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MLS · Matchday 32

Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Nashville SC crest Nashville SC
vs
Philadelphia Union crest Philadelphia Union
GEODIS Park, Nashville, Tennessee

Our picks

Free picks
  • Result Free pick Nashville SC win
    Model probability 31% 63% 12%
  • Double chance Free pick Nashville SC or Philadelphia Union (12)
    Model probability 56% 23% 47%
  • Both teams to score Free pick Yes
    Model probability 20%
  • More corners Free pick Nashville SC
    Model probability 42% 11% 94%
  • Yellow cards Free pick Around the league average(league 3.9)
    Model probability Over 3.5 92%Over 4.5 61%Over 5.5 58%
  • Corners Free pick Around the league average(league 10.0)
    Model probability Over 8.5 98%Over 9.5 95%Over 10.5 22%

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Why this pick?

Our model goes with Nashville SC on the strength of what they create: over the last five matches their big chances have run a cut above the competition's norm, they spend plenty of time in the opposition box, and home advantage adds to it. The counterweight is Philadelphia, whose long-run, xG-based strength rating puts them a clear way above the MLS average and whose attack is the sharper. What keeps the pick upright is Nashville's defence, the best in the league by our rating with only 23 goals conceded, and recent numbers that hold the big chances they concede clearly below par. The call is a moderate one.

Both teams to score: Our goal model sees goals at both ends: Philadelphia have been scoring and conceding freely of late, and both teams' attacking numbers sit above the league average. Nashville's run of clean sheets is the one caveat.

Match summary

Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union is the Matchday 32 fixture in MLS on Thursday 29 October 2026, and our model backs Nashville SC to win at GEODIS Park. The double chance pick is either side to win, with no draw.

Form guide

Nashville SC

  • W 2-0 at CF Montréal (A) MLS · 24 Oct
  • D 1-1 at San Jose Earthquakes (A) MLS · 18 Oct
  • W 4-0 vs Sporting Kansas City (H) MLS · 15 Oct
  • W 4-1 at Austin FC (A) MLS · 11 Oct
  • W 2-0 vs Toronto FC (H) MLS · 27 Sep

Philadelphia Union

  • L 1-2 vs New England Revolution (H) MLS · 24 Oct
  • D 2-2 vs Charlotte FC (H) MLS · 17 Oct
  • W 3-1 at Chicago Fire FC (A) MLS · 15 Oct
  • W 2-1 vs Real Salt Lake (H) MLS · 10 Oct
  • W 4-2 vs Orlando City (H) MLS · 26 Sep

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Attack and defence ratings

Nashville SCPhiladelphia Union
Attack 72 93 2.1 goals per match this season2.0 goals per match this season
Defence 100 76 0.7 conceded per match this season1.6 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's MLS clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1849Elo #89 Elo rating 1786Elo #139

Head-to-head

4Nashville SC wins
4draws
4Philadelphia Union wins

12 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 2 May 2026 · MLS Philadelphia Union 0-0 Nashville SC
  • 17 Sep 2025 · US Open Cup Nashville SC 3-1 Philadelphia Union
  • 6 Jul 2025 · MLS Nashville SC 1-0 Philadelphia Union
  • 16 Mar 2025 · MLS Philadelphia Union 1-3 Nashville SC
  • 20 Jul 2024 · MLS Philadelphia Union 3-0 Nashville SC

MLS so far

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Nashville SC 31 2173 66:23 +43 70
6 Philadelphia Union 31 13711 62:50 +12 46

Positions in our table of 15 clubs, before kick-off. Full table

Match facts

Competition
MLS, Matchday 32
Kick-off
Venue
GEODIS Park, Nashville, Tennessee
Since last match
Nashville SC: 4 days (MLS)
Philadelphia Union: 4 days (MLS)
Next match
Nashville SC: 3 days (MLS) later
Philadelphia Union: 2 days (MLS) later

Questions and answers

Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union prediction: who will win?

Our model picks Nashville SC to win, and it is a call with a fair margin. The main reason is recent attacking play (shots and chances). Our double chance pick is Nashville SC or Philadelphia Union (no draw).

What time is Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union and where is it played?

Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union kicks off at 00:30 UK time (00:30 UTC) on Thursday 29 October 2026 at GEODIS Park, Nashville, Tennessee. Local time: 20:30 (US Eastern time). It is a MLS match (Matchday 32).

Will both teams score in Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union?

Yes: our model expects both teams to score, mainly because of our goal model's view of the matchup. We only give this pick when our model's view is clear.

What is the recent form of Nashville SC and Philadelphia Union?

Nashville SC have 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches in all competitions, and are unbeaten in 5. Philadelphia Union have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches in all competitions, and lost their latest match.

What is the head-to-head record between Nashville SC and Philadelphia Union?

Nashville SC and Philadelphia Union have met 12 times in our records since 2010: Nashville SC won 4, Philadelphia Union won 4 and 4 ended level. Last meeting: 2026-05-02, Philadelphia Union 0-0 Nashville SC.

Who is the referee for Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union?

The referee is Pierre-Luc Lauzière. In the last 16 matches we have on record, Pierre-Luc Lauzière has averaged 3.4 yellow cards per match.

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Times are UTC.