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UEFA Nations League · League A, Matchday 5

Portugal vs Denmark Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Portugal crest Portugal
vs
Denmark crest Denmark
Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga

Our picks

  • Result Portugal win
    Model probability 67% 21% 13%
  • Double chance Portugal or draw (1X)
    Model probability 87% 79% 33%
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.5
    Model probability
  • More corners Portugal
    Model probability
  • Yellow cards Around the league average(league 3.7)
    Model probability Over 3.5 Over 4.5 Over 5.5
  • Corners Above the league average(league 8.8)
    Model probability Over 8.5 Over 9.5 Over 10.5

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 2‑1
  2. #2 2‑0
  3. #3 3‑1

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Strong support
  • Recent goal difference balance Moderate support
  • Portugal: Recent shot, box and corner dominance Low support

See exactly how confident our model is

Both teams to score, over/under 2.5 goals, cards and corners: these probabilities are for members until the match is over.

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Why this pick?

Our model's result pick is a Portugal win, and the foundation is the gap in our strength ratings: Portugal stand at 91 in attack and 96 in defence, Denmark at 81 and 83. The counterargument is there in the head-to-head, where Denmark have taken two of the eight meetings since 2010 and arrive on the back of an away victory. What answers it is Portugal's run of four wins in five, including the 4‑2 in Denmark on 1 October, together with the advantage of playing in Braga, while Denmark have been carving out clearly fewer big chances than the league average. The call is a clear one.

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League A, Matchday 5
Kick-off
Venue
Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga
Referee
Rade Obrenović (3.5 yellow cards per match over the last 10 matches)
Since last match
Portugal: 41 days (UEFA Nations League) Denmark: 41 days (UEFA Nations League)
Next match
Portugal: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Wales Denmark: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Norway

Predicted line-ups

Portugal 4-1-3-2

  1. 1 Costa
  2. 21 Neves
  3. 3 Dias
  4. 13 Veiga
  5. 19 Mendes
  6. 6 Palhinha
  7. 17 Neto
  8. 23 Vítinha
  9. 8 Fernandes
  10. 11 Félix
  11. 9 Ramos

Coach: Jorge Jesus Last match: vs Norway, 2-1 · UEFA Nations League · 4 Oct

Denmark 4-4-2

  1. 16 Hermansen
  2. 13 Kristensen
  3. 2 Andersen
  4. 3 Provstgaard
  5. 5 Mæhle
  6. 8 Isaksen
  7. 21 Hjulmand
  8. 23 Højbjerg
  9. 20 Daramy
  10. 9 Højlund
  11. 7 Froholdt

Coach: Brian Riemer Last match: at Wales, 1-0 · UEFA Nations League · 4 Oct

Our model's guess: the XIs of each club's recent matches, those of the same competition counting most, without the injured and suspended. On past matches it named 8.4 of the 11 starters on average. The official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Portugal

  • DF João CanceloSuspended · Mid November 2026
  • FW Francisco ConceiçãoSuspended · Mid November 2026
  • DF Nuno TavaresInjured · Early December 2026
  • FW Rafael LeãoInjured · Late November 2026

Denmark

No absences reported.

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Portugal

Moderate impact
Missing attack share 17.0%
Missing minutes share 12.0%
4 players out 1 regular starter out
Key absences:
  • DF João Cancelo 7% attack · 6% mins
  • FW Francisco Conceição 5% attack · 3% mins

Denmark

Low impact

Full squad available — no listed absences

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 9 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Portugal Denmark
Box & Territory Pressure 55 73
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 52 72
Finishing Efficiency 64 86
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 78 28
Underlying Play Power 64 70
Portugal Results above play quality (running hot)
Denmark Balanced (results match underlying play)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 9 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Portugal

When scoring first 86% won · 100% unbeaten (7 matches)
When conceding first 67% points rescued · 50% won (6 matches)
1st Half: 53% 2nd Half: 47%
First 15': 12% Last 15' (76-90'): 25%

Denmark

When scoring first 88% won · 100% unbeaten (8 matches)
When conceding first 20% points rescued · 0% won (5 matches)
1st Half: 35% 2nd Half: 65%
First 15': 6% Last 15' (76-90'): 19%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Portugal

  1. 1. FW Cristiano Ronaldo 3G · 0A
    Team attack 13.0% Team shots 18.0%
  2. 2. MF Bruno Fernandes 0G · 3A
    Team attack 12.0% Team shots 10.0%
  3. 3. FW Gonçalo Ramos 4G · 1A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 10.0%

Denmark

  1. 1. MF Mikkel Damsgaard 5G · 4A
    Team attack 17.0% Team shots 11.0%
  2. 2. FW Rasmus Højlund 5G · 0A
    Team attack 16.0% Team shots 17.0%
  3. 3. FW Gustav Isaksen 4G · 0A
    Team attack 14.0% Team shots 17.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Portugal Denmark
Over 1.5 goals 7/10 8/10
Over 2.5 goals 6/10 6/10
Over 3.5 goals 2/10 6/10
Both teams scored 6/10 6/10
Clean sheet 3/10 4/10
Failed to score 2/10 1/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 1.9 / 0.8 1.9 / 1.5

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Portugal

  • W 2-1 vs Norway (H) UEFA Nations League · 4 Oct
  • W 4-2 at Denmark (A) UEFA Nations League · 1 Oct
  • W 2-1 at Norway (A) UEFA Nations League · 27 Sep
  • W 1-0 vs Wales (H) UEFA Nations League · 24 Sep
  • L 0-1 vs Spain (N) World Cup · 6 Jul

Denmark

  • W 1-0 at Wales (A) UEFA Nations League · 4 Oct
  • L 2-4 vs Portugal (H) UEFA Nations League · 1 Oct
  • W 2-0 vs Wales (H) UEFA Nations League · 27 Sep
  • L 2-3 at Norway (A) UEFA Nations League · 24 Sep
  • D 0-0 at DR Congo (A) Friendlies · 3 Jun

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Portugal

Denmark

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Portugal

Player G A
Gonçalo Ramos 3 1
Joao Félix 3 1
João Cancelo 2 0
Vítinha 1 0

Denmark

Player G A
Rasmus Højlund (1 pen) 3 0
Mikkel Damsgaard 2 1
Gustav Isaksen 1 0

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Portugal Denmark
  • 6.2 Corners won 3.8
  • 4.0 Corners conceded 4.5
  • 2.2 Yellow cards 1.5
  • 1.2 Opponents' yellow cards 1.5

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 4.5 corners, 1.8 yellow cards.

Referee: Rade Obrenović, 3.5 yellow cards per match over the last 10 matches.

Attack and defence ratings

PortugalDenmark
Attack 91 81
Defence 96 83

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

2180Elo #4 Elo rating 2044Elo #11

Head-to-head

6Portugal wins
0draws
2Denmark wins

8 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 1 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League Denmark 2-4 Portugal
  • 23 Mar 2025 · UEFA Nations League Portugal 3-2 Denmark
  • 20 Mar 2025 · UEFA Nations League Denmark 1-0 Portugal
  • 8 Oct 2015 · EURO Qualification Portugal 1-0 Denmark
  • 14 Oct 2014 · EURO Qualification Denmark 0-1 Portugal

Table

League A - Group 4

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Portugal 4 400 9:4 +5 12
2 Denmark 4 202 7:7 0 6
3 Norway 4 103 6:8 -2 3
4 Wales 4 103 2:5 -3 3

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

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Times are UTC.