this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Marseille

Player	G	A
Amine Gouiri (1 pen)	7	3
Amine Harit	3	1
Himad Abdelli (1 pen)	3	0
Igor Paixão	2	1
Keyliane Abdallah	2	0

Le Mans

Player	G	A
Louis Mafouta (1 pen)	4	1
Adil Bourabaa	3	2
Lucas Calodat	1	2
Dame Gueye	1	0
Erwan Colas	1	0

Goals and assists in the Ligue 1 this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Marseille Le Mans

4.5 Corners won 3.0
4.1 Corners conceded 5.9
1.4 Yellow cards 2.3
2.1 Opponents' yellow cards 1.7

Per match in the Ligue 1 this season. Average per club and match: 4.5 corners, 1.7 yellow cards.

Attack and defence ratings

MarseilleLe Mans

Attack 94 18 2.2 goals per match this season1.2 goals per match this season

Defence 76 6 1.4 conceded per match this season1.9 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Ligue 1 clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1935Elo #51 Elo rating 1735Elo #190

Head-to-head

Marseille and Le Mans have not met in our records since 2010.

Table

Ligue 1: Table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint-Germain	10	7	2	1	22:10	+12	23
2	Lille	10	6	3	1	14:7	+7	21
3	Paris FC	10	6	2	2	17:10	+7	20
4	Marseille	10	6	0	4	22:14	+8	18
5	Lyon	10	5	2	3	15:9	+6	17
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	15:12	+3	17
7	Monaco	10	4	4	2	13:11	+2	16
8	Rennes	10	5	1	4	21:21	0	16
9	Brest	10	4	3	3	18:12	+6	15
10	Lorient	10	4	3	3	9:8	+1	15
11	Lens	10	4	1	5	17:15	+2	13
12	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	15:14	+1	13
13	Strasbourg	10	3	1	6	18:22	-4	10
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	13:24	-11	10
15	Le Mans	10	1	5	4	12:19	-7	8
16	Angers	10	2	2	6	9:19	-10	8
17	Troyes	10	2	2	6	7:17	-10	8
18	Le Havre	10	0	2	8	9:22	-13	2

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

Season projection

Members

Where these two clubs are projected to finish in the Ligue 1: average points, likely range and chances.

Club	Pts	Avg pts	Likely	Title	Top 4	Rel. play-off	Relegated
Marseille	18
Le Mans	8

For members

Every club's chance of every place, from our simulated seasons, updated daily.

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Times are UTC.