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UEFA Nations League · League B, Matchday 5

Northern Ireland vs Ukraine Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Northern Ireland crest Northern Ireland
vs
Ukraine crest Ukraine
Clearer Twist National Stadium at Windsor Park, Belfast

Our picks

  • Result Northern Ireland win
    Model probability 38% 32% 30%
  • Double chance Northern Ireland or draw (1X)
    Model probability 70% 68% 62%
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Under 2.5
    Model probability
  • More corners Northern Ireland
    Model probability
  • Yellow cards Above the league average(league 4.0)
    Model probability Over 3.5 Over 4.5 Over 5.5
  • Corners Above the league average(league 7.3)
    Model probability Over 8.5 Over 9.5 Over 10.5

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 1‑0
  2. #2 1‑1
  3. #3 0‑0

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Strong counter
  • Recent goal difference balance Moderate counter

See exactly how confident our model is

Both teams to score, over/under 2.5 goals, cards and corners: these probabilities are for members until the match is over.

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Why this pick?

Our model's pick is a Northern Ireland win, and the first reason is home advantage at Windsor Park. The strongest argument the other way is that Ukraine sit higher on our long-run, xG-based strength rating, and the goal model's reading of the matchup leans their way too. It holds on the shape of the game: Northern Ireland have conceded clearly fewer big chances than the league average across their last five, while Ukraine have struggled to create clear openings of their own over the same span, so the visitors' edge has little to work with. Both meetings since 2010 went Northern Ireland's way, the latest 3‑0. The call is narrow.

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League B, Matchday 5
Kick-off
Venue
Clearer Twist National Stadium at Windsor Park, Belfast
Referee
François Letexier (4.3 yellow cards per match over the last 19 matches)
Since last match
Northern Ireland: 40 days (UEFA Nations League) Ukraine: 40 days (UEFA Nations League)
Next match
Northern Ireland: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Hungary Ukraine: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Georgia

Predicted line-ups

Northern Ireland 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 Charles
  2. 4 Atcheson
  3. 15 McConville
  4. 22 Brown
  5. 5 Hume
  6. 19 Charles
  7. 7 Galbraith
  8. 3 Devenny
  9. 16 Kelly
  10. 14 Price
  11. 10 Donley

Coach: Michael O'Neill Last match: vs Georgia, 0-0 · UEFA Nations League B · 5 Oct

Ukraine 4-2-3-1

  1. 12 Trubin
  2. 2 Krupskyi
  3. 13 Zabarnyi
  4. 3 Sarapiy
  5. 4 Mykhavko
  6. 18 Ocheretko
  7. 19 Nazaryna
  8. 8 Sudakov
  9. 22 Krasnopir
  10. 21 Veleten
  11. 10 Ponomarenko

Coach: Andrea Maldera Last match: vs Hungary, 1-2 · UEFA Nations League B · 5 Oct

Our model's guess: the XIs of each club's recent matches, those of the same competition counting most, without the injured and suspended. On past matches it named 8.4 of the 11 starters on average. The official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Northern Ireland

  • DF Daniel BallardInjured · Early November 2026 (date passed)
  • DF Eoin ToalInjured · About 1-2 weeks

Ukraine

  • FW Oleksandr ZubkovInjured · Late December 2026
  • FW Viktor TsigankovInjured · Late November 2026

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Northern Ireland

Low impact
Missing attack share 1.0%
Missing minutes share 3.0%
2 players out

Ukraine

Moderate impact
Missing attack share 13.0%
Missing minutes share 9.0%
2 players out 1 regular starter out
Key absences:
  • FW Viktor Tsigankov 7% attack · 5% mins
  • FW Oleksandr Zubkov 6% attack · 3% mins

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 8 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Northern Ireland Ukraine
Box & Territory Pressure 34 39
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 60 39
Finishing Efficiency 40 49
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 87 52
Underlying Play Power 52 28
Northern Ireland Balanced (results match underlying play)
Ukraine Balanced (results match underlying play)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 8 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Northern Ireland

When scoring first 88% won · 100% unbeaten (8 matches)
When conceding first 0% points rescued · 0% won (4 matches)
1st Half: 50% 2nd Half: 50%
First 15': 15% Last 15' (76-90'): 20%

Ukraine

When scoring first 71% won · 100% unbeaten (7 matches)
When conceding first 14% points rescued · 14% won (7 matches)
1st Half: 42% 2nd Half: 58%
First 15': 21% Last 15' (76-90'): 37%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Northern Ireland

  1. 1. MF Isaac Price 1G · 0A
    Team attack 18.0% Team shots 25.0%
  2. 2. MF Jamie Donley 1G · 0A
    Team attack 12.0% Team shots 14.0%
  3. 3. MF Shea Charles 1G · 0A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 8.0%

Ukraine

  1. 1. FW Oleksiy Hutsuliak 2G · 2A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 4.0%
  2. 2. MF Ruslan Malinovsky 1G · 1A
    Team attack 9.0% Team shots 8.0%
  3. 3. FW Roman Yaremchuk 1G · 0A
    Team attack 6.0% Team shots 4.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Northern Ireland Ukraine
Over 1.5 goals 4/10 7/10
Over 2.5 goals 2/10 5/10
Over 3.5 goals 1/10 2/10
Both teams scored 2/10 3/10
Clean sheet 6/10 5/10
Failed to score 4/10 3/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 0.8 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.3

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Northern Ireland

  • D 0-0 vs Georgia (H) UEFA Nations League · 5 Oct
  • W 3-0 vs Ukraine (N) UEFA Nations League · 2 Oct
  • D 0-0 vs Hungary (H) UEFA Nations League · 28 Sep
  • W 1-0 at Georgia (A) UEFA Nations League · 25 Sep
  • L 1-3 at France (A) Friendlies · 8 Jun

Ukraine

  • L 1-2 vs Hungary (N) UEFA Nations League · 5 Oct
  • L 0-3 vs Northern Ireland (N) UEFA Nations League · 2 Oct
  • D 0-0 at Georgia (A) UEFA Nations League · 28 Sep
  • W 1-0 at Hungary (A) UEFA Nations League · 25 Sep
  • W 2-0 at Poland (A) Friendlies · 31 May

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Northern Ireland

Ukraine

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Northern Ireland

Player G A
Ciaron Brown 2 0
Isaac Price 1 0
Shea Charles 1 0

Ukraine

Player G A
Danylo Sikan 1 0
Roman Yaremchuk 1 0

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Northern Ireland Ukraine
  • 3.2 Corners won 3.5
  • 5.5 Corners conceded 3.2
  • 2.0 Yellow cards 3.0
  • 2.5 Opponents' yellow cards 2.2

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 3.7 corners, 2.0 yellow cards.

Referee: François Letexier, 4.3 yellow cards per match over the last 19 matches.

Attack and defence ratings

Northern IrelandUkraine
Attack 40 68
Defence 77 55

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1814Elo #40 Elo rating 1919Elo #23

Head-to-head

2Northern Ireland wins
0draws
0Ukraine wins

2 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 2 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League Ukraine 0-3 Northern Ireland
  • 16 Jun 2016 · EURO Ukraine 0-2 Northern Ireland

Table

League B - Group 2

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Northern Ireland 4 220 4:0 +4 8
2 Hungary 4 211 3:2 +1 7
3 Ukraine 4 112 2:5 -3 4
4 Georgia 4 022 0:2 -2 2

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

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Times are UTC.