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UEFA Nations League · League D, Matchday 5

Liechtenstein vs Azerbaijan Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Liechtenstein crest Liechtenstein
vs
Azerbaijan crest Azerbaijan
Rheinpark Stadion, Vaduz

Our picks

  • Result Azerbaijan win
    Model probability 6% 15% 79%
  • Double chance Azerbaijan or draw (X2)
    Model probability 21% 85% 94%
  • Both teams to score No
    Model probability
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Under 2.5
    Model probability
  • More corners Azerbaijan
    Model probability
  • Yellow cards Below the league average(league 4.8)
    Model probability Over 3.5 Over 4.5 Over 5.5
  • Corners Around the league average(league 7.0)
    Model probability Over 8.5 Over 9.5 Over 10.5

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 0‑2
  2. #2 0‑1
  3. #3 0‑3

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Strong support
  • Recent goal difference balance Moderate support
  • Liechtenstein: Chance quality created vs conceded Low support

See exactly how confident our model is

Both teams to score, over/under 2.5 goals, cards and corners: these probabilities are for members until the match is over.

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Why this pick?

Our model makes Azerbaijan the clear pick in Vaduz, above all because its strength rating puts them well ahead of Liechtenstein. The caution is the October meeting between the sides, which finished goalless after Liechtenstein held out. That looks more like an outlier than a pattern: Liechtenstein have lost their other recent matches by two goals and create very little, with shots and clear chances well down on the league average. Azerbaijan are unbeaten in five, spend more time in the opposition box than most at this level and give up few chances. All of that makes the call a clear one.

Both teams to score: Our model expects few goals at the Rheinpark Stadion: Liechtenstein's attacking numbers sit well below the league average and Azerbaijan's recent matches have been low-scoring. The travel for the visitors is the one small counterweight.

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League D, Matchday 5
Kick-off
Venue
Rheinpark Stadion, Vaduz
Referee
Kristo Tohver (6.3 yellow cards per match over the last 9 matches)
Since last match
Liechtenstein: 39 days (Friendlies) Azerbaijan: 40 days (UEFA Nations League)
Next match
Liechtenstein: 2 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Lithuania Azerbaijan: 2 days (Friendlies) later

Predicted line-ups

Liechtenstein 5-3-2

  1. 1 Büchel
  2. 5 Weissenhofer
  3. 4 Traber
  4. 23 Hofer
  5. 18 Hasler
  6. 3 Göppel
  7. 8 Sele
  8. 10 Büchel
  9. 20 Hasler
  10. 13 Kindle
  11. 11 Lo Russo

Coach: Konrad Fünfstück Last match: at Azerbaijan, 0-0 · UEFA Nations League D · 1 Oct

Azerbaijan 3-4-3

  1. 1 Balayev
  2. 4 Məmmədov
  3. 15 Hüseynov
  4. 2 Daşdəmirov
  5. 19 Mütallimov
  6. 6 Khaybulaev
  7. 20 Isaev
  8. 3 Abbasov
  9. 7 Bayramov
  10. 10 Emreli
  11. 18 Mammadov

Coach: Aykhan Abbasov Last match: vs Lithuania, 1-0 · UEFA Nations League D · 4 Oct

Our model's guess: the XIs of each club's recent matches, those of the same competition counting most, without the injured and suspended. On past matches it named 8.4 of the 11 starters on average. The official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Liechtenstein

No absences reported.

Azerbaijan

No absences reported.

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Liechtenstein

Low impact

Full squad available — no listed absences

Azerbaijan

Low impact

Full squad available — no listed absences

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 5 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Liechtenstein Azerbaijan
Box & Territory Pressure 15 40
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 20 22
Finishing Efficiency 18 15
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 15 53
Underlying Play Power 15 40
Liechtenstein Balanced (results match underlying play)
Azerbaijan Playing above results (positive regression candidate)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 5 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Liechtenstein

When scoring first No matches in sample
When conceding first 8% points rescued · 0% won (12 matches)
1st Half: 33% 2nd Half: 67%
First 15': 0% Last 15' (76-90'): 33%

Azerbaijan

When scoring first 50% won · 50% unbeaten (2 matches)
When conceding first 18% points rescued · 0% won (11 matches)
1st Half: 75% 2nd Half: 25%
First 15': 25% Last 15' (76-90'): 12%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Liechtenstein

  1. 1. FW Fabio Luque Notaro 0G · 0A
    Team attack 18.0% Team shots 29.0%
  2. 2. FW Ferhat Sağlam 0G · 0A
    Team attack 9.0% Team shots 0.0%
  3. 3. DF Alessio Hasler 0G · 0A
    Team attack 8.0% Team shots 7.0%

Azerbaijan

  1. 1. FW Mahir Emreli 1G · 0A
    Team attack 22.0% Team shots 23.0%
  2. 2. MF Abdulakh Khaybulaev 1G · 0A
    Team attack 13.0% Team shots 12.0%
  3. 3. DF Tural Bayramov 0G · 1A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 7.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Liechtenstein Azerbaijan
Over 1.5 goals 7/10 7/10
Over 2.5 goals 2/10 3/10
Over 3.5 goals 2/10 2/10
Both teams scored 1/10 5/10
Clean sheet 2/10 3/10
Failed to score 8/10 3/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 0.2 / 2.2 1.3 / 1.1

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Liechtenstein

  • L 0-2 vs Gibraltar (H) Friendlies · 5 Oct
  • D 0-0 at Azerbaijan (A) UEFA Nations League · 1 Oct
  • L 0-2 at Malta (A) Friendlies · 27 Sep
  • L 0-2 vs Lithuania (H) UEFA Nations League · 24 Sep
  • L 0-2 vs Cyprus (H) Friendlies · 7 Jun

Azerbaijan

  • W 1-0 vs Lithuania (H) UEFA Nations League · 4 Oct
  • D 0-0 vs Liechtenstein (H) UEFA Nations League · 1 Oct
  • D 1-1 at Lithuania (A) UEFA Nations League · 27 Sep
  • W 1-0 vs Tajikistan (H) Friendlies · 23 Sep
  • W 2-1 vs San Marino (H) Friendlies · 9 Jun

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Liechtenstein

Azerbaijan

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Liechtenstein

No goals yet this season.

Azerbaijan

Player G A
Abdulakh Khaybulaev 1 0
Mahir Emreli 1 0

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Liechtenstein Azerbaijan
  • 0.0 Corners won 3.3
  • 7.0 Corners conceded 1.7
  • 2.0 Yellow cards 2.7
  • 1.5 Opponents' yellow cards 2.3

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 3.5 corners, 2.4 yellow cards.

Referee: Kristo Tohver, 6.3 yellow cards per match over the last 9 matches.

Attack and defence ratings

LiechtensteinAzerbaijan
Attack 0 15
Defence 2 15

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1123Elo #183 Elo rating 1529Elo #98

Head-to-head

0Liechtenstein wins
1draw
0Azerbaijan wins

1 meeting since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 1 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League Azerbaijan 0-0 Liechtenstein

Table

League D - Group 2

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Azerbaijan 3 120 2:1 +1 5
2 Lithuania 3 111 3:2 +1 4
3 Liechtenstein 2 011 0:2 -2 1

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

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Times are UTC.