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UEFA Nations League · League B, Matchday 5

Romania vs Poland Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Romania crest Romania
vs
Poland crest Poland
Arena Naţională, Bucureşti

Our picks

  • Result Poland win
    Model probability 27% 25% 49%
  • Double chance Romania or Poland (12)
    Model probability 51% 75% 73%
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Under 2.5
    Model probability
  • More corners Poland
    Model probability
  • Yellow cards Around the league average(league 4.0)
    Model probability Over 3.5 Over 4.5 Over 5.5
  • Corners Above the league average(league 7.3)
    Model probability Over 8.5 Over 9.5 Over 10.5

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 0‑1
  2. #2 1‑1
  3. #3 1‑2

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Strong support
  • Romania: Chance quality created vs conceded Low support

See exactly how confident our model is

Both teams to score, over/under 2.5 goals, cards and corners: these probabilities are for members until the match is over.

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Why this pick?

Our model goes with a Poland win, mainly because it rates Poland the stronger side on its long-run, expected-goals-based strength rating. The obvious counterweight is Romania's home advantage at the Arena Naţională. Poland's recent play answers it: they shoot clearly more than the league average, get into the box far more often, and concede few shots and clearly fewer big chances, while Romania's big-chance creation sits clearly short of the rest and their defence gives up more shots and big chances than most. Three Poland wins in three meetings since 2010, October's 6‑0 among them, point the same way, and the call is moderately clear.

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League B, Matchday 5
Kick-off
Venue
Arena Naţională, Bucureşti
Referee
Sebastian Gishamer (4.0 yellow cards per match over the last 8 matches)
Since last match
Romania: 40 days (UEFA Nations League) Poland: 40 days (UEFA Nations League)
Next match
Romania: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Bosnia and Herzegovina Poland: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Sweden

Predicted line-ups

Romania 4-2-3-1

  1. 12 Hindrich
  2. 2 Rațiu
  3. 4 Coubiș
  4. 3 Ilie
  5. 11 Bancu
  6. 22 Dragomir
  7. 6 Băluță
  8. 20 Man
  9. 10 Stanciu
  10. 7 Olaru
  11. 9 Tănase

Coach: Gheorghe Hagi Last match: vs Sweden, 0-1 · UEFA Nations League B · 5 Oct

Poland 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Bułka
  2. 2 Cash
  3. 23 Potulski
  4. 14 Kiwior
  5. 3 Wiśniewski
  6. 9 Lewandowski
  7. 16 Nowak
  8. 11 Świderski
  9. 20 Szymański
  10. 21 Zalewski
  11. 9 Żukowski

Coach: Jan Urban Last match: at Bosnia and Herzegovina, 0-1 · UEFA Nations League B · 5 Oct

Our model's guess: the XIs of each club's recent matches, those of the same competition counting most, without the injured and suspended. On past matches it named 8.4 of the 11 starters on average. The official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Romania

  • MF Răzvan MarinSuspended · Mid November 2026

Poland

  • DF Jan BednarekSuspended · Mid November 2026
  • DF Przemysław FrankowskiInjured · A few weeks
  • MF Marcel RegułaInjured · Doubtful
  • MF Piotr ZielińskiInjured · Doubtful

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Romania

Moderate impact
Missing attack share 4.0%
Missing minutes share 5.0%
1 player out 1 regular starter out
Key absences:
  • MF Răzvan Marin 4% attack · 5% mins

Poland

Moderate impact
Missing attack share 21.0%
Missing minutes share 17.0%
4 players out 2 regular starters out
Key absences:
  • MF Piotr Zieliński 16% attack · 8% mins
  • DF Jan Bednarek 3% attack · 6% mins

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 8 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Romania Poland
Box & Territory Pressure 39 59
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 27 44
Finishing Efficiency 57 64
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 15 69
Underlying Play Power 32 62
Romania Playing above results (positive regression candidate)
Poland Balanced (results match underlying play)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 8 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Romania

When scoring first 67% won · 83% unbeaten (6 matches)
When conceding first 22% points rescued · 22% won (9 matches)
1st Half: 54% 2nd Half: 46%
First 15': 14% Last 15' (76-90'): 29%

Poland

When scoring first 86% won · 100% unbeaten (7 matches)
When conceding first 29% points rescued · 14% won (7 matches)
1st Half: 35% 2nd Half: 65%
First 15': 4% Last 15' (76-90'): 15%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Romania

  1. 1. FW Dennis Man 2G · 0A
    Team attack 14.0% Team shots 17.0%
  2. 2. FW Daniel Bîrligea 2G · 0A
    Team attack 14.0% Team shots 16.0%
  3. 3. DF Andrei Rațiu 1G · 1A
    Team attack 9.0% Team shots 6.0%

Poland

  1. 1. FW Robert Lewandowski 5G · 2A
    Team attack 18.0% Team shots 15.0%
  2. 2. MF Nicola Zalewski 1G · 3A
    Team attack 12.0% Team shots 7.0%
  3. 3. MF Sebastian Szymański 1G · 3A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 7.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Romania Poland
Over 1.5 goals 8/10 8/10
Over 2.5 goals 6/10 6/10
Over 3.5 goals 4/10 5/10
Both teams scored 6/10 6/10
Clean sheet 0/10 2/10
Failed to score 4/10 3/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 1.4 / 2.2 1.7 / 1.5

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Romania

  • L 0-1 vs Sweden (H) UEFA Nations League · 5 Oct
  • L 0-6 at Poland (A) UEFA Nations League · 2 Oct
  • L 2-4 vs Bosnia and Herzegovina (H) UEFA Nations League · 28 Sep
  • L 1-2 at Sweden (A) UEFA Nations League · 25 Sep
  • W 2-1 vs Wales (H) Friendlies · 6 Jun

Poland

  • L 0-1 at Bosnia and Herzegovina (A) UEFA Nations League · 5 Oct
  • W 6-0 vs Romania (H) UEFA Nations League · 2 Oct
  • L 1-3 at Sweden (A) UEFA Nations League · 28 Sep
  • D 0-0 vs Bosnia and Herzegovina (H) UEFA Nations League · 25 Sep
  • D 2-2 vs Nigeria (H) Friendlies · 3 Jun

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Romania

Poland

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Romania

Player G A
Alexandru Cicâldau 1 0
Daniel Bîrligea 1 0
Dennis Man 1 0

Poland

Player G A
Robert Lewandowski (1 pen) 3 0
Sebastian Szymański 1 1
Jan Bednarek 1 0
Piotr Zieliński 1 0

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Romania Poland
  • 2.5 Corners won 5.5
  • 4.2 Corners conceded 2.5
  • 3.0 Yellow cards 2.8
  • 1.5 Opponents' yellow cards 3.0

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 3.7 corners, 2.0 yellow cards.

Referee: Sebastian Gishamer, 4.0 yellow cards per match over the last 8 matches.

Attack and defence ratings

RomaniaPoland
Attack 53 66
Defence 42 49

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1794Elo #43 Elo rating 1885Elo #27

Head-to-head

0Romania wins
0draws
3Poland wins

3 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 2 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League Poland 6-0 Romania
  • 10 Jun 2017 · World Cup Qualification UEFA Poland 3-1 Romania
  • 11 Nov 2016 · World Cup Qualification UEFA Romania 0-3 Poland

Table

League B - Group 4

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Sweden 4 310 7:3 +4 10
2 Bosnia and Herzegovina 4 220 6:3 +3 8
3 Poland 4 112 7:4 +3 4
4 Romania 4 004 3:13 -10 0

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

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Times are UTC.