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UEFA Nations League · League D, Matchday 5

Andorra vs Gibraltar Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Andorra crest Andorra
vs
Gibraltar crest Gibraltar
Estadi de la FAF d'Encamp, Encamp

Our picks

  • Result Andorra win
    Model probability 62% 24% 14%
  • Double chance Andorra or draw (1X)
    Model probability 86% 76% 38%
  • Both teams to score No
    Model probability
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Under 2.5
    Model probability
  • More corners Andorra
    Model probability
  • Yellow cards Around the league average(league 4.8)
    Model probability Over 3.5 Over 4.5 Over 5.5
  • Corners Above the league average(league 7.0)
    Model probability Over 8.5 Over 9.5 Over 10.5

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 1‑0
  2. #2 2‑0
  3. #3 0‑0

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Strong support
  • Gibraltar: Recent shot, box and corner dominance Moderate support
  • Gibraltar: Recent goalscoring rate Moderate support

See exactly how confident our model is

Both teams to score, over/under 2.5 goals, cards and corners: these probabilities are for members until the match is over.

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Why this pick?

Andorra are our pick to take all three points, mainly because our model rates them the stronger of the two sides and they play at home in Encamp. The caution is obvious: Andorra have not won any of their last five matches, and September's meeting between the pair finished goalless. What tilts it back is Gibraltar's attacking output — few shots, a big-chance count well below the league norm and little time in the opposition box — while Andorra carve out big chances at a rate above the norm. With nothing significant pointing the other way, the call is clear.

Both teams to score: Our goal model does not see both teams scoring. Gibraltar create clearly fewer big chances than the league average and spend little time in the opposition box, which leaves little room for an away goal.

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League D, Matchday 5
Kick-off
Venue
Estadi de la FAF d'Encamp, Encamp
Referee
Robert Hennessy
Since last match
Andorra: 40 days (UEFA Nations League) Gibraltar: 39 days (Friendlies)
Next match
Andorra: 2 days (Friendlies) later Gibraltar: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Malta

Predicted line-ups

Andorra 4-4-2

  1. 12 Álvarez
  2. 2 Borrà
  3. 5 Llovera
  4. 22 Olivera
  5. 15 Nicolás
  6. 7 Martínez
  7. 23 Remolins
  8. 3 Babot
  9. 17 Rodrigo
  10. 11 Rosas
  11. 10 López

Coach: Koldo Last match: at Malta, 0-1 · UEFA Nations League D · 4 Oct

Gibraltar 4-2-3-1

  1. 23 Hankins
  2. 2 Jolley
  3. 5 Bent
  4. 6 Lopes
  5. 3 Valarino
  6. 8 Ronan
  7. 9 Borge
  8. 7 Richards
  9. 4 Pozo
  10. 11 Scanlon
  11. 10 De Barr

Coach: Scott Wiseman Last match: at Malta, 1-1 · UEFA Nations League D · 1 Oct

Our model's guess: the XIs of each club's recent matches, those of the same competition counting most, without the injured and suspended. On past matches it named 8.4 of the 11 starters on average. The official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Andorra

No absences reported.

Gibraltar

  • MF Graeme TorrillaSuspended · Mid November 2026

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Andorra

Low impact

Full squad available — no listed absences

Gibraltar

Moderate impact
Missing attack share 4.0%
Missing minutes share 7.0%
1 player out 1 regular starter out
Key absences:
  • MF Graeme Torrilla 4% attack · 7% mins

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 6 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Andorra Gibraltar
Box & Territory Pressure 27 17
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 26 26
Finishing Efficiency 35 31
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 70 31
Underlying Play Power 23 15
Andorra Balanced (results match underlying play)
Gibraltar Results above play quality (running hot)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 6 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Andorra

When scoring first 0% won · 33% unbeaten (3 matches)
When conceding first 0% points rescued · 0% won (9 matches)
1st Half: 75% 2nd Half: 25%
First 15': 0% Last 15' (76-90'): 25%

Gibraltar

When scoring first 0% won · 25% unbeaten (4 matches)
When conceding first 12% points rescued · 0% won (8 matches)
1st Half: 80% 2nd Half: 20%
First 15': 40% Last 15' (76-90'): 0%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Andorra

  1. 1. FW Guillaume López 1G · 0A
    Team attack 19.0% Team shots 16.0%
  2. 2. MF Arón Rodrigo 0G · 0A
    Team attack 17.0% Team shots 24.0%
  3. 3. FW Albert Rosas 0G · 0A
    Team attack 9.0% Team shots 11.0%

Gibraltar

  1. 1. FW James Scanlon 1G · 1A
    Team attack 25.0% Team shots 19.0%
  2. 2. FW Liam Jessop 1G · 0A
    Team attack 10.0% Team shots 4.0%
  3. 3. FW Tjay De Barr 0G · 0A
    Team attack 10.0% Team shots 15.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Andorra Gibraltar
Over 1.5 goals 5/10 6/10
Over 2.5 goals 3/10 4/10
Over 3.5 goals 0/10 3/10
Both teams scored 1/10 3/10
Clean sheet 3/10 4/10
Failed to score 8/10 5/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 0.3 / 1.3 1.2 / 1.2

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Andorra

  • L 0-1 at Malta (A) UEFA Nations League · 4 Oct
  • L 0-3 at Lithuania (A) Friendlies · 30 Sep
  • D 0-0 at Gibraltar (A) UEFA Nations League · 27 Sep
  • L 1-2 vs Malta (H) UEFA Nations League · 24 Sep
  • L 0-3 at Kosovo (A) Friendlies · 7 Jun

Gibraltar

  • W 2-0 at Liechtenstein (A) Friendlies · 5 Oct
  • D 1-1 at Malta (A) UEFA Nations League · 1 Oct
  • D 0-0 vs Andorra (H) UEFA Nations League · 27 Sep
  • D 0-0 vs Sao Tome and Principe (H) Friendlies · 23 Sep
  • W 4-1 vs Cayman Islands (H) Friendlies · 6 Jun

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Andorra

Gibraltar

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Andorra

Player G A
Guillaume López 1 0

Gibraltar

Player G A
James Scanlon 1 0

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Andorra Gibraltar
  • 4.0 Corners won 2.5
  • 4.0 Corners conceded 6.0
  • 3.7 Yellow cards 1.5
  • 2.0 Opponents' yellow cards 3.0

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 3.5 corners, 2.4 yellow cards.

Referee: Robert Hennessy, 2 earlier matches in our data.

Attack and defence ratings

AndorraGibraltar
Attack 4 6
Defence 8 4

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1259Elo #163 Elo rating 1199Elo #173

Head-to-head

0Andorra wins
1draw
0Gibraltar wins

1 meeting since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 27 Sep 2026 · UEFA Nations League Gibraltar 0-0 Andorra

Table

League D - Group 1

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Malta 3 210 4:2 +2 7
2 Gibraltar 2 020 1:1 0 2
3 Andorra 3 012 1:3 -2 1

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

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Times are UTC.