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UEFA Nations League · League B, Matchday 5

Austria vs Ireland Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Austria crest Austria
vs
Ireland crest Ireland
Raiffeisen Arena, Linz

Our picks

  • Result Austria win
    Model probability 61% 23% 16%
  • Double chance Austria or draw (1X)
    Model probability 84% 77% 39%
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.5
    Model probability
  • More corners Austria
    Model probability
  • Yellow cards Around the league average(league 4.0)
    Model probability Over 3.5 Over 4.5 Over 5.5
  • Corners Above the league average(league 7.3)
    Model probability Over 8.5 Over 9.5 Over 10.5

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 2‑1
  2. #2 1‑1
  3. #3 2‑0

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Strong support
  • Recent goal difference balance Low support

See exactly how confident our model is

Both teams to score, over/under 2.5 goals, cards and corners: these probabilities are for members until the match is over.

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Why this pick?

Our model makes Austria the pick because it rates them clearly the stronger side on its long-run, xG-based strength rating, and they also have home advantage in Linz. The obvious counter is Ireland's record in this fixture: three of the five meetings since 2010 finished level, including a 2‑2 draw last month, and Ireland give little away. What makes up for that is the attacking gap — over their last five matches Austria sit above the league average for shots and big chances created, while Ireland's shot output is below it — and a home crowd behind them. The call is a clear one.

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League B, Matchday 5
Kick-off
Venue
Raiffeisen Arena, Linz
Referee
Irfan Peljto (4.1 yellow cards per match over the last 10 matches)
Since last match
Austria: 41 days (UEFA Nations League) Ireland: 41 days (UEFA Nations League)
Next match
Austria: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Israel Ireland: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Kosovo

Predicted line-ups

Austria 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Schlager
  2. 5 Posch
  3. 18 Bacher
  4. 3 Danso
  5. 20 Laimer
  6. 6 Seiwald
  7. 4 Schlager
  8. 17 Chukwuemeka
  9. 10 Schmid
  10. 22 Prass
  11. 11 Gregoritsch

Coach: Ralf Rangnick Last match: at Kosovo, 1-1 · UEFA Nations League B · 4 Oct

Ireland 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 Kelleher
  2. 5 O'Brien
  3. 2 Dunne
  4. 3 Scales
  5. 8 Knight
  6. 17 Moylan
  7. 14 Coventry
  8. 18 Manning
  9. 10 Idah
  10. 6 Molumby
  11. 7 Parrott

Coach: Heimir Hallgrímsson Last match: vs Israel, 1-1 · UEFA Nations League B · 4 Oct

Our model's guess: the XIs of each club's recent matches, those of the same competition counting most, without the injured and suspended. On past matches it named 8.4 of the 11 starters on average. The official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Austria

  • DF Maximilian WöberInjured · Early January 2027
  • DF Nikolas VeratschnigInjured · Mid December 2026
  • MF Patrick WimmerInjured · Mid November 2026
  • MF Paul WannerInjured · Day to day

Ireland

  • GK Gavin BazunuInjured · About 1-2 weeks

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Austria

Moderate impact
Missing attack share 13.0%
Missing minutes share 10.0%
4 players out 1 regular starter out
Key absences:
  • MF Patrick Wimmer 8% attack · 4% mins
  • MF Paul Wanner 4% attack · 4% mins

Ireland

Low impact
Missing attack share 0.0%
Missing minutes share 1.0%
1 player out

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 8 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Austria Ireland
Box & Territory Pressure 50 39
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 34 47
Finishing Efficiency 89 89
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 34 64
Underlying Play Power 45 53
Austria Results above play quality (running hot)
Ireland Results above play quality (running hot)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 8 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Austria

When scoring first 89% won · 100% unbeaten (9 matches)
When conceding first 50% points rescued · 0% won (6 matches)
1st Half: 46% 2nd Half: 54%
First 15': 14% Last 15' (76-90'): 31%

Ireland

When scoring first 50% won · 100% unbeaten (6 matches)
When conceding first 50% points rescued · 38% won (8 matches)
1st Half: 62% 2nd Half: 38%
First 15': 14% Last 15' (76-90'): 19%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Austria

  1. 1. MF Romano Schmid 2G · 1A
    Team attack 12.0% Team shots 8.0%
  2. 2. FW Saša Kalajdžić 2G · 1A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 11.0%
  3. 3. FW Marko Arnautovic 2G · 0A
    Team attack 7.0% Team shots 3.0%

Ireland

  1. 1. FW Troy Parrott 8G · 0A
    Team attack 36.0% Team shots 28.0%
  2. 2. FW Adam Idah 1G · 1A
    Team attack 10.0% Team shots 16.0%
  3. 3. MF Jack Moylan 1G · 1A
    Team attack 9.0% Team shots 4.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Austria Ireland
Over 1.5 goals 8/10 7/10
Over 2.5 goals 6/10 5/10
Over 3.5 goals 5/10 4/10
Both teams scored 6/10 5/10
Clean sheet 2/10 4/10
Failed to score 2/10 2/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 1.7 / 1.4 1.8 / 0.9

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Austria

  • D 1-1 at Kosovo (A) UEFA Nations League · 4 Oct
  • D 2-2 at Ireland (A) UEFA Nations League · 1 Oct
  • W 3-1 vs Kosovo (H) UEFA Nations League · 27 Sep
  • W 3-1 vs Israel (H) UEFA Nations League · 24 Sep
  • L 0-3 vs Spain (N) World Cup · 2 Jul

Ireland

  • D 1-1 vs Israel (N) UEFA Nations League · 4 Oct
  • D 2-2 vs Austria (H) UEFA Nations League · 1 Oct
  • W 3-0 vs Israel (N) UEFA Nations League · 27 Sep
  • L 0-1 at Kosovo (A) UEFA Nations League · 24 Sep
  • D 1-1 at Canada (A) Friendlies · 5 Jun

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Austria

Ireland

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Austria

Player G A
Christoph Lang 1 1
Romano Schmid (1 pen) 1 1
Saša Kalajdžić 1 1
Alexander Prass 1 0
Carney Chukwuemeka 1 0

Ireland

Player G A
Troy Parrott (2 pens) 4 0
Adam Idah 1 1
Jack Moylan 1 1

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Austria Ireland
  • 4.8 Corners won 2.5
  • 2.2 Corners conceded 2.8
  • 1.5 Yellow cards 1.8
  • 1.8 Opponents' yellow cards 1.2

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 3.7 corners, 2.0 yellow cards.

Referee: Irfan Peljto, 4.1 yellow cards per match over the last 10 matches.

Attack and defence ratings

AustriaIreland
Attack 77 47
Defence 74 60

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1971Elo #15 Elo rating 1856Elo #33

Head-to-head

1Austria wins
3draws
1Ireland wins

5 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 1 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League Ireland 2-2 Austria
  • 11 Jun 2017 · World Cup Qualification UEFA Ireland 1-1 Austria
  • 12 Nov 2016 · World Cup Qualification UEFA Austria 0-1 Ireland
  • 10 Sep 2013 · World Cup Qualification UEFA Austria 1-0 Ireland
  • 26 Mar 2013 · World Cup Qualification UEFA Ireland 2-2 Austria

Table

League B - Group 3

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Austria 4 220 9:5 +4 8
2 Ireland 4 121 6:4 +2 5
3 Kosovo 4 121 3:4 -1 5
4 Israel 4 022 2:7 -5 2

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

More UEFA Nations League matches

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Times are UTC.