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UEFA Nations League · League B, Matchday 5

Scotland vs North Macedonia Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Scotland crest Scotland
vs
North Macedonia crest North Macedonia
Barclays Hampden, Glasgow

Our picks

  • Result Scotland win
    Model probability 70% 21% 9%
  • Double chance Scotland or draw (1X)
    Model probability 91% 79% 30%
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Under 2.5
    Model probability
  • More corners Scotland
    Model probability
  • Yellow cards Around the league average(league 4.0)
    Model probability Over 3.5 Over 4.5 Over 5.5
  • Corners Above the league average(league 7.3)
    Model probability Over 8.5 Over 9.5 Over 10.5

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 2‑0
  2. #2 1‑0
  3. #3 3‑0

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Strong support
  • Recent goal difference balance Strong support
  • North Macedonia: Chance quality created vs conceded Moderate counter

See exactly how confident our model is

Both teams to score, over/under 2.5 goals, cards and corners: these probabilities are for members until the match is over.

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Why this pick?

Our model makes Scotland the pick, and the clearest argument is the gap between the sides: on our strength rating Scotland sit clearly above North Macedonia, and the goal model reads the matchup the same way. The one note of caution is North Macedonia's recent expected-goals form, a small counterweight rather than a real threat. The pick holds because Scotland's last five matches show them creating clearly more big chances than the league average, while North Macedonia have conceded shots and big chances well above the norm and created very little. Home advantage at Hampden settles it, and the call is a clear one.

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League B, Matchday 5
Kick-off
Venue
Barclays Hampden, Glasgow
Referee
Michal Očenáš
Since last match
Scotland: 38 days (UEFA Nations League) North Macedonia: 38 days (UEFA Nations League)
Next match
Scotland: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Switzerland North Macedonia: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Slovenia

Predicted line-ups

Scotland 3-5-1-1

  1. 1 Gunn
  2. 22 Patterson
  3. 13 Hendry
  4. 16 McKenna
  5. 17 Gannon-Doak
  6. 7 McGinn
  7. 19 Ferguson
  8. 8 Gilmour
  9. 3 Robertson
  10. 11 Christie
  11. 9 McBurnie

Coach: Sébastien Pocognoli Last match: vs Slovenia, 1-2 · UEFA Nations League B · 6 Oct

North Macedonia 4-2-3-1

  1. 23 Dimitrievski
  2. 4 Stojchevski
  3. 5 Zajkov
  4. 6 Musliu
  5. 8 Alioski
  6. 15 Elezi
  7. 7 Elmas
  8. 20 Mitrovski
  9. 10 Bardhi
  10. 19 Doriev
  11. 11 Rastoder

Coach: Goce Sedloski Last match: at Switzerland, 0-3 · UEFA Nations League B · 6 Oct

Our model's guess: the XIs of each club's recent matches, those of the same competition counting most, without the injured and suspended. On past matches it named 8.4 of the 11 starters on average. The official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Scotland

  • DF Luis BinksInjured · Early December 2026
  • DF Stephen WelshInjured · Doubtful

North Macedonia

No absences reported.

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Scotland

Moderate impact
Missing attack share 3.0%
Missing minutes share 8.0%
2 players out 2 regular starters out

North Macedonia

Low impact

Full squad available — no listed absences

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 7 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Scotland North Macedonia
Box & Territory Pressure 50 24
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 69 26
Finishing Efficiency 15 15
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 56 15
Underlying Play Power 53 15
Scotland Playing above results (positive regression candidate)
North Macedonia Playing above results (positive regression candidate)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 7 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Scotland

When scoring first 86% won · 86% unbeaten (7 matches)
When conceding first 17% points rescued · 17% won (6 matches)
1st Half: 39% 2nd Half: 61%
First 15': 17% Last 15' (76-90'): 33%

North Macedonia

When scoring first 75% won · 100% unbeaten (4 matches)
When conceding first 25% points rescued · 0% won (8 matches)
1st Half: 38% 2nd Half: 62%
First 15': 15% Last 15' (76-90'): 38%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Scotland

  1. 1. MF John McGinn 2G · 0A
    Team attack 16.0% Team shots 13.0%
  2. 2. FW Kieron Bowie 1G · 0A
    Team attack 12.0% Team shots 14.0%
  3. 3. FW Ben Gannon-Doak 0G · 0A
    Team attack 8.0% Team shots 11.0%

North Macedonia

  1. 1. MF Enis Bardhi 1G · 0A
    Team attack 18.0% Team shots 17.0%
  2. 2. MF Eljif Elmas 0G · 0A
    Team attack 9.0% Team shots 4.0%
  3. 3. FW Bojan Miovski 1G · 0A
    Team attack 9.0% Team shots 8.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Scotland North Macedonia
Over 1.5 goals 6/10 8/10
Over 2.5 goals 5/10 5/10
Over 3.5 goals 2/10 3/10
Both teams scored 2/10 2/10
Clean sheet 4/10 2/10
Failed to score 5/10 8/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 1.2 / 1.1 0.2 / 2.6

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Scotland

  • L 1-2 vs Slovenia (H) UEFA Nations League · 6 Oct
  • W 2-0 at North Macedonia (A) UEFA Nations League · 3 Oct
  • L 0-3 vs Switzerland (H) UEFA Nations League · 29 Sep
  • D 0-0 at Slovenia (A) UEFA Nations League · 26 Sep
  • L 0-3 vs Brazil (N) World Cup · 24 Jun

North Macedonia

  • L 0-3 at Switzerland (A) UEFA Nations League · 6 Oct
  • L 0-2 vs Scotland (H) UEFA Nations League · 3 Oct
  • L 0-2 at Slovenia (A) UEFA Nations League · 29 Sep
  • L 0-3 vs Switzerland (H) UEFA Nations League · 26 Sep
  • L 0-4 at Turkey (A) Friendlies · 1 Jun

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Scotland

North Macedonia

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Scotland

Player G A
John McGinn (1 pen) 1 0
Kieron Bowie 1 0
Ryan Christie 1 0

North Macedonia

No goals yet this season.

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Scotland North Macedonia
  • 4.0 Corners won 1.8
  • 4.0 Corners conceded 7.0
  • 1.2 Yellow cards 3.0
  • 3.0 Opponents' yellow cards 0.5

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 3.7 corners, 2.0 yellow cards.

Referee: Michal Očenáš, 2 earlier matches in our data.

Attack and defence ratings

ScotlandNorth Macedonia
Attack 70 32
Defence 75 34

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1925Elo #20 Elo rating 1744Elo #54

Head-to-head

2Scotland wins
1draw
0North Macedonia wins

3 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 3 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League North Macedonia 0-2 Scotland
  • 10 Sep 2013 · World Cup Qualification UEFA North Macedonia 1-2 Scotland
  • 11 Sep 2012 · World Cup Qualification UEFA Scotland 1-1 North Macedonia

Table

League B - Group 1

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Switzerland 4 400 11:1 +10 12
2 Slovenia 4 211 5:3 +2 7
3 Scotland 4 112 3:5 -2 4
4 North Macedonia 4 004 0:10 -10 0

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

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Times are UTC.