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Championship · Matchday 17

Burnley vs Birmingham City: Match Preview & Stats

Burnley crest Burnley
vs
Birmingham City crest Birmingham City
Turf Moor, Burnley

Our picks

Model predictions are published 48 hours before kick-off

To take in the latest form and rest days, the predictions for this match come out on . (If either team plays another match in between, they come out once that match is over.)

See today's ready predictions →

Our record

  • Burnley: 4 of 7 right
  • Birmingham City: 6 of 7 right

Our result picks in each club's earlier matches on this site.

Match facts

Competition
Championship, Matchday 17
Kick-off
Venue
Turf Moor, Burnley
Since last match
Burnley: 3 days (Championship) · Blackburn Rovers Birmingham City: 4 days (Championship) · Stoke City
Next match
Burnley: 2 days (Championship) later Birmingham City: 2 days (Championship) later

Last starting XI

Burnley 4-2-3-1

  1. 37 Coudert
  2. 2 Walker
  3. 18 Ekdal
  4. 44 Julio
  5. 23 Pires
  6. 29 Laurent
  7. 5 Hatate
  8. 19 Ramazani
  9. 23 Edwards
  10. 34 Banel
  11. 17 Hountondji

Coach: Fabio Celestini at Cardiff City, 4-5 · Championship · 7 Nov

Birmingham City 4-2-3-1

  1. 21 Allsop
  2. 2 Laird
  3. 5 Neumann
  4. 4 Klarer
  5. 20 Cochrane
  6. 24 Iwata
  7. 14 Solís
  8. 16 Roberts
  9. 18 Bird
  10. 17 Millar
  11. 28 Stansfield

Coach: Chris Davies vs Swansea City, 2-1 · Championship · 7 Nov

Our predicted line-ups come with our picks, 48 hours before kick-off. Until then: each club's last starting XI.

Injuries and suspensions

Burnley

  • DF Bashir HumphreysInjured · Back in training
  • MF Hannibal MejbriInjured · Early January 2027
  • FW Armando BrojaInjured · Doubtful
  • FW Ashley BarnesInjured · Back in training
  • FW Dastan SatpaevInjured · Late November 2026
  • – Jordan BeyerInjured · Doubtful

Birmingham City

  • GK James BeadleInjured · Late November 2026
  • FW August PriskeInjured · Doubtful

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Burnley

Low impact
Missing attack share 3.0%
Missing minutes share 2.0%
6 players out

Birmingham City

Moderate impact
Missing attack share 11.0%
Missing minutes share 11.0%
2 players out 2 regular starters out
Key absences:
  • FW August Priske 11% attack · 4% mins
  • GK James Beadle 0% attack · 6% mins

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 10 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Burnley Birmingham City
Box & Territory Pressure 43 61
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 53 73
Finishing Efficiency 61 60
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 18 68
Underlying Play Power 34 71
Burnley Balanced (results match underlying play)
Birmingham City Results above play quality (running hot)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 10 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Burnley

When scoring first 10% won · 50% unbeaten (10 matches)
When conceding first 33% points rescued · 0% won (3 matches)
1st Half: 65% 2nd Half: 35%
First 15': 15% Last 15' (76-90'): 5%

Birmingham City

When scoring first 100% won · 100% unbeaten (7 matches)
When conceding first 71% points rescued · 14% won (7 matches)
1st Half: 54% 2nd Half: 46%
First 15': 7% Last 15' (76-90'): 14%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Burnley

  1. 1. FW Largie Ramazani 4G · 1A
    Team attack 18.0% Team shots 20.0%
  2. 2. FW Zeki Amdouni 3G · 0A
    Team attack 10.0% Team shots 12.0%
  3. 3. MF Marcus Edwards 2G · 0A
    Team attack 10.0% Team shots 10.0%

Birmingham City

  1. 1. FW Liam Millar 4G · 3A
    Team attack 15.0% Team shots 11.0%
  2. 2. FW Jay Stansfield 3G · 1A
    Team attack 14.0% Team shots 19.0%
  3. 3. DF Alexander Cochrane 2G · 1A
    Team attack 7.0% Team shots 4.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Burnley Birmingham City
Over 1.5 goals 9/10 8/10
Over 2.5 goals 6/10 8/10
Over 3.5 goals 5/10 3/10
Both teams scored 8/10 5/10
Clean sheet 2/10 4/10
Failed to score 1/10 1/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 1.6 / 1.9 2.1 / 0.8

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Burnley

  • L 4-5 at Cardiff City (A) Championship · 7 Nov
  • D 1-1 at Queens Park Rangers (A) Championship · 3 Nov
  • D 0-0 vs Portsmouth (H) Championship · 31 Oct
  • L 1-4 at Lincoln City (A) Championship · 24 Oct
  • L 1-2 vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (H) Championship · 16 Oct

Birmingham City

  • W 2-1 vs Swansea City (H) Championship · 7 Nov
  • W 3-0 vs Millwall (H) Championship · 3 Nov
  • W 3-1 at Lincoln City (A) Championship · 31 Oct
  • L 0-1 at Cardiff City (A) Championship · 24 Oct
  • W 3-0 vs Queens Park Rangers (H) Championship · 17 Oct

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Burnley

Birmingham City

Goals in each 15-minute period, Championship this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Burnley

Player G A
Largie Ramazani 4 1
Zeki Amdouni 3 1
Jacob Bruun Larsen 2 2
Andréas Hountondji 2 0
Marcus Edwards 2 0

Birmingham City

Player G A
August Priske (1 pen) 6 1
Liam Millar 4 3
Jay Stansfield 4 1
Demarai Gray (1 pen) 3 0
Alexander Cochrane 2 2

Goals and assists in the Championship this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Burnley Birmingham City
  • 4.6 Corners won 5.5
  • 4.7 Corners conceded 4.2
  • 1.9 Yellow cards 2.1
  • 1.7 Opponents' yellow cards 1.7

Per match in the Championship this season. Average per club and match: 5.2 corners, 1.9 yellow cards.

Attack and defence ratings

BurnleyBirmingham City
Attack 78 65 1.5 goals per match this season1.9 goals per match this season
Defence 74 91 2.1 conceded per match this season0.9 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Championship clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1704Elo #231 Elo rating 1757Elo #162

Head-to-head

3Burnley wins
4draws
3Birmingham City wins

10 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 27 Dec 2022 · Championship Burnley 3-0 Birmingham City
  • 19 Oct 2022 · Championship Birmingham City 1-1 Burnley
  • 16 Apr 2016 · Championship Birmingham City 1-2 Burnley
  • 15 Aug 2015 · Championship Burnley 2-2 Birmingham City
  • 12 Mar 2014 · Championship Birmingham City 3-3 Burnley

Table

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Birmingham City 15 852 28:14 +14 29
2 Middlesbrough 15 852 30:19 +11 29
3 Stoke City 15 924 24:18 +6 29
4 Southampton 15 843 29:15 +14 28
5 Wolverhampton Wanderers 15 843 26:18 +8 28
6 West Bromwich Albion 15 843 23:15 +8 28
7 Swansea City 15 825 22:18 +4 26
8 Queens Park Rangers 15 663 24:18 +6 24
9 West Ham United 15 654 37:23 +14 23
10 Sheffield United 15 645 21:19 +2 22
11 Portsmouth 15 645 20:18 +2 22
12 Norwich City 15 708 32:24 +8 21
13 Blackburn Rovers 15 636 22:23 -1 21
14 Cardiff City 15 465 27:27 0 18
15 Wrexham 15 465 18:20 -2 18
16 Millwall 15 537 23:27 -4 18
17 Bristol City 15 537 16:24 -8 18
18 Bolton Wanderers 15 528 20:29 -9 17
19 Charlton Athletic 15 456 13:23 -10 17
20 Watford 15 438 13:23 -10 15
21 Lincoln City 15 438 15:26 -11 15
22 Burnley 15 177 22:31 -9 10
23 Derby County 15 249 14:30 -16 10
24 Preston North End 15 2211 13:30 -17 8

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

Season projection

Members

Where these two clubs are projected to finish in the Championship: average points, likely range and chances.

ClubPts Avg ptsLikely TitlePromotedPlay-offsRelegated
Burnley 10
Birmingham City 29

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Times are UTC.