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MLS · Matchday 32

Minnesota United vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Minnesota United crest Minnesota United
vs
Sporting Kansas City crest Sporting Kansas City
Allianz Field, Saint Paul, Minnesota

Our picks

Free picks
  • Result Free pick Minnesota United win
    Model probability 24% 12% 99%
  • Double chance Free pick Minnesota United or draw (1X)
    Model probability 16% 73% 92%
  • Both teams to score Free pick Yes
    Model probability 81%
  • More corners Free pick Minnesota United
    Model probability 98% 54% 77%
  • Yellow cards Free pick Below the league average(league 3.9)
    Model probability Over 3.5 84%Over 4.5 38%Over 5.5 32%
  • Corners Free pick Around the league average(league 10.0)
    Model probability Over 8.5 85%Over 9.5 68%Over 10.5 51%

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Why this pick?

Our model goes with Minnesota United mainly on strength: it rates them well above Sporting Kansas City on our expected-goals-based rating and puts the visitors well below the MLS average. The main counterweight is the head-to-head, where Kansas City lead 14‑10 and won the last meeting 2‑1 in July. And yet the form points the other way: Kansas City have lost four of their last five, sit bottom with 21 defeats and 77 goals conceded, and their defence rating is at the floor. Minnesota are unbeaten in four and, at home, shoot more and get into the box more than the league average. The call is clear.

Both teams to score: Our model also expects both teams to score: Minnesota's shot volume and time in the box sit above the league norm and their recent expected-goals numbers back it, while Kansas City have enough going forward and concede too many to keep it clean.

Match summary

Minnesota United vs Sporting Kansas City is the MLS Matchday 32 fixture at Allianz Field on Thursday 29 October 2026, and our model goes with a home win, adding Minnesota United win or draw as the double chance.

Form guide

Minnesota United

  • D 0-0 at Houston Dynamo FC (A) MLS · 25 Oct
  • W 3-2 vs St. Louis City (H) MLS · 17 Oct
  • D 2-2 at Colorado Rapids (A) MLS · 15 Oct
  • D 2-2 vs Houston Dynamo FC (H) MLS · 11 Oct
  • L 1-3 at Seattle Sounders FC (A) MLS · 27 Sep

Sporting Kansas City

  • L 1-2 vs Austin FC (H) MLS · 25 Oct
  • L 1-3 vs Real Salt Lake (H) MLS · 18 Oct
  • L 0-4 at Nashville SC (A) MLS · 15 Oct
  • D 3-3 vs Portland Timbers (H) MLS · 11 Oct
  • L 1-2 at Seattle Sounders FC (A) MLS · 2 Oct

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Attack and defence ratings

Minnesota UnitedSporting Kansas City
Attack 45 17 1.5 goals per match this season1.2 goals per match this season
Defence 38 0 1.8 conceded per match this season2.5 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's MLS clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1698Elo #239 Elo rating 1547Elo #356

Head-to-head

10Minnesota United wins
6draws
14Sporting Kansas City wins

30 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 23 Jul 2026 · MLS Sporting Kansas City 2-1 Minnesota United
  • 5 Oct 2025 · MLS Minnesota United 3-0 Sporting Kansas City
  • 16 Mar 2025 · MLS Sporting Kansas City 3-3 Minnesota United
  • 22 Sep 2024 · MLS Sporting Kansas City 0-2 Minnesota United
  • 2 Jun 2024 · MLS Minnesota United 3-1 Sporting Kansas City

MLS so far

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
13 Minnesota United 31 81112 47:55 -8 35
15 Sporting Kansas City 31 6421 37:77 -40 22

Positions in our table of 15 clubs, before kick-off. Full table

Match facts

Competition
MLS, Matchday 32
Kick-off
Venue
Allianz Field, Saint Paul, Minnesota
Since last match
Minnesota United: 3 days (MLS)
Sporting Kansas City: 3 days (MLS)
Next match
Minnesota United: 4 days (MLS) later
Sporting Kansas City: 2 days (MLS) later

Questions and answers

Minnesota United vs Sporting Kansas City prediction: who will win?

Our model picks Minnesota United to win, and it is a clear call. The main reason is our long-run strength ratings of the two sides. Our double chance pick is Minnesota United or draw.

What time is Minnesota United vs Sporting Kansas City and where is it played?

Minnesota United vs Sporting Kansas City kicks off at 00:30 UK time (00:30 UTC) on Thursday 29 October 2026 at Allianz Field, Saint Paul, Minnesota. Local time: 20:30 (US Eastern time). It is a MLS match (Matchday 32).

Will both teams score in Minnesota United vs Sporting Kansas City?

Yes: our model expects both teams to score, mainly because of our goal model's view of the matchup. We only give this pick when our model's view is clear.

What is the recent form of Minnesota United and Sporting Kansas City?

Minnesota United have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches in all competitions, and are unbeaten in 4. Sporting Kansas City have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches in all competitions, and have lost their last 3.

What is the head-to-head record between Minnesota United and Sporting Kansas City?

Minnesota United and Sporting Kansas City have met 30 times in our records since 2010: Minnesota United won 10, Sporting Kansas City won 14 and 6 ended level. Last meeting: 2026-07-23, Sporting Kansas City 2-1 Minnesota United.

Who is the referee for Minnesota United vs Sporting Kansas City?

The referee is Serhii Boiko. In the last 14 matches we have on record, Serhii Boiko has averaged 3.4 yellow cards per match.

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Times are UTC.