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NBA · Regular season

Milwaukee Bucks vs Atlanta Hawks: Preview and Stats

Milwaukee Bucks 1-11
vs
Atlanta Hawks 7-5
Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee

Our picks

Our picks for Milwaukee Bucks vs Atlanta Hawks come out after the official NBA injury report, at most 48 hours before tip-off, and at the latest (3 hours before tip-off).

We are waiting for the result of a team's previous game.

Our NBA model track record for this matchup

Our winner picks on these teams

  • Milwaukee Bucks 10 of 12 right (83%)
  • Atlanta Hawks 7 of 12 right (58%)

Settled NBA winner picks since 21 Oct 2026.

Game details

Stage
NBA, Regular season
Tip-off
Arena
Fiserv Forum
City
Milwaukee
Since last match
Milwaukee Bucks: Orlando Magic Atlanta Hawks: Chicago Bulls
Next match
Milwaukee Bucks: Miami Heat Atlanta Hawks: Oklahoma City Thunder

Missing production & availability impact

Share of last 10 games' offensive creation (PTS + AST) and minutes sidelined.

Milwaukee Bucks

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Atlanta Hawks

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Official NBA injury report

Milwaukee Bucks

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Atlanta Hawks

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Expected 8-man core rotation

Projected starters and key bench from recent usage and the official injury report.

Milwaukee Bucks

Projected Starters
  • G Tyler Herro
    30.9 MPG 20.3 PPG 4.6 RPG 4.1 APG
  • F Kyle Kuzma
    26.7 MPG 11.1 PPG 4.9 RPG 2.4 APG
  • G Jaime Jaquez Jr.
    26.6 MPG 15.2 PPG 5.0 RPG 2.6 APG
  • F-C Myles Turner
    26.2 MPG 5.7 PPG 5.9 RPG 2.9 APG
  • G Brayden Burries
    23.5 MPG 10.1 PPG 5.7 RPG 2.3 APG
Key Bench
  • G Ryan Rollins
    22.3 MPG 10.9 PPG 4.2 RPG 4.0 APG
  • G Cormac Ryan
    26.2 MPG 15.2 PPG 0.0 RPG 0.0 APG
  • G AJ Green
    18.5 MPG 6.1 PPG 1.9 RPG 1.5 APG

Atlanta Hawks

Projected Starters
  • F Jalen Johnson
    35.1 MPG 19.1 PPG 8.0 RPG 7.3 APG
  • G Nickeil Alexander-Walker
    31.4 MPG 21.8 PPG 3.2 RPG 2.3 APG
  • G Dyson Daniels
    30.6 MPG 8.7 PPG 7.2 RPG 6.1 APG
  • F-C Onyeka Okongwu
    30.4 MPG 14.6 PPG 8.8 RPG 2.6 APG
  • G CJ McCollum
    26.0 MPG 13.1 PPG 3.1 RPG 4.3 APG
Key Bench
  • G Aaron Wiggins
    25.8 MPG 14.4 PPG 4.0 RPG 2.8 APG
  • G Luguentz Dort
    25.1 MPG 9.5 PPG 3.0 RPG 1.9 APG
  • G Kingston Flemings
    22.3 MPG 9.8 PPG 2.1 RPG 4.1 APG

OptimaGoal power & pace ratings

Full NBA power ratings

Neutral-court net point rating and 48-minute tempo rank across all 30 NBA franchises.

Milwaukee Bucks

#30 of 30
Net rating -8.1 30d: -2.7
Pace: -2.1 (#22 of 30)

Atlanta Hawks

#13 of 30
Net rating +0.3 30d: -0.1
Pace: 1.7 (#3 of 30)

OptimaGoal tactical & efficiency profile (0–100)

Original 0–100 indices built from each team's last 10 played games before tip-off.

Milwaukee Bucks

Net 12
Shot quality (TS%) 21
3PT volume & accuracy 50
Ball security & passing 19
Rebounding control 38
Defensive disruption 45

ORtg 103.4 · DRtg 118.9 · Net -15.5 · TS 53.6%

Atlanta Hawks

Net 42
Shot quality (TS%) 31
3PT volume & accuracy 52
Ball security & passing 48
Rebounding control 57
Defensive disruption 39

ORtg 110.2 · DRtg 113.0 · Net -2.8 · TS 55.0%

Milwaukee Bucks · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 1W actual vs 1.7W expected (12 GP)
Atlanta Hawks · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 7W actual vs 6.7W expected (12 GP)

Halftime splits & clutch profile

Game-state outcomes and half-by-half scoring share over the last 15 games.

Milwaukee Bucks

Win rate when leading at HT 1/5 (20%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 1/10 (10%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 51.4 (47.5%) 2H: 56.8 (52.5%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 0-0 10+ pt margins: 1-11

Atlanta Hawks

Win rate when leading at HT 6/7 (86%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 1/8 (12%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 57.1 (50.3%) 2H: 56.4 (49.7%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 3-0 10+ pt margins: 2-7

Scoring environment and threshold hit counts across the last 10 games.

MILATL
Points scored / game 104.0 115.9
Points allowed / game 119.6 118.8
Average game total 223.6 234.7
Average 1st-half total 106.0 120.1
Possessions / 48 min 100.6 105.1
Games with 220+ pts 5/10 9/10
Games with 230+ pts 4/10 6/10
Games with 240+ pts 2/10 3/10
Scored 115+ pts 1/10 4/10

Schedule density & travel spot

Rest days, multi-game compression and current home/road stretch entering tip-off.

Milwaukee Bucks

1 day rest
1 in 4 nights 3 in 6 nights Homestand · Game 2

Atlanta Hawks

1 day rest
1 in 4 nights 1 in 6 nights Road trip · Game 1

Primary offensive threats

Available rotation leaders by scoring and shot share over the last 10 games.

Milwaukee Bucks

  • #1 Tyler Herro G 19.5% pts share
    20.3 PPG · 4.6 RPG · 4.1 APG · 2.7 3PM 17.4% FGA
  • #2 Jaime Jaquez Jr. G 14.6% pts share
    15.2 PPG · 5.0 RPG · 2.6 APG · 1.8 3PM 13.8% FGA
  • #3 Ryan Rollins G 10.5% pts share
    10.9 PPG · 4.2 RPG · 4.0 APG · 1.8 3PM 11.3% FGA

Atlanta Hawks

  • #1 Jalen Johnson F 16.5% pts share
    19.1 PPG · 8.0 RPG · 7.3 APG · 1.1 3PM 15.2% FGA
  • #2 Nickeil Alexander-Walker G 18.8% pts share
    21.8 PPG · 3.2 RPG · 2.3 APG · 4.0 3PM 18.2% FGA
  • #3 CJ McCollum G 11.3% pts share
    13.1 PPG · 3.1 RPG · 4.3 APG · 1.6 3PM 13.0% FGA

Last five games

Milwaukee Bucks

  • L 112-123 vs Los Angeles Lakers (H) 12 Nov
  • L 85-117 at New York Knicks (A) 11 Nov
  • L 97-117 vs Boston Celtics (H) 9 Nov
  • L 107-121 vs Toronto Raptors (H) 7 Nov
  • L 102-109 at Boston Celtics (A) 5 Nov

Atlanta Hawks

  • L 114-124 vs Los Angeles Lakers (H) 10 Nov
  • W 124-121 vs Brooklyn Nets (H) 8 Nov
  • W 139-132 vs Washington Wizards (H) 7 Nov
  • W 120-105 at Washington Wizards (A) 5 Nov
  • W 108-104 at Indiana Pacers (A) 3 Nov

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Last 10 head-to-head meetings

MIL · 5W ATL · 5W
Avg total pts: 235.2 MIL avg: 115.3 ATL avg: 119.9 225+ pt games: 6/10 MIL at home: 1-3
  • 14 Mar 2026 ATL 122‑99 MIL
  • 4 Mar 2026 MIL 113‑131 ATL
  • 19 Jan 2026 ATL 110‑112 MIL
  • 30 Mar 2025 MIL 124‑145 ATL
  • 4 Mar 2025 ATL 121‑127 MIL
  • 7 Feb 2025 ATL 115‑110 MIL
  • 14 Dec 2024 ATL 102‑110 MIL
  • 4 Dec 2024 MIL 104‑119 ATL
  • 30 Mar 2024 ATL 113‑122 MIL
  • 2 Dec 2023 MIL 132‑121 ATL

Season profile comparison

MILATL
Record 1-11 7-5
At home 1-6 3-3
On the road 0-5 4-2
Conference 15 of 15, Eastern Conference 4 of 15, Eastern Conference
Streak Lost 5 in a row –
Days of rest 1 1
Our team rating #30 of 30 #13 of 30
Pace #21 of 30 #3 of 30

Eastern Conference standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT GB Home Road L10 Streak
1 Boston Celtics 10 2 .833 – 5-0 5-2 9-1 W5
2 Philadelphia 76ers 10 3 .769 0.5 5-2 5-1 7-3 W1
3 Detroit Pistons 8 3 .727 1.5 3-2 5-1 7-3 W2
4 Atlanta Hawks 7 5 .583 3.0 3-3 4-2 5-5 L1
5 New York Knicks 6 5 .545 3.5 4-3 2-2 6-4 L1
6 Cleveland Cavaliers 6 6 .500 4.0 4-2 2-4 5-5 W1
7 Miami Heat 5 6 .455 4.5 1-3 4-3 5-5 W2
8 Toronto Raptors 5 7 .417 5.0 2-3 3-4 3-7 L3
9 Orlando Magic 4 7 .364 5.5 0-4 4-3 4-6 W2
10 Charlotte Hornets 4 8 .333 6.0 3-4 1-4 3-7 L1
11 Indiana Pacers 4 8 .333 6.0 1-4 3-4 3-7 W1
12 Washington Wizards 4 9 .308 6.5 2-3 2-6 2-8 L6
13 Brooklyn Nets 3 8 .273 6.5 1-3 2-5 3-7 W1
14 Chicago Bulls 1 9 .100 8.0 0-4 1-5 1-9 L8
15 Milwaukee Bucks 1 11 .083 9.0 1-6 0-5 1-9 L8

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

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