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UEFA Nations League · League A, Matchday 5

Netherlands vs Greece Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Netherlands crest Netherlands
vs
Greece crest Greece
Johan Cruijff ArenA, Amsterdam

Our picks

  • Result Netherlands win
    Model probability 69% 20% 11%
  • Double chance Netherlands or draw (1X)
    Model probability 89% 80% 31%
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.5
    Model probability
  • More corners Netherlands
    Model probability
  • Yellow cards Around the league average(league 3.8)
    Model probability Over 3.5 Over 4.5 Over 5.5
  • Corners Above the league average(league 8.9)
    Model probability Over 8.5 Over 9.5 Over 10.5

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 2‑0
  2. #2 2‑1
  3. #3 1‑1

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Strong support
  • Recent goal difference balance Moderate support

See exactly how confident our model is

Both teams to score, over/under 2.5 goals, cards and corners: these probabilities are for members until the match is over.

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Why this pick?

Our model leans on the Netherlands because our strength rating puts them clearly above Greece, and they play at home. The point against: the hosts have conceded more big chances than the league average over their last five, and Greece defend their box well. What makes up for it is the gap in creation — Greece produce clearly fewer clear-cut openings than the competition norm and rarely reach the opposition box, so the game should be played largely in their half. Greece did draw 2‑2 with them last month, but the overall picture points one way and the call is clear.

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League A, Matchday 5
Kick-off
Venue
Johan Cruijff ArenA, Amsterdam
Referee
Rohit Saggi (4.1 yellow cards per match over the last 7 matches)
Since last match
Netherlands: 40 days (UEFA Nations League) Greece: 40 days (UEFA Nations League)
Next match
Netherlands: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Germany Greece: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Serbia

Predicted line-ups

Netherlands 4-3-3

  1. 1 Verbruggen
  2. 22 Dumfries
  3. 12 Timber
  4. 15 van de Ven
  5. 20 Koopmeiners
  6. 8 Gravenberch
  7. 18 Veerman
  8. 14 Reijnders
  9. 7 Summerville
  10. 17 Meerdink
  11. 10 Lang

Coach: Xavi Hernández Last match: vs Serbia, 2-1 · UEFA Nations League · 4 Oct

Greece 4-4-2

  1. 12 Tzolakis
  2. 2 Vagiannidis
  3. 4 Mavropanos
  4. 3 Koulierakis
  5. 21 Tsimikas
  6. 7 Masouras
  7. 6 Kourbelis
  8. 15 Androutsos
  9. 23 Kyziridis
  10. 14 Pavlidis
  11. 8 Ioannidis

Coach: Ivan Jovanović Last match: vs Germany, 0-0 · UEFA Nations League · 4 Oct

Our model's guess: the XIs of each club's recent matches, those of the same competition counting most, without the injured and suspended. On past matches it named 8.4 of the 11 starters on average. The official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Netherlands

  • DF Nathan AkéInjured · Late November 2026
  • DF Virgil van DijkInjured · Doubtful
  • FW Brian BrobbeyInjured · Late November 2026

Greece

  • MF Christos ZafeirisSuspended · Mid November 2026
  • MF Manolis SaliakasSuspended · Mid November 2026
  • DF Giannis MichailidisInjured · Doubtful
  • MF Dimitrios PelkasInjured · About a week

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Netherlands

Moderate impact
Missing attack share 13.0%
Missing minutes share 13.0%
3 players out 2 regular starters out
Key absences:
  • DF Virgil van Dijk 6% attack · 8% mins
  • FW Brian Brobbey 7% attack · 3% mins

Greece

Moderate impact
Missing attack share 4.0%
Missing minutes share 10.0%
4 players out 1 regular starter out
Key absences:
  • MF Christos Zafeiris 2% attack · 5% mins

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 8 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Netherlands Greece
Box & Territory Pressure 72 47
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 60 45
Finishing Efficiency 88 67
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 81 78
Underlying Play Power 74 46
Netherlands Balanced (results match underlying play)
Greece Results above play quality (running hot)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 8 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Netherlands

When scoring first 75% won · 100% unbeaten (12 matches)
When conceding first 100% points rescued · 0% won (3 matches)
1st Half: 40% 2nd Half: 60%
First 15': 16% Last 15' (76-90'): 19%

Greece

When scoring first 71% won · 86% unbeaten (7 matches)
When conceding first 20% points rescued · 20% won (5 matches)
1st Half: 45% 2nd Half: 55%
First 15': 10% Last 15' (76-90'): 5%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Netherlands

  1. 1. FW Cody Gakpo 4G · 1A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 10.0%
  2. 2. MF Tijjani Reijnders 1G · 2A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 13.0%
  3. 3. FW Crysencio Summerville 2G · 2A
    Team attack 9.0% Team shots 7.0%

Greece

  1. 1. FW Christos Tzolis 2G · 0A
    Team attack 18.0% Team shots 24.0%
  2. 2. MF Konstantinos Karetsas 1G · 0A
    Team attack 9.0% Team shots 12.0%
  3. 3. FW Vangelis Pavlidis 0G · 1A
    Team attack 9.0% Team shots 9.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Netherlands Greece
Over 1.5 goals 9/10 4/10
Over 2.5 goals 7/10 4/10
Over 3.5 goals 4/10 3/10
Both teams scored 9/10 4/10
Clean sheet 0/10 4/10
Failed to score 1/10 5/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 2.0 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.9

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Netherlands

  • W 2-1 vs Serbia (H) UEFA Nations League · 4 Oct
  • D 2-2 at Greece (A) UEFA Nations League · 1 Oct
  • W 2-1 at Serbia (A) UEFA Nations League · 27 Sep
  • D 1-1 vs Germany (H) UEFA Nations League · 24 Sep
  • D 1-1 vs Morocco (N) World Cup · 30 Jun

Greece

  • D 0-0 vs Germany (H) UEFA Nations League · 4 Oct
  • D 2-2 vs Netherlands (H) UEFA Nations League · 1 Oct
  • W 1-0 at Germany (A) UEFA Nations League · 27 Sep
  • W 2-1 at Serbia (A) UEFA Nations League · 24 Sep
  • L 0-1 vs Italy (H) Friendlies · 7 Jun

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Netherlands

Greece

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Netherlands

Player G A
Mexx Meerdink (1 pen) 2 0
Tijjani Reijnders 1 1
Cody Gakpo 1 0
Joshua Zirkzee 1 0
Teun Koopmeiners 1 0

Greece

Player G A
Fotis Ioannidis 1 1
Giorgos Masouras 1 1
Anastasios Douvikas 1 0
Christos Tzolis 1 0
Dimitrios Kourbelis 1 0

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Netherlands Greece
  • 7.5 Corners won 4.0
  • 3.5 Corners conceded 5.2
  • 1.2 Yellow cards 2.5
  • 2.2 Opponents' yellow cards 1.5

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 4.5 corners, 1.8 yellow cards.

Referee: Rohit Saggi, 4.1 yellow cards per match over the last 7 matches.

Attack and defence ratings

NetherlandsGreece
Attack 89 72
Defence 89 81

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

2142Elo #5 Elo rating 1959Elo #16

Head-to-head

2Netherlands wins
1draw
0Greece wins

3 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 1 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League Greece 2-2 Netherlands
  • 16 Oct 2023 · EURO Qualification Greece 0-1 Netherlands
  • 7 Sep 2023 · EURO Qualification Netherlands 3-0 Greece

Table

League A - Group 2

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Netherlands 4 220 7:5 +2 8
2 Greece 4 220 5:3 +2 8
3 Germany 4 121 3:2 +1 5
4 Serbia 4 004 3:8 -5 0

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

More UEFA Nations League matches

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Times are UTC.