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NBA · Regular season

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Atlanta Hawks: Preview and Stats

Oklahoma City Thunder 8-4
vs
Atlanta Hawks 7-5
Paycom Center, Oklahoma City

Our picks

Our picks for Oklahoma City Thunder vs Atlanta Hawks come out after the official NBA injury report, at most 48 hours before tip-off, and at the latest (3 hours before tip-off).

We are waiting for the result of a team's previous game.

Our NBA model track record for this matchup

Our winner picks on these teams

  • Oklahoma City Thunder 7 of 12 right (58%)
  • Atlanta Hawks 7 of 12 right (58%)

Settled NBA winner picks since 21 Oct 2026.

Game details

Stage
NBA, Regular season
Tip-off
Arena
Paycom Center
City
Oklahoma City
Since last match
Oklahoma City Thunder: Sacramento Kings Atlanta Hawks: Milwaukee Bucks
Next match
Oklahoma City Thunder: New Orleans Pelicans Atlanta Hawks: Charlotte Hornets

Missing production & availability impact

Share of last 10 games' offensive creation (PTS + AST) and minutes sidelined.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Atlanta Hawks

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Official NBA injury report

Oklahoma City Thunder

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Atlanta Hawks

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Expected 8-man core rotation

Projected starters and key bench from recent usage and the official injury report.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Starters
  • G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
    32.3 MPG 30.7 PPG 4.3 RPG 4.7 APG
  • G Jared McCain
    27.4 MPG 12.8 PPG 4.1 RPG 2.0 APG
  • G Ajay Mitchell
    28.2 MPG 20.8 PPG 3.9 RPG 3.3 APG
  • F-C Isaiah Hartenstein
    26.0 MPG 8.6 PPG 11.2 RPG 3.9 APG
  • C Aday Mara
    23.1 MPG 9.3 PPG 7.0 RPG 1.6 APG
Key Bench
  • G Bennett Stirtz
    22.0 MPG 9.5 PPG 1.4 RPG 1.4 APG
  • G-F Kenrich Williams
    21.5 MPG 7.6 PPG 3.9 RPG 1.3 APG
  • G Alex Caruso
    18.9 MPG 7.4 PPG 4.4 RPG 2.9 APG

Atlanta Hawks

Projected Starters
  • F Jalen Johnson
    35.1 MPG 19.1 PPG 8.0 RPG 7.3 APG
  • G Nickeil Alexander-Walker
    31.4 MPG 21.8 PPG 3.2 RPG 2.3 APG
  • G Dyson Daniels
    30.6 MPG 8.7 PPG 7.2 RPG 6.1 APG
  • F-C Onyeka Okongwu
    30.4 MPG 14.6 PPG 8.8 RPG 2.6 APG
  • G CJ McCollum
    26.0 MPG 13.1 PPG 3.1 RPG 4.3 APG
Key Bench
  • G Aaron Wiggins
    25.8 MPG 14.4 PPG 4.0 RPG 2.8 APG
  • G Luguentz Dort
    25.1 MPG 9.5 PPG 3.0 RPG 1.9 APG
  • G Kingston Flemings
    22.3 MPG 9.8 PPG 2.1 RPG 4.1 APG

OptimaGoal power & pace ratings

Full NBA power ratings

Neutral-court net point rating and 48-minute tempo rank across all 30 NBA franchises.

Oklahoma City Thunder

#14 of 30
Net rating -0.2 30d: -8.9
Pace: -1.5 (#16 of 30)

Atlanta Hawks

#13 of 30
Net rating +0.3 30d: -0.1
Pace: 1.7 (#3 of 30)

OptimaGoal tactical & efficiency profile (0–100)

Original 0–100 indices built from each team's last 10 played games before tip-off.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Net 57
Shot quality (TS%) 39
3PT volume & accuracy 37
Ball security & passing 46
Rebounding control 53
Defensive disruption 63

ORtg 110.3 · DRtg 107.7 · Net +2.6 · TS 56.2%

Atlanta Hawks

Net 42
Shot quality (TS%) 31
3PT volume & accuracy 52
Ball security & passing 48
Rebounding control 57
Defensive disruption 39

ORtg 110.2 · DRtg 113.0 · Net -2.8 · TS 55.0%

Oklahoma City Thunder · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 8W actual vs 7.6W expected (12 GP)
Atlanta Hawks · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 7W actual vs 6.7W expected (12 GP)

Halftime splits & clutch profile

Game-state outcomes and half-by-half scoring share over the last 15 games.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Win rate when leading at HT 7/7 (100%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 2/7 (29%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 57.3 (52.0%) 2H: 52.9 (48.0%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 1-0 10+ pt margins: 6-5

Atlanta Hawks

Win rate when leading at HT 6/7 (86%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 1/8 (12%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 57.1 (50.3%) 2H: 56.4 (49.7%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 3-0 10+ pt margins: 2-7

Scoring environment and threshold hit counts across the last 10 games.

OKCATL
Points scored / game 112.1 115.9
Points allowed / game 109.5 118.8
Average game total 221.6 234.7
Average 1st-half total 109.4 120.1
Possessions / 48 min 101.7 105.1
Games with 220+ pts 6/10 9/10
Games with 230+ pts 2/10 6/10
Games with 240+ pts 1/10 3/10
Scored 115+ pts 4/10 4/10

Schedule density & travel spot

Rest days, multi-game compression and current home/road stretch entering tip-off.

Oklahoma City Thunder

2 days rest
1 in 4 nights 1 in 6 nights Homestand · Game 1

Atlanta Hawks

2 days rest
1 in 4 nights 1 in 6 nights Road trip · Game 1

Primary offensive threats

Available rotation leaders by scoring and shot share over the last 10 games.

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • #1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander G 27.4% pts share
    30.7 PPG · 4.3 RPG · 4.7 APG · 2.1 3PM 25.5% FGA
  • #2 Ajay Mitchell G 18.6% pts share
    20.8 PPG · 3.9 RPG · 3.3 APG · 1.0 3PM 16.9% FGA
  • #3 Jared McCain G 11.4% pts share
    12.8 PPG · 4.1 RPG · 2.0 APG · 1.7 3PM 13.5% FGA

Atlanta Hawks

  • #1 Jalen Johnson F 16.5% pts share
    19.1 PPG · 8.0 RPG · 7.3 APG · 1.1 3PM 15.2% FGA
  • #2 Nickeil Alexander-Walker G 18.8% pts share
    21.8 PPG · 3.2 RPG · 2.3 APG · 4.0 3PM 18.2% FGA
  • #3 CJ McCollum G 11.3% pts share
    13.1 PPG · 3.1 RPG · 4.3 APG · 1.6 3PM 13.0% FGA

Last five games

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • L 108-118 at Portland Trail Blazers (A) 12 Nov
  • L 103-123 at Portland Trail Blazers (A) 11 Nov
  • W 114-75 vs Washington Wizards (H) 8 Nov
  • W 128-97 at Memphis Grizzlies (A) 7 Nov
  • W 124-116 vs Cleveland Cavaliers (H) 5 Nov

Atlanta Hawks

  • L 114-124 vs Los Angeles Lakers (H) 10 Nov
  • W 124-121 vs Brooklyn Nets (H) 8 Nov
  • W 139-132 vs Washington Wizards (H) 7 Nov
  • W 120-105 at Washington Wizards (A) 5 Nov
  • W 108-104 at Indiana Pacers (A) 3 Nov

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Last 10 head-to-head meetings

OKC · 6W ATL · 4W
Avg total pts: 246.6 OKC avg: 125.6 ATL avg: 121.0 225+ pt games: 8/10 OKC at home: 3-2
  • 29 Dec 2025 OKC 140‑129 ATL
  • 25 Oct 2025 ATL 100‑117 OKC
  • 28 Feb 2025 ATL 119‑135 OKC
  • 27 Oct 2024 OKC 128‑104 ATL
  • 3 Jan 2024 ATL 141‑138 OKC
  • 6 Nov 2023 OKC 126‑117 ATL
  • 25 Jan 2023 OKC 132‑137 ATL
  • 5 Dec 2022 ATL 114‑121 OKC
  • 30 Mar 2022 OKC 118‑136 ATL
  • 22 Nov 2021 ATL 113‑101 OKC

Season profile comparison

OKCATL
Record 8-4 7-5
At home 5-0 3-3
On the road 3-4 4-2
Conference 7 of 15, Western Conference 4 of 15, Eastern Conference
Streak Lost 2 in a row –
Days of rest 2 2
Our team rating #14 of 30 #13 of 30
Pace #16 of 30 #3 of 30

Inter-conference matchup — both conference tables shown with Play-off (#6) and Play-in (#10) cut lines.

Western Conference standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT GB Home Road L10 Streak
1 Los Angeles Lakers 11 2 .846 – 5-1 6-1 8-2 W7
2 San Antonio Spurs 10 2 .833 0.5 4-2 6-0 10-0 W10
3 Houston Rockets 9 3 .750 1.5 6-1 3-2 7-3 W2
4 Minnesota Timberwolves 9 3 .750 1.5 5-1 4-2 7-3 W5
5 Portland Trail Blazers 8 3 .727 2.0 3-2 5-1 7-3 W2
6 Golden State Warriors 8 4 .667 2.5 6-1 2-3 8-2 L1
7 Oklahoma City Thunder 8 4 .667 2.5 5-0 3-4 6-4 L2
8 Memphis Grizzlies 7 4 .636 3.0 2-4 5-0 6-4 L1
9 Denver Nuggets 6 4 .600 3.5 3-2 3-2 6-4 W1
10 Dallas Mavericks 7 5 .583 3.5 5-2 2-3 6-4 L1
11 Phoenix Suns 5 6 .455 5.0 5-3 0-3 5-5 W2
12 New Orleans Pelicans 4 8 .333 6.5 3-4 1-4 4-6 L4
13 LA Clippers 2 8 .200 7.5 2-3 0-5 2-8 L1
14 Sacramento Kings 1 10 .091 9.0 0-6 1-4 1-9 L4
15 Utah Jazz 1 11 .083 9.5 1-6 0-5 0-10 L10

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

Eastern Conference standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT GB Home Road L10 Streak
1 Boston Celtics 10 2 .833 – 5-0 5-2 9-1 W5
2 Philadelphia 76ers 10 3 .769 0.5 5-2 5-1 7-3 W1
3 Detroit Pistons 8 3 .727 1.5 3-2 5-1 7-3 W2
4 Atlanta Hawks 7 5 .583 3.0 3-3 4-2 5-5 L1
5 New York Knicks 6 5 .545 3.5 4-3 2-2 6-4 L1
6 Cleveland Cavaliers 6 6 .500 4.0 4-2 2-4 5-5 W1
7 Miami Heat 5 6 .455 4.5 1-3 4-3 5-5 W2
8 Toronto Raptors 5 7 .417 5.0 2-3 3-4 3-7 L3
9 Orlando Magic 4 7 .364 5.5 0-4 4-3 4-6 W2
10 Charlotte Hornets 4 8 .333 6.0 3-4 1-4 3-7 L1
11 Indiana Pacers 4 8 .333 6.0 1-4 3-4 3-7 W1
12 Washington Wizards 4 9 .308 6.5 2-3 2-6 2-8 L6
13 Brooklyn Nets 3 8 .273 6.5 1-3 2-5 3-7 W1
14 Chicago Bulls 1 9 .100 8.0 0-4 1-5 1-9 L8
15 Milwaukee Bucks 1 11 .083 9.0 1-6 0-5 1-9 L8

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

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