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UEFA Nations League · League B, Matchday 5

Sweden vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Sweden crest Sweden
vs
Bosnia and Herzegovina crest Bosnia and Herzegovina
Strawberry Arena, Solna

Our picks

  • Result Sweden win
    Model probability 62% 25% 12%
  • Double chance Sweden or draw (1X)
    Model probability 88% 75% 38%
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.5
    Model probability
  • More corners Sweden
    Model probability
  • Yellow cards Around the league average(league 4.0)
    Model probability Over 3.5 Over 4.5 Over 5.5
  • Corners Above the league average(league 7.3)
    Model probability Over 8.5 Over 9.5 Over 10.5

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 2‑0
  2. #2 1‑0
  3. #3 1‑1

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Strong support
  • Recent goal difference balance Moderate support

See exactly how confident our model is

Both teams to score, over/under 2.5 goals, cards and corners: these probabilities are for members until the match is over.

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Why this pick?

Our model leans firmly towards Sweden in Solna, and the main reason is the strength gap: Sweden stand above Bosnia and Herzegovina on our long-run, xG-based strength rating, and their attacking rating is far higher than the visitors'. Bosnia's defensive record is tidy — they concede few big chances and have lost only once in five — and the reverse fixture in October finished 1‑1, so this is no mismatch. What tilts it is Sweden's edge in big chances created, clearly above the league average, and the pull of playing at home. A clear call.

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League B, Matchday 5
Kick-off
Venue
Strawberry Arena, Solna
Referee
Simone Sozza (2.2 yellow cards per match over the last 5 matches)
Since last match
Sweden: 40 days (UEFA Nations League) Bosnia and Herzegovina: 40 days (UEFA Nations League)
Next match
Sweden: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Poland Bosnia and Herzegovina: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Romania

Predicted line-ups

Sweden 4-4-2

  1. 12 Johansson
  2. 2 Beijmo
  3. 4 Smith
  4. 3 Lindelöf
  5. 5 Gudmundsson
  6. 21 Bernhardsson
  7. 7 Bergvall
  8. 16 Karlström
  9. 19 Nanasi
  10. 22 Zeneli
  11. 17 Gyökeres

Coach: Graham Potter Last match: at Romania, 1-0 · UEFA Nations League B · 5 Oct

Bosnia and Herzegovina 4-4-2

  1. 22 Zlomislić
  2. 7 Smajlović
  3. 18 Katić
  4. 21 Radeljić
  5. 5 Kolašinac
  6. 15 Memić
  7. 8 Gigović
  8. 13 Bašić
  9. 16 Mahmić
  10. 10 Demirović
  11. 23 Tabaković

Coach: Sergej Barbarez Last match: vs Poland, 1-0 · UEFA Nations League B · 5 Oct

Our model's guess: the XIs of each club's recent matches, those of the same competition counting most, without the injured and suspended. On past matches it named 8.4 of the 11 starters on average. The official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Sweden

No absences reported.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

  • DF Tarik MuharemovićSuspended · Mid November 2026
  • DF Dennis HadzikadunicInjured · About 1-2 weeks

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Sweden

Low impact

Full squad available — no listed absences

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Moderate impact
Missing attack share 7.0%
Missing minutes share 8.0%
2 players out 1 regular starter out
Key absences:
  • DF Tarik Muharemović 5% attack · 7% mins

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 8 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Sweden Bosnia and Herzegovina
Box & Territory Pressure 42 28
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 56 41
Finishing Efficiency 87 84
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 61 25
Underlying Play Power 53 38
Sweden Balanced (results match underlying play)
Bosnia and Herzegovina Results above play quality (running hot)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 8 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Sweden

When scoring first 86% won · 100% unbeaten (7 matches)
When conceding first 25% points rescued · 0% won (8 matches)
1st Half: 45% 2nd Half: 55%
First 15': 18% Last 15' (76-90'): 18%

Bosnia and Herzegovina

When scoring first 50% won · 100% unbeaten (6 matches)
When conceding first 57% points rescued · 14% won (7 matches)
1st Half: 45% 2nd Half: 55%
First 15': 15% Last 15' (76-90'): 40%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Sweden

  1. 1. FW Viktor Gyökeres 5G · 2A
    Team attack 25.0% Team shots 25.0%
  2. 2. FW Alexander Isak 2G · 3A
    Team attack 13.0% Team shots 12.0%
  3. 3. MF Yasin Ayari 3G · 1A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 11.0%

Bosnia and Herzegovina

  1. 1. MF Ivan Bašić 1G · 2A
    Team attack 15.0% Team shots 12.0%
  2. 2. FW Kerim Alajbegović 2G · 0A
    Team attack 13.0% Team shots 14.0%
  3. 3. MF Ermin Mahmić 3G · 0A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 14.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Sweden Bosnia and Herzegovina
Over 1.5 goals 9/10 7/10
Over 2.5 goals 7/10 3/10
Over 3.5 goals 5/10 3/10
Both teams scored 8/10 6/10
Clean sheet 1/10 3/10
Failed to score 1/10 3/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 1.7 / 1.8 1.2 / 1.2

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Sweden

  • W 1-0 at Romania (A) UEFA Nations League · 5 Oct
  • D 1-1 at Bosnia and Herzegovina (A) UEFA Nations League · 2 Oct
  • W 3-1 vs Poland (H) UEFA Nations League · 28 Sep
  • W 2-1 vs Romania (H) UEFA Nations League · 25 Sep
  • L 0-3 vs France (N) World Cup · 30 Jun

Bosnia and Herzegovina

  • W 1-0 vs Poland (H) UEFA Nations League · 5 Oct
  • D 1-1 vs Sweden (H) UEFA Nations League · 2 Oct
  • W 4-2 at Romania (A) UEFA Nations League · 28 Sep
  • D 0-0 at Poland (A) UEFA Nations League · 25 Sep
  • L 0-2 at USA (A) World Cup · 2 Jul

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Sweden

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Sweden

Player G A
Viktor Gyökeres 4 0
Yasin Ayari 1 1
Alexander Isak 1 0
Benjamin Nygren 1 0

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Player G A
Ivan Bašić (1 pen) 1 1
Armin Gigović 1 0
Ermin Mahmić 1 0
Haris Tabaković 1 0
Kerim Alajbegović 1 0

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Sweden Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • 2.8 Corners won 3.0
  • 3.2 Corners conceded 3.8
  • 0.8 Yellow cards 2.5
  • 3.0 Opponents' yellow cards 1.5

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 3.7 corners, 2.0 yellow cards.

Referee: Simone Sozza, 2.2 yellow cards per match over the last 5 matches.

Attack and defence ratings

SwedenBosnia and Herzegovina
Attack 79 42
Defence 43 45

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1903Elo #25 Elo rating 1823Elo #37

Head-to-head

0Sweden wins
1draw
0Bosnia and Herzegovina wins

1 meeting since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 2 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League Bosnia and Herzegovina 1-1 Sweden

Table

League B - Group 4

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Sweden 4 310 7:3 +4 10
2 Bosnia and Herzegovina 4 220 6:3 +3 8
3 Poland 4 112 7:4 +3 4
4 Romania 4 004 3:13 -10 0

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

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Times are UTC.