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NBA · Regular season

Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics: Preview and Stats

Golden State Warriors 8-4
vs
Boston Celtics 10-2
Chase Center, San Francisco

Our picks

Our picks for Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics come out after the official NBA injury report, at most 48 hours before tip-off, and at the latest (3 hours before tip-off).

We are waiting for the result of a team's previous game.

Our NBA model track record for this matchup

Our winner picks on these teams

  • Golden State Warriors 9 of 12 right (75%)
  • Boston Celtics 12 of 12 right (100%)

Settled NBA winner picks since 20 Oct 2026.

Game details

Stage
NBA, Regular season
Tip-off
Arena
Chase Center
City
San Francisco
Since last match
Golden State Warriors: Memphis Grizzlies Boston Celtics: Sacramento Kings
Next match
Golden State Warriors: Sacramento Kings Boston Celtics: Washington Wizards

Missing production & availability impact

Share of last 10 games' offensive creation (PTS + AST) and minutes sidelined.

Golden State Warriors

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Boston Celtics

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Official NBA injury report

Golden State Warriors

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Boston Celtics

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Expected 8-man core rotation

Projected starters and key bench from recent usage and the official injury report.

Golden State Warriors

Projected Starters
  • G Brandin Podziemski
    33.6 MPG 17.2 PPG 5.4 RPG 4.3 APG
  • F Yaxel Lendeborg
    31.9 MPG 23.0 PPG 7.3 RPG 3.6 APG
  • F-C Draymond Green
    27.1 MPG 3.1 PPG 5.0 RPG 7.6 APG
  • G Stephen Curry
    26.8 MPG 28.9 PPG 4.1 RPG 4.2 APG
  • G Moses Moody
    31.1 MPG 17.4 PPG 0.0 RPG 0.0 APG
Key Bench
  • G De'Anthony Melton
    22.8 MPG 11.1 PPG 4.8 RPG 2.6 APG
  • F Jimmy Butler III
    29.7 MPG 21.0 PPG 0.0 RPG 0.0 APG
  • F Georges Niang
    21.1 MPG 8.5 PPG 3.2 RPG 1.6 APG

Boston Celtics

Projected Starters
  • G-F Jayson Tatum
    33.2 MPG 26.7 PPG 6.0 RPG 7.1 APG
  • G Derrick White
    28.9 MPG 12.4 PPG 3.0 RPG 4.9 APG
  • F Paul George
    29.5 MPG 20.9 PPG 5.0 RPG 4.1 APG
  • G Payton Pritchard
    26.9 MPG 13.9 PPG 3.5 RPG 3.9 APG
  • C Neemias Queta
    22.6 MPG 9.2 PPG 7.0 RPG 1.9 APG
Key Bench
  • G Baylor Scheierman
    21.9 MPG 6.3 PPG 4.5 RPG 1.7 APG
  • G Devin Carter
    28.7 MPG 14.0 PPG 0.0 RPG 0.0 APG
  • F Sam Hauser
    21.1 MPG 8.0 PPG 3.6 RPG 1.0 APG

OptimaGoal power & pace ratings

Full NBA power ratings

Neutral-court net point rating and 48-minute tempo rank across all 30 NBA franchises.

Golden State Warriors

#10 of 30
Net rating +2.0 30d: +5.0
Pace: -2.3 (#24 of 30)

Boston Celtics

#1 of 30
Net rating +7.8 30d: -0.1
Pace: -3.9 (#29 of 30)

OptimaGoal tactical & efficiency profile (0–100)

Original 0–100 indices built from each team's last 10 played games before tip-off.

Golden State Warriors

Net 83
Shot quality (TS%) 82
3PT volume & accuracy 85
Ball security & passing 33
Rebounding control 60
Defensive disruption 61

ORtg 119.3 · DRtg 107.7 · Net +11.6 · TS 62.4%

Boston Celtics

Net 89
Shot quality (TS%) 56
3PT volume & accuracy 70
Ball security & passing 35
Rebounding control 58
Defensive disruption 72

ORtg 116.0 · DRtg 102.1 · Net +13.9 · TS 58.7%

Golden State Warriors · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 8W actual vs 8.6W expected (12 GP)
Boston Celtics · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 10W actual vs 9.7W expected (12 GP)

Halftime splits & clutch profile

Game-state outcomes and half-by-half scoring share over the last 15 games.

Golden State Warriors

Win rate when leading at HT 5/5 (100%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 2/8 (25%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 55.5 (47.2%) 2H: 62.1 (52.8%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 4-2 10+ pt margins: 5-2

Boston Celtics

Win rate when leading at HT 8/10 (80%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 2/5 (40%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 58.3 (52.7%) 2H: 52.4 (47.3%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 3-0 10+ pt margins: 6-3

Scoring environment and threshold hit counts across the last 10 games.

GSWBOS
Points scored / game 121.9 115.1
Points allowed / game 110.0 101.3
Average game total 231.9 216.4
Average 1st-half total 109.9 111.9
Possessions / 48 min 101.1 98.2
Games with 220+ pts 9/10 4/10
Games with 230+ pts 5/10 3/10
Games with 240+ pts 3/10 1/10
Scored 115+ pts 8/10 6/10

Schedule density & travel spot

Rest days, multi-game compression and current home/road stretch entering tip-off.

Golden State Warriors

2 days rest
1 in 4 nights 1 in 6 nights Homestand · Game 1

Boston Celtics

0 days (Back-to-back)
1 in 4 nights 1 in 6 nights Road trip · Game 5

Primary offensive threats

Available rotation leaders by scoring and shot share over the last 10 games.

Golden State Warriors

  • #1 Stephen Curry G 23.7% pts share
    28.9 PPG · 4.1 RPG · 4.2 APG · 4.8 3PM 18.8% FGA
  • #2 Yaxel Lendeborg F 18.9% pts share
    23.0 PPG · 7.3 RPG · 3.6 APG · 2.7 3PM 17.1% FGA
  • #3 Brandin Podziemski G 14.1% pts share
    17.2 PPG · 5.4 RPG · 4.3 APG · 3.0 3PM 14.4% FGA

Boston Celtics

  • #1 Jayson Tatum G-F 23.2% pts share
    26.7 PPG · 6.0 RPG · 7.1 APG · 2.6 3PM 20.9% FGA
  • #2 Paul George F 18.2% pts share
    20.9 PPG · 5.0 RPG · 4.1 APG · 3.4 3PM 18.4% FGA
  • #3 Derrick White G 10.8% pts share
    12.4 PPG · 3.0 RPG · 4.9 APG · 1.6 3PM 11.9% FGA

Last five games

Golden State Warriors

  • L 108-115 at Houston Rockets (A) 12 Nov
  • W 138-87 vs New Orleans Pelicans (H) 10 Nov
  • W 126-119 vs Orlando Magic (H) 8 Nov
  • W 120-100 vs Miami Heat (H) 6 Nov
  • W 116-113 vs Phoenix Suns (H) 3 Nov

Boston Celtics

  • W 98-93 at Toronto Raptors (A) 12 Nov
  • W 123-101 at Philadelphia 76ers (A) 11 Nov
  • W 117-97 at Milwaukee Bucks (A) 9 Nov
  • W 119-80 at Charlotte Hornets (A) 7 Nov
  • W 109-102 vs Milwaukee Bucks (H) 5 Nov

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Last 10 head-to-head meetings

GSW · 5W BOS · 5W
Avg total pts: 223.6 GSW avg: 108.0 BOS avg: 115.6 225+ pt games: 6/10 GSW at home: 3-2
  • 18 Mar 2026 BOS 120‑99 GSW
  • 19 Feb 2026 GSW 110‑121 BOS
  • 20 Jan 2025 GSW 85‑125 BOS
  • 6 Nov 2024 BOS 112‑118 GSW
  • 3 Mar 2024 BOS 140‑88 GSW
  • 19 Dec 2023 GSW 132‑126 (OT) BOS
  • 19 Jan 2023 BOS 121‑118 (OT) GSW
  • 10 Dec 2022 GSW 123‑107 BOS
  • 16 Jun 2022 BOS 90‑103 GSW
  • 13 Jun 2022 GSW 104‑94 BOS

Season profile comparison

GSWBOS
Record 8-4 10-2
At home 6-1 5-0
On the road 2-3 5-2
Conference 6 of 15, Western Conference 1 of 15, Eastern Conference
Streak – Won 5 in a row
Days of rest 2 0 (second night of a back-to-back)
Our team rating #10 of 30 #1 of 30
Pace #24 of 30 #29 of 30

Inter-conference matchup — both conference tables shown with Play-off (#6) and Play-in (#10) cut lines.

Western Conference standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT GB Home Road L10 Streak
1 Los Angeles Lakers 11 2 .846 – 5-1 6-1 8-2 W7
2 San Antonio Spurs 10 2 .833 0.5 4-2 6-0 10-0 W10
3 Houston Rockets 9 3 .750 1.5 6-1 3-2 7-3 W2
4 Minnesota Timberwolves 9 3 .750 1.5 5-1 4-2 7-3 W5
5 Portland Trail Blazers 8 3 .727 2.0 3-2 5-1 7-3 W2
6 Golden State Warriors 8 4 .667 2.5 6-1 2-3 8-2 L1
7 Oklahoma City Thunder 8 4 .667 2.5 5-0 3-4 6-4 L2
8 Memphis Grizzlies 7 4 .636 3.0 2-4 5-0 6-4 L1
9 Denver Nuggets 6 4 .600 3.5 3-2 3-2 6-4 W1
10 Dallas Mavericks 7 5 .583 3.5 5-2 2-3 6-4 L1
11 Phoenix Suns 5 6 .455 5.0 5-3 0-3 5-5 W2
12 New Orleans Pelicans 4 8 .333 6.5 3-4 1-4 4-6 L4
13 LA Clippers 2 8 .200 7.5 2-3 0-5 2-8 L1
14 Sacramento Kings 1 10 .091 9.0 0-6 1-4 1-9 L4
15 Utah Jazz 1 11 .083 9.5 1-6 0-5 0-10 L10

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

Eastern Conference standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT GB Home Road L10 Streak
1 Boston Celtics 10 2 .833 – 5-0 5-2 9-1 W5
2 Philadelphia 76ers 10 3 .769 0.5 5-2 5-1 7-3 W1
3 Detroit Pistons 8 3 .727 1.5 3-2 5-1 7-3 W2
4 Atlanta Hawks 7 5 .583 3.0 3-3 4-2 5-5 L1
5 New York Knicks 6 5 .545 3.5 4-3 2-2 6-4 L1
6 Cleveland Cavaliers 6 6 .500 4.0 4-2 2-4 5-5 W1
7 Miami Heat 5 6 .455 4.5 1-3 4-3 5-5 W2
8 Toronto Raptors 5 7 .417 5.0 2-3 3-4 3-7 L3
9 Orlando Magic 4 7 .364 5.5 0-4 4-3 4-6 W2
10 Charlotte Hornets 4 8 .333 6.0 3-4 1-4 3-7 L1
11 Indiana Pacers 4 8 .333 6.0 1-4 3-4 3-7 W1
12 Washington Wizards 4 9 .308 6.5 2-3 2-6 2-8 L6
13 Brooklyn Nets 3 8 .273 6.5 1-3 2-5 3-7 W1
14 Chicago Bulls 1 9 .100 8.0 0-4 1-5 1-9 L8
15 Milwaukee Bucks 1 11 .083 9.0 1-6 0-5 1-9 L8

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

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