OptimaGoal
EN
UEFA Nations League · League A, Matchday 5

Norway vs Wales Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Norway crest Norway
vs
Wales crest Wales
Ullevaal Stadion, Oslo

Our picks

  • Result Norway win
    Model probability 70% 19% 10%
  • Double chance Norway or draw (1X)
    Model probability 90% 81% 30%
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.5
    Model probability
  • More corners Norway
    Model probability
  • Yellow cards Below the league average(league 3.8)
    Model probability Over 3.5 Over 4.5 Over 5.5
  • Corners Around the league average(league 8.9)
    Model probability Over 8.5 Over 9.5 Over 10.5

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 2‑0
  2. #2 2‑1
  3. #3 3‑0

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Strong support
  • Recent goal difference balance Strong support
  • Norway: Recent shot, box and corner dominance Low support

See exactly how confident our model is

Both teams to score, over/under 2.5 goals, cards and corners: these probabilities are for members until the match is over.

$6.99 / month · That is about $0.23 a day

Unlock probabilities

Why this pick?

Our model's result pick is a Norway win, and the main reason is a strength rating that puts Norway above Wales, with the goal model reading the matchup the same way. The strongest point against it is the reverse fixture: Wales won that one 2‑1 in October, the only meeting between the sides since 2010. Norway's home advantage at Ullevaal helps to offset that, and Wales' recent play is the weaker of the two, with clearly fewer big chances created than the league average over their last five and more shots conceded. Norway's own attacking numbers are only modest, but the overall case is strong enough for a clear call.

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League A, Matchday 5
Kick-off
Venue
Ullevaal Stadion, Oslo
Referee
Oleksiy Derevinskyi
Since last match
Norway: 40 days (UEFA Nations League) Wales: 40 days (UEFA Nations League)
Next match
Norway: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Denmark Wales: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Portugal

Predicted line-ups

Norway 4-3-3

  1. 13 Selvik
  2. 7 Aursnes
  3. 3 Ajer
  4. 4 Østigard
  5. 5 Wolfe
  6. 10 Ødegaard
  7. 8 Berge
  8. 6 Berg
  9. 21 Schjelderup
  10. 9 Haaland
  11. 20 Nusa

Coach: Ståle Solbakken Last match: at Portugal, 1-2 · UEFA Nations League · 4 Oct

Wales 4-2-3-1

  1. 12 Ward
  2. 3 Williams
  3. 2 Mepham
  4. 4 Davies
  5. 15 Dasilva
  6. 5 Ampadu
  7. 17 James
  8. 11 Johnson
  9. 10 Cullen
  10. 20 James
  11. 9 Koumas

Coach: Craig Bellamy Last match: vs Denmark, 0-1 · UEFA Nations League · 4 Oct

Our model's guess: the XIs of each club's recent matches, those of the same competition counting most, without the injured and suspended. On past matches it named 8.4 of the 11 starters on average. The official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Norway

  • DF Sondre Klingen LangåsInjured · Early January 2027

Wales

  • DF Ben CabangoSuspended · Mid November 2026
  • FW Sorba ThomasSuspended · Mid November 2026

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Norway

Low impact
Missing attack share 0.0%
Missing minutes share 1.0%
1 player out

Wales

Moderate impact
Missing attack share 10.0%
Missing minutes share 9.0%
2 players out 2 regular starters out
Key absences:
  • FW Sorba Thomas 10% attack · 5% mins

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 10 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Norway Wales
Box & Territory Pressure 53 47
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 62 42
Finishing Efficiency 78 73
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 35 57
Underlying Play Power 56 59
Norway Balanced (results match underlying play)
Wales Results above play quality (running hot)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 10 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Norway

When scoring first 73% won · 82% unbeaten (11 matches)
When conceding first 33% points rescued · 33% won (3 matches)
1st Half: 42% 2nd Half: 58%
First 15': 9% Last 15' (76-90'): 28%

Wales

When scoring first 71% won · 86% unbeaten (7 matches)
When conceding first 43% points rescued · 29% won (7 matches)
1st Half: 39% 2nd Half: 61%
First 15': 7% Last 15' (76-90'): 21%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Norway

  1. 1. FW Erling Haaland 10G · 0A
    Team attack 26.0% Team shots 31.0%
  2. 2. MF Martin Ødegaard 0G · 8A
    Team attack 15.0% Team shots 13.0%
  3. 3. FW Andreas Schjelderup 1G · 3A
    Team attack 9.0% Team shots 7.0%

Wales

  1. 1. FW Daniel James 3G · 1A
    Team attack 16.0% Team shots 14.0%
  2. 2. FW Harry Wilson 3G · 1A
    Team attack 13.0% Team shots 11.0%
  3. 3. FW Brennan Johnson 1G · 1A
    Team attack 10.0% Team shots 8.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Norway Wales
Over 1.5 goals 10/10 7/10
Over 2.5 goals 9/10 3/10
Over 3.5 goals 4/10 1/10
Both teams scored 10/10 6/10
Clean sheet 0/10 1/10
Failed to score 0/10 3/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 1.9 / 1.8 1.4 / 1.1

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Norway

  • L 1-2 at Portugal (A) UEFA Nations League · 4 Oct
  • L 1-2 at Wales (A) UEFA Nations League · 1 Oct
  • L 1-2 vs Portugal (H) UEFA Nations League · 27 Sep
  • W 3-2 vs Denmark (H) UEFA Nations League · 24 Sep
  • D 1-1 vs England (N) World Cup · 11 Jul

Wales

  • L 0-1 vs Denmark (H) UEFA Nations League · 4 Oct
  • W 2-1 vs Norway (H) UEFA Nations League · 1 Oct
  • L 0-2 at Denmark (A) UEFA Nations League · 27 Sep
  • L 0-1 at Portugal (A) UEFA Nations League · 24 Sep
  • L 1-2 at Romania (A) Friendlies · 6 Jun

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Norway

Wales

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Norway

Player G A
Erling Haaland 3 0
Oscar Bobb 2 0
Kristoffer Ajer 1 0

Wales

Player G A
Daniel James 1 0
Neco Williams 1 0

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Norway Wales
  • 4.5 Corners won 3.0
  • 4.5 Corners conceded 4.5
  • 1.0 Yellow cards 2.2
  • 3.5 Opponents' yellow cards 0.8

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 4.5 corners, 1.8 yellow cards.

Referee: Oleksiy Derevinskyi, 1 earlier match in our data.

Attack and defence ratings

NorwayWales
Attack 96 55
Defence 79 68

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

2023Elo #12 Elo rating 1922Elo #21

Head-to-head

0Norway wins
0draws
1Wales wins

1 meeting since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 1 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League Wales 2-1 Norway

Table

League A - Group 4

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Portugal 4 400 9:4 +5 12
2 Denmark 4 202 7:7 0 6
3 Norway 4 103 6:8 -2 3
4 Wales 4 103 2:5 -3 3

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

More UEFA Nations League matches

All fixtures

Times are UTC.