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UEFA Nations League · League B, Matchday 5

Georgia vs Hungary Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Georgia crest Georgia
vs
Hungary crest Hungary
Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni, Tbilisi

Our picks

  • Result Hungary win
    Model probability 35% 28% 37%
  • Double chance Georgia or Hungary (12)
    Model probability 63% 72% 65%
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.5
    Model probability
  • More corners Hungary
    Model probability
  • Yellow cards Above the league average(league 4.0)
    Model probability Over 3.5 Over 4.5 Over 5.5
  • Corners Above the league average(league 7.3)
    Model probability Over 8.5 Over 9.5 Over 10.5

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 1‑2
  2. #2 1‑1
  3. #3 2‑1

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Strong support
  • Recent goal difference balance Moderate counter
  • Georgia: Recent shot, box and corner dominance Low counter

See exactly how confident our model is

Both teams to score, over/under 2.5 goals, cards and corners: these probabilities are for members until the match is over.

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Why this pick?

Hungary are the pick because our model rates them the stronger side, and that edge is not a small one. The obvious counterweight is the home advantage Georgia enjoy, which counts for a good deal. Georgia have also been getting into the opposition box more than the average side over their last five matches, though their shooting numbers sit around the league mark. What settles it is Hungary's body of work in the same stretch — clearly more shots than the league average — plus the 1‑0 win when the two met in October. Even so, the call is narrow.

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League B, Matchday 5
Kick-off
Venue
Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni, Tbilisi
Referee
Ondřej Berka (4.0 yellow cards per match over the last 5 matches)
Since last match
Georgia: 39 days (UEFA Nations League) Hungary: 39 days (UEFA Nations League)
Next match
Georgia: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Ukraine Hungary: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Northern Ireland

Predicted line-ups

Georgia 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Mamardashvili
  2. 2 Kakabadze
  3. 20 Sazonov
  4. 3 Dvali
  5. 4 Lochoshvili
  6. 18 Yegoian
  7. 14 Mekvabishvili
  8. 15 Mamageishvili
  9. 9 Davitashvili
  10. 7 Kvaratskhelia
  11. 11 Zivzivadze

Coach: Ramaz Svanadze Last match: at Northern Ireland, 0-0 · UEFA Nations League B · 5 Oct

Hungary 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Tóth
  2. 2 Osváth
  3. 6 Orbán
  4. 3 Csinger
  5. 18 Nagy
  6. 13 Schäfer
  7. 10 Szoboszlai
  8. 16 Lukács
  9. 8 Vitális
  10. 21 Tóth
  11. 20 Toth

Coach: Marco Rossi Last match: at Ukraine, 2-1 · UEFA Nations League B · 5 Oct

Our model's guess: the XIs of each club's recent matches, those of the same competition counting most, without the injured and suspended. On past matches it named 8.4 of the 11 starters on average. The official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Georgia

  • MF Giorgi KochorashviliSuspended · Mid November 2026

Hungary

No absences reported.

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Georgia

Moderate impact
Missing attack share 4.0%
Missing minutes share 5.0%
1 player out 1 regular starter out
Key absences:
  • MF Giorgi Kochorashvili 4% attack · 5% mins

Hungary

Low impact

Full squad available — no listed absences

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 6 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Georgia Hungary
Box & Territory Pressure 36 55
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 52 71
Finishing Efficiency 15 15
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 73 77
Underlying Play Power 32 61
Georgia Playing above results (positive regression candidate)
Hungary Balanced (results match underlying play)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 6 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Georgia

When scoring first 100% won · 100% unbeaten (3 matches)
When conceding first 10% points rescued · 0% won (10 matches)
1st Half: 50% 2nd Half: 50%
First 15': 11% Last 15' (76-90'): 17%

Hungary

When scoring first 50% won · 75% unbeaten (8 matches)
When conceding first 20% points rescued · 0% won (5 matches)
1st Half: 56% 2nd Half: 44%
First 15': 25% Last 15' (76-90'): 31%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Georgia

  1. 1. FW Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 0G · 0A
    Team attack 19.0% Team shots 19.0%
  2. 2. FW Zuriko Davitashvili 0G · 0A
    Team attack 8.0% Team shots 6.0%
  3. 3. DF Luka Lochoshvili 1G · 0A
    Team attack 8.0% Team shots 6.0%

Hungary

  1. 1. MF Dominik Szoboszlai 0G · 2A
    Team attack 19.0% Team shots 15.0%
  2. 2. FW Dániel Lukács 1G · 1A
    Team attack 8.0% Team shots 4.0%
  3. 3. FW Barnabas Varga 2G · 0A
    Team attack 8.0% Team shots 7.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Georgia Hungary
Over 1.5 goals 6/10 4/10
Over 2.5 goals 3/10 4/10
Over 3.5 goals 2/10 2/10
Both teams scored 3/10 4/10
Clean sheet 4/10 5/10
Failed to score 5/10 3/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 0.8 / 1.1 1.2 / 0.7

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Georgia

  • D 0-0 at Northern Ireland (A) UEFA Nations League · 5 Oct
  • L 0-1 at Hungary (A) UEFA Nations League · 2 Oct
  • D 0-0 vs Ukraine (H) UEFA Nations League · 28 Sep
  • L 0-1 vs Northern Ireland (H) UEFA Nations League · 25 Sep
  • W 2-0 vs Bahrain (H) Friendlies · 5 Jun

Hungary

  • W 2-1 vs Ukraine (N) UEFA Nations League · 5 Oct
  • W 1-0 vs Georgia (H) UEFA Nations League · 2 Oct
  • D 0-0 at Northern Ireland (A) UEFA Nations League · 28 Sep
  • L 0-1 vs Ukraine (H) UEFA Nations League · 25 Sep
  • W 3-1 vs Kazakhstan (H) Friendlies · 9 Jun

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Georgia

Hungary

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Georgia

No goals yet this season.

Hungary

Player G A
Milan Toth 1 0
Miloš Kerkez 1 0
Márk Csinger 1 0

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Georgia Hungary
  • 5.2 Corners won 4.5
  • 4.2 Corners conceded 3.5
  • 2.2 Yellow cards 2.8
  • 2.5 Opponents' yellow cards 2.8

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 3.7 corners, 2.0 yellow cards.

Referee: Ondřej Berka, 4.0 yellow cards per match over the last 5 matches.

Attack and defence ratings

GeorgiaHungary
Attack 49 60
Defence 47 62

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1799Elo #42 Elo rating 1927Elo #19

Head-to-head

0Georgia wins
0draws
1Hungary wins

1 meeting since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 2 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League Hungary 1-0 Georgia

Table

League B - Group 2

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Northern Ireland 4 220 4:0 +4 8
2 Hungary 4 211 3:2 +1 7
3 Ukraine 4 112 2:5 -3 4
4 Georgia 4 022 0:2 -2 2

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

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Times are UTC.