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UEFA Nations League · League B, Matchday 5

Slovenia vs Switzerland Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Slovenia crest Slovenia
vs
Switzerland crest Switzerland
Ljudski vrt, Maribor

Our picks

  • Result Switzerland win
    Model probability 17% 24% 59%
  • Double chance Switzerland or draw (X2)
    Model probability 41% 76% 83%
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Under 2.5
    Model probability
  • More corners Switzerland
    Model probability
  • Yellow cards Below the league average(league 4.0)
    Model probability Over 3.5 Over 4.5 Over 5.5
  • Corners Above the league average(league 7.3)
    Model probability Over 8.5 Over 9.5 Over 10.5

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 0‑1
  2. #2 0‑2
  3. #3 1‑1

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Strong support
  • Recent form gap between the two clubs Moderate support
  • Recent goal difference balance Moderate support

See exactly how confident our model is

Both teams to score, over/under 2.5 goals, cards and corners: these probabilities are for members until the match is over.

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Why this pick?

Our model goes with a Switzerland win, chiefly because our strength rating has them clearly the better of the two sides. The argument against is the setting: Slovenia are at home in Maribor, and that counts for something. It is not enough to tilt the picture, though. The form gap also leans towards the visitors, and over their last five matches Switzerland sit clearly above the league average for shots and touches in the opposition box while conceding fewer shots and big chances than the average side. That leaves a moderate call rather than an open-and-shut one.

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League B, Matchday 5
Kick-off
Venue
Ljudski vrt, Maribor
Referee
Jasper Vergoote
Since last match
Slovenia: 38 days (UEFA Nations League) Switzerland: 38 days (UEFA Nations League)
Next match
Slovenia: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) later · North Macedonia Switzerland: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Scotland

Predicted line-ups

Slovenia 5-4-1

  1. 1 Oblak
  2. 23 Brekalo
  3. 6 Bijol
  4. 21 Drkušić
  5. 2 Karničnik
  6. 8 Lovrić
  7. 20 Matko
  8. 4 Zabukovnik
  9. 22 Čerin
  10. 15 Šturm
  11. 18 Vipotnik

Coach: Boštjan Cesar Last match: at Scotland, 2-1 · UEFA Nations League B · 6 Oct

Switzerland 4-2-3-1

  1. 12 Mvogo
  2. 2 Britschgi
  3. 4 Elvedi
  4. 5 Akanji
  5. 13 Rodríguez
  6. 8 Freuler
  7. 6 Sierro
  8. 15 Sow
  9. 22 Rieder
  10. 11 Ndoye
  11. 10 Amdouni

Coach: Murat Yakin Last match: vs North Macedonia, 3-0 · UEFA Nations League B · 6 Oct

Our model's guess: the XIs of each club's recent matches, those of the same competition counting most, without the injured and suspended. On past matches it named 8.4 of the 11 starters on average. The official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Slovenia

  • DF David ZecSuspended · Mid November 2026
  • DF Erik JanžaSuspended · Mid November 2026

Switzerland

  • FW Joël MonteiroInjured · Late November 2026
  • FW Winsley BoteliInjured · Doubtful

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Slovenia

Moderate impact
Missing attack share 6.0%
Missing minutes share 11.0%
2 players out 1 regular starter out
Key absences:
  • DF Erik Janža 5% attack · 7% mins

Switzerland

Low impact
Missing attack share 1.0%
Missing minutes share 1.0%
2 players out

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 10 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Slovenia Switzerland
Box & Territory Pressure 38 59
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 28 40
Finishing Efficiency 25 84
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 60 88
Underlying Play Power 43 76
Slovenia Balanced (results match underlying play)
Switzerland Results above play quality (running hot)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 10 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Slovenia

When scoring first 50% won · 75% unbeaten (4 matches)
When conceding first 50% points rescued · 17% won (6 matches)
1st Half: 18% 2nd Half: 82%
First 15': 9% Last 15' (76-90'): 27%

Switzerland

When scoring first 80% won · 100% unbeaten (10 matches)
When conceding first 100% points rescued · 50% won (2 matches)
1st Half: 32% 2nd Half: 68%
First 15': 14% Last 15' (76-90'): 25%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Slovenia

  1. 1. FW Danijel Šturm 1G · 2A
    Team attack 21.0% Team shots 19.0%
  2. 2. MF Aljoša Matko 2G · 2A
    Team attack 14.0% Team shots 10.0%
  3. 3. FW Žan Vipotnik 1G · 0A
    Team attack 13.0% Team shots 16.0%

Switzerland

  1. 1. FW Dan Ndoye 4G · 3A
    Team attack 18.0% Team shots 22.0%
  2. 2. MF Johan Manzambi 4G · 2A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 10.0%
  3. 3. FW Breel Embolo 2G · 2A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 7.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Slovenia Switzerland
Over 1.5 goals 8/10 9/10
Over 2.5 goals 4/10 6/10
Over 3.5 goals 1/10 1/10
Both teams scored 6/10 5/10
Clean sheet 2/10 5/10
Failed to score 3/10 1/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 1.1 / 1.2 2.1 / 0.5

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Slovenia

  • W 2-1 at Scotland (A) UEFA Nations League · 6 Oct
  • L 1-2 at Switzerland (A) UEFA Nations League · 3 Oct
  • W 2-0 vs North Macedonia (H) UEFA Nations League · 29 Sep
  • D 0-0 vs Scotland (H) UEFA Nations League · 26 Sep
  • L 1-2 at Croatia (A) Friendlies · 7 Jun

Switzerland

  • W 3-0 vs North Macedonia (H) UEFA Nations League · 6 Oct
  • W 2-1 vs Slovenia (H) UEFA Nations League · 3 Oct
  • W 3-0 at Scotland (A) UEFA Nations League · 29 Sep
  • W 3-0 at North Macedonia (A) UEFA Nations League · 26 Sep
  • D 1-1 vs Argentina (N) World Cup · 12 Jul

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Slovenia

Switzerland

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Slovenia

Player G A
Aljoša Matko 2 2
Danijel Šturm 1 2
Sandi Lovrić 1 0
Žan Vipotnik 1 0

Switzerland

Player G A
Zeki Amdouni 3 1
Dan Ndoye 2 3
Fabian Rieder 1 0
Johan Manzambi 1 0
Nico Elvedi 1 0

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Slovenia Switzerland
  • 4.5 Corners won 5.8
  • 3.0 Corners conceded 2.0
  • 3.2 Yellow cards 0.2
  • 1.5 Opponents' yellow cards 2.8

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 3.7 corners, 2.0 yellow cards.

Referee: Jasper Vergoote, 2 earlier matches in our data.

Attack and defence ratings

SloveniaSwitzerland
Attack 43 85
Defence 72 87

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1852Elo #35 Elo rating 2071Elo #9

Head-to-head

1Slovenia wins
1draw
5Switzerland wins

7 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 3 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League Switzerland 2-1 Slovenia
  • 13 Oct 2025 · World Cup Qualification UEFA Slovenia 0-0 Switzerland
  • 8 Sep 2025 · World Cup Qualification UEFA Switzerland 3-0 Slovenia
  • 5 Sep 2015 · EURO Qualification Switzerland 3-2 Slovenia
  • 9 Oct 2014 · EURO Qualification Slovenia 1-0 Switzerland

Table

League B - Group 1

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Switzerland 4 400 11:1 +10 12
2 Slovenia 4 211 5:3 +2 7
3 Scotland 4 112 3:5 -2 4
4 North Macedonia 4 004 0:10 -10 0

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

More UEFA Nations League matches

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Times are UTC.