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UEFA Nations League · League A, Matchday 5

Serbia vs Germany Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Serbia crest Serbia
vs
Germany crest Germany
Stadion Rajko Mitić, Beograd

Our picks

  • Result Germany win
    Model probability 12% 17% 72%
  • Double chance Germany or draw (X2)
    Model probability 28% 83% 88%
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Under 2.5
    Model probability
  • More corners Germany
    Model probability
  • Yellow cards Around the league average(league 3.8)
    Model probability Over 3.5 Over 4.5 Over 5.5
  • Corners Above the league average(league 8.9)
    Model probability Over 8.5 Over 9.5 Over 10.5

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 0‑2
  2. #2 0‑1
  3. #3 0‑3

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Strong support
  • Recent goal difference balance Strong support

See exactly how confident our model is

Both teams to score, over/under 2.5 goals, cards and corners: these probabilities are for members until the match is over.

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Why this pick?

Our model makes Germany the clear pick, mainly because its strength ratings place them well above Serbia at both ends. The point on the other side is Serbia's home advantage, with the hosts backed by their own crowd. It does not overturn the call. Over their last five matches Serbia have conceded far more shots and big chances than the league average while creating little, and Germany's command of possession and territory should keep play in Serbia's half. The most recent meeting, a 2‑0 Germany win in October, fits that picture, and the call is clear.

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League A, Matchday 5
Kick-off
Venue
Stadion Rajko Mitić, Beograd
Referee
Javier Alberola Rojas
Since last match
Serbia: 40 days (UEFA Nations League) Germany: 40 days (UEFA Nations League)
Next match
Serbia: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Greece Germany: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Netherlands

Predicted line-ups

Serbia 5-3-2

  1. 23 Milinković-Savić
  2. 19 Gudelj
  3. 15 Babić
  4. 3 Pavlović
  5. 2 Nedeljković
  6. 11 Kostić
  7. 21 Samardžić
  8. 22 Lukić
  9. 14 Živković
  10. 18 Cvetković
  11. 10 Tadić

Coach: Veljko Paunović Last match: at Netherlands, 1-2 · UEFA Nations League · 4 Oct

Germany 4-4-2

  1. 1 Urbig
  2. 13 Treu
  3. 2 Thiaw
  4. 3 Anton
  5. 22 Raum
  6. 15 Karl
  7. 5 Pavlović
  8. 8 Bischof
  9. 9 Scherhant
  10. 17 Wirtz
  11. 10 Burkardt

Coach: Jürgen Klopp Last match: at Greece, 0-0 · UEFA Nations League · 4 Oct

Our model's guess: the XIs of each club's recent matches, those of the same competition counting most, without the injured and suspended. On past matches it named 8.4 of the 11 starters on average. The official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Serbia

  • MF Nemanja MaksimovićSuspended · Mid November 2026
  • DF Aleksa TerzićInjured · Late November 2026
  • MF Aleksandar StankovićInjured · Mid December 2026

Germany

No absences reported.

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Serbia

Moderate impact
Missing attack share 11.0%
Missing minutes share 12.0%
3 players out 1 regular starter out
Key absences:
  • DF Aleksa Terzić 5% attack · 4% mins
  • MF Aleksandar Stanković 5% attack · 4% mins

Germany

Low impact

Full squad available — no listed absences

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 8 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Serbia Germany
Box & Territory Pressure 36 76
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 32 51
Finishing Efficiency 22 36
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 52 78
Underlying Play Power 18 79
Serbia Results above play quality (running hot)
Germany Balanced (results match underlying play)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 8 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Serbia

When scoring first 75% won · 75% unbeaten (4 matches)
When conceding first 33% points rescued · 22% won (9 matches)
1st Half: 40% 2nd Half: 60%
First 15': 20% Last 15' (76-90'): 13%

Germany

When scoring first 78% won · 89% unbeaten (9 matches)
When conceding first 40% points rescued · 20% won (5 matches)
1st Half: 47% 2nd Half: 53%
First 15': 13% Last 15' (76-90'): 13%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Serbia

  1. 1. FW Andrija Živković 1G · 2A
    Team attack 16.0% Team shots 8.0%
  2. 2. FW Luka Jović 1G · 0A
    Team attack 13.0% Team shots 16.0%
  3. 3. MF Filip Kostić 0G · 0A
    Team attack 8.0% Team shots 8.0%

Germany

  1. 1. MF Florian Wirtz 1G · 3A
    Team attack 14.0% Team shots 12.0%
  2. 2. FW Deniz Undav 3G · 2A
    Team attack 8.0% Team shots 4.0%
  3. 3. FW Kai Havertz 3G · 0A
    Team attack 8.0% Team shots 8.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Serbia Germany
Over 1.5 goals 10/10 8/10
Over 2.5 goals 8/10 5/10
Over 3.5 goals 1/10 2/10
Both teams scored 6/10 6/10
Clean sheet 0/10 3/10
Failed to score 4/10 2/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 0.8 / 2.3 2.0 / 0.8

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Serbia

  • L 1-2 at Netherlands (A) UEFA Nations League · 4 Oct
  • L 0-2 at Germany (A) UEFA Nations League · 1 Oct
  • L 1-2 vs Netherlands (H) UEFA Nations League · 27 Sep
  • L 1-2 vs Greece (H) UEFA Nations League · 24 Sep
  • L 1-5 at Mexico (A) Friendlies · 5 Jun

Germany

  • D 0-0 at Greece (A) UEFA Nations League · 4 Oct
  • W 2-0 vs Serbia (H) UEFA Nations League · 1 Oct
  • L 0-1 vs Greece (H) UEFA Nations League · 27 Sep
  • D 1-1 at Netherlands (A) UEFA Nations League · 24 Sep
  • D 1-1 vs Paraguay (N) World Cup · 29 Jun

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Serbia

Germany

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Serbia

Player G A
Andrija Živković 1 0
Luka Jović 1 0
Mihajlo Cvetković 1 0

Germany

Player G A
Felix Nmecha 1 0
Florian Wirtz 1 0
Tom Bischof 1 0

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Serbia Germany
  • 2.5 Corners won 6.0
  • 7.0 Corners conceded 4.2
  • 2.5 Yellow cards 1.2
  • 0.8 Opponents' yellow cards 3.0

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 4.5 corners, 1.8 yellow cards.

Referee: Javier Alberola Rojas, 1 earlier match in our data.

Attack and defence ratings

SerbiaGermany
Attack 45 94
Defence 53 92

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1904Elo #24 Elo rating 2127Elo #6

Head-to-head

1Serbia wins
0draws
1Germany wins

2 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 1 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League Germany 2-0 Serbia
  • 18 Jun 2010 · World Cup Germany 0-1 Serbia

Table

League A - Group 2

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Netherlands 4 220 7:5 +2 8
2 Greece 4 220 5:3 +2 8
3 Germany 4 121 3:2 +1 5
4 Serbia 4 004 3:8 -5 0

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

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Times are UTC.