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UEFA Nations League · League B, Matchday 5

Kosovo vs Israel Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Kosovo crest Kosovo
vs
Israel crest Israel
Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri, Prishtinë (Pristina)

Our picks

  • Result Kosovo win
    Model probability 51% 28% 20%
  • Double chance Kosovo or draw (1X)
    Model probability 80% 72% 49%
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.5
    Model probability
  • More corners Kosovo
    Model probability
  • Yellow cards Around the league average(league 4.0)
    Model probability Over 3.5 Over 4.5 Over 5.5
  • Corners Above the league average(league 7.3)
    Model probability Over 8.5 Over 9.5 Over 10.5

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 2‑1
  2. #2 1‑1
  3. #3 1‑0

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Low support
  • Recent goal difference balance Low support
  • Israel: Recent shot, box and corner dominance Low support

See exactly how confident our model is

Both teams to score, over/under 2.5 goals, cards and corners: these probabilities are for members until the match is over.

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Why this pick?

Our model's pick is a Kosovo win, and the main reason is the venue: playing at home counts for a good deal, and our long-run strength rating also places Kosovo above Israel. The strongest argument the other way is that Israel keep the ball better than most sides in the competition and create more big chances than the norm, and the most recent meeting between the two finished goalless. Kosovo's defending answers that, though: across their last five matches they have conceded clearly fewer big chances than the typical team, and our defensive rating puts them well above Israel. The call is moderate rather than clear-cut.

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League B, Matchday 5
Kick-off
Venue
Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri, Prishtinë (Pristina)
Referee
Ivan Kružliak (3.8 yellow cards per match over the last 13 matches)
Since last match
Kosovo: 40 days (UEFA Nations League) Israel: 40 days (UEFA Nations League)
Next match
Kosovo: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Ireland Israel: 3 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Austria

Predicted line-ups

Kosovo 3-4-2-1

  1. 16 Saipi
  2. 21 Hajdari
  3. 4 Krasniqi
  4. 2 Raçi
  5. 15 Vojvoda
  6. 23 Avdullahu
  7. 20 Hodža
  8. 13 Gallapeni
  9. 10 Zhegrova
  10. 14 Zabërgja
  11. 18 Muriqi

Coach: Franco Foda Last match: vs Austria, 1-1 · UEFA Nations League B · 4 Oct

Israel 5-4-1

  1. 23 Tzur
  2. 17 Feingold
  3. 5 Nachmias
  4. 13 Stoinov
  5. 20 Abada
  6. 3 Revivo
  7. 8 Peretz
  8. 15 Peretz
  9. 21 Azoulay
  10. 11 Gloukh
  11. 19 Turgeman

Coach: Ran Ben Shimon Last match: at Ireland, 1-1 · UEFA Nations League B · 4 Oct

Our model's guess: the XIs of each club's recent matches, those of the same competition counting most, without the injured and suspended. On past matches it named 8.4 of the 11 starters on average. The official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Kosovo

  • DF Lumbardh DellovaInjured · Doubtful

Israel

No absences reported.

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Kosovo

Moderate impact
Missing attack share 3.0%
Missing minutes share 8.0%
1 player out 1 regular starter out
Key absences:
  • DF Lumbardh Dellova 3% attack · 8% mins

Israel

Low impact

Full squad available — no listed absences

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 8 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Kosovo Israel
Box & Territory Pressure 39 35
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 30 35
Finishing Efficiency 74 52
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 54 15
Underlying Play Power 56 28
Kosovo Balanced (results match underlying play)
Israel Playing above results (positive regression candidate)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 8 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Kosovo

When scoring first 86% won · 100% unbeaten (7 matches)
When conceding first 50% points rescued · 33% won (6 matches)
1st Half: 47% 2nd Half: 53%
First 15': 11% Last 15' (76-90'): 16%

Israel

When scoring first 75% won · 75% unbeaten (4 matches)
When conceding first 33% points rescued · 22% won (9 matches)
1st Half: 26% 2nd Half: 74%
First 15': 4% Last 15' (76-90'): 35%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Kosovo

  1. 1. FW Fisnik Asllani 3G · 0A
    Team attack 14.0% Team shots 14.0%
  2. 2. FW Vedat Muriqi 1G · 0A
    Team attack 13.0% Team shots 12.0%
  3. 3. MF Edon Zhegrova 1G · 1A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 10.0%

Israel

  1. 1. MF Dor Peretz 3G · 0A
    Team attack 15.0% Team shots 13.0%
  2. 2. MF Oscar Gloukh 0G · 0A
    Team attack 13.0% Team shots 14.0%
  3. 3. MF Eliel Peretz 1G · 0A
    Team attack 13.0% Team shots 13.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Kosovo Israel
Over 1.5 goals 7/10 8/10
Over 2.5 goals 4/10 7/10
Over 3.5 goals 2/10 5/10
Both teams scored 5/10 5/10
Clean sheet 4/10 2/10
Failed to score 2/10 4/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 1.4 / 1.1 1.3 / 2.3

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Kosovo

  • D 1-1 vs Austria (H) UEFA Nations League · 4 Oct
  • D 0-0 vs Israel (N) UEFA Nations League · 1 Oct
  • L 1-3 at Austria (A) UEFA Nations League · 27 Sep
  • W 1-0 vs Ireland (H) UEFA Nations League · 24 Sep
  • W 3-0 vs Andorra (H) Friendlies · 7 Jun

Israel

  • D 1-1 vs Ireland (N) UEFA Nations League · 4 Oct
  • D 0-0 vs Kosovo (N) UEFA Nations League · 1 Oct
  • L 0-3 vs Ireland (N) UEFA Nations League · 27 Sep
  • L 1-3 at Austria (A) UEFA Nations League · 24 Sep
  • W 1-0 at Albania (A) Friendlies · 3 Jun

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Kosovo

Israel

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Kosovo

Player G A
Edon Zhegrova (1 pen) 1 1
Fisnik Asllani 1 0
Vedat Muriqi 1 0

Israel

Player G A
Dor Peretz 1 0
Sayed Abu Farkhi 1 0

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Kosovo Israel
  • 2.5 Corners won 2.8
  • 3.5 Corners conceded 4.0
  • 0.8 Yellow cards 1.5
  • 1.0 Opponents' yellow cards 1.5

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 3.7 corners, 2.0 yellow cards.

Referee: Ivan Kružliak, 3.8 yellow cards per match over the last 13 matches.

Attack and defence ratings

KosovoIsrael
Attack 51 62
Defence 66 40

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1822Elo #39 Elo rating 1771Elo #47

Head-to-head

1Kosovo wins
2draws
0Israel wins

3 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 1 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League Israel 0-0 Kosovo
  • 12 Nov 2023 · EURO Qualification Kosovo 1-0 Israel
  • 25 Mar 2023 · EURO Qualification Israel 1-1 Kosovo

Table

League B - Group 3

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Austria 4 220 9:5 +4 8
2 Ireland 4 121 6:4 +2 5
3 Kosovo 4 121 3:4 -1 5
4 Israel 4 022 2:7 -5 2

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

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Times are UTC.