OptimaGoal
EN
UEFA Nations League · League C, Matchday 5

Moldova vs Kazakhstan Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Moldova crest Moldova
vs
Kazakhstan crest Kazakhstan
Stadionul Zimbru, Chișinău

Our picks

  • Result Kazakhstan win
    Model probability 32% 29% 39%
  • Double chance Moldova or Kazakhstan (12)
    Model probability 61% 71% 68%
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.5
    Model probability
  • More corners Moldova
    Model probability
  • Yellow cards Around the league average(league 3.8)
    Model probability Over 3.5 Over 4.5 Over 5.5
  • Corners Around the league average(league 9.8)
    Model probability Over 8.5 Over 9.5 Over 10.5

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 1‑2
  2. #2 1‑1
  3. #3 2‑1

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Moderate support
  • Recent form gap between the two clubs Moderate support

See exactly how confident our model is

Both teams to score, over/under 2.5 goals, cards and corners: these probabilities are for members until the match is over.

$6.99 / month · That is about $0.23 a day

Unlock probabilities

Why this pick?

Kazakhstan take the pick because our model's strength rating puts them clearly ahead of Moldova, and the edge shows at both ends of the pitch. The counterweight is the hosts' home advantage in Chișinău, where Moldova will have the crowd behind them. It holds because form leans the same way: Moldova were beaten heavily at home last time out and had drawn at home earlier in the run, while over their last five they concede shots and big chances above the league average and create clearly fewer big chances than most. The call is narrow, though, and a home side with something to prove can keep it close.

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League C, Matchday 5
Kick-off
Venue
Stadionul Zimbru, Chișinău
Referee
Andrea Colombo
Since last match
Moldova: 37 days (UEFA Nations League) Kazakhstan: 38 days (UEFA Nations League)
Next match
Moldova: 2 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Faroe Islands Kazakhstan: 2 days (UEFA Nations League) later · Slovakia

Predicted line-ups

Moldova 5-3-2

  1. 12 Celeadnic
  2. 4 Baboglo
  3. 18 Iovu
  4. 6 Gherasimencov
  5. 21 Revenco
  6. 2 Reabciuk
  7. 14 Fratea
  8. 22 Raţă
  9. 9 Perciun
  10. 20 Cleșcenco
  11. 15 Popescu

Coach: Lilian Popescu Last match: vs Slovakia, 0-4 · UEFA Nations League C · 6 Oct

Kazakhstan 3-4-2-1

  1. 12 Anarbekov
  2. 6 Kassym
  3. 23 Erlanov
  4. 3 Alip
  5. 14 Zhagorov
  6. 5 Kuat
  7. 7 Zhukov
  8. 13 Basmanov
  9. 10 Samorodov
  10. 9 Islamkhan
  11. 19 Karimov

Coach: John van't Schip Last match: vs Faroe Islands, 2-2 · UEFA Nations League C · 6 Oct

Our model's guess: the XIs of each club's recent matches, those of the same competition counting most, without the injured and suspended. On past matches it named 8.4 of the 11 starters on average. The official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Moldova

No absences reported.

Kazakhstan

  • DF Sergiy MalyiSuspended · Mid November 2026
  • FW Dastan SatpaevInjured · Late November 2026

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Moldova

Low impact

Full squad available — no listed absences

Kazakhstan

Low impact
Missing attack share 6.0%
Missing minutes share 3.0%
2 players out
Key absences:
  • DF Sergiy Malyi 3% attack · 3% mins
  • FW Dastan Satpaev 4% attack · 1% mins

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 6 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Moldova Kazakhstan
Box & Territory Pressure 31 35
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 36 40
Finishing Efficiency 19 54
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 15 61
Underlying Play Power 19 26
Moldova Playing above results (positive regression candidate)
Kazakhstan Results above play quality (running hot)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 6 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Moldova

When scoring first 100% won · 100% unbeaten (3 matches)
When conceding first 17% points rescued · 0% won (12 matches)
1st Half: 27% 2nd Half: 73%
First 15': 0% Last 15' (76-90'): 27%

Kazakhstan

When scoring first 50% won · 100% unbeaten (4 matches)
When conceding first 18% points rescued · 0% won (11 matches)
1st Half: 57% 2nd Half: 43%
First 15': 7% Last 15' (76-90'): 14%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Moldova

  1. 1. FW Petru Popescu 1G · 0A
    Team attack 16.0% Team shots 21.0%
  2. 2. MF Sergiu Perciun 1G · 1A
    Team attack 14.0% Team shots 13.0%
  3. 3. FW Nicky Cleșcenco 1G · 0A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 10.0%

Kazakhstan

  1. 1. MF Bauyrzhan Islamkhan 0G · 2A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 5.0%
  2. 2. DF Nuraly Alip 2G · 0A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 9.0%
  3. 3. FW Galymzhan Kenzhebek 0G · 0A
    Team attack 8.0% Team shots 16.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Moldova Kazakhstan
Over 1.5 goals 10/10 9/10
Over 2.5 goals 5/10 4/10
Over 3.5 goals 4/10 2/10
Both teams scored 6/10 8/10
Clean sheet 0/10 2/10
Failed to score 4/10 0/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 0.9 / 2.2 1.2 / 1.3

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Moldova

  • L 0-4 vs Slovakia (H) UEFA Nations League · 6 Oct
  • W 2-1 at Kazakhstan (A) UEFA Nations League · 2 Oct
  • D 1-1 vs Faroe Islands (H) UEFA Nations League · 29 Sep
  • L 0-2 at Slovakia (A) UEFA Nations League · 26 Sep
  • D 1-1 at Armenia (A) Friendlies · 9 Jun

Kazakhstan

  • D 2-2 vs Faroe Islands (H) UEFA Nations League · 6 Oct
  • L 1-2 vs Moldova (H) UEFA Nations League · 2 Oct
  • L 1-2 at Slovakia (A) UEFA Nations League · 29 Sep
  • D 1-1 at Faroe Islands (A) UEFA Nations League · 26 Sep
  • L 1-3 at Hungary (A) Friendlies · 9 Jun

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Moldova

Kazakhstan

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Moldova

Player G A
Sergiu Perciun 1 1
Nicky Cleșcenco 1 0
Petru Popescu 1 0

Kazakhstan

Player G A
Nuraly Alip 2 0
Ramazan Karimov 1 0
Sergiy Malyi 1 0
Temirlan Erlanov 1 0

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Moldova Kazakhstan
  • 5.5 Corners won 5.5
  • 5.8 Corners conceded 6.8
  • 0.8 Yellow cards 1.8
  • 1.2 Opponents' yellow cards 0.8

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 5.0 corners, 2.0 yellow cards.

Referee: Andrea Colombo, 3 earlier matches in our data.

Attack and defence ratings

MoldovaKazakhstan
Attack 17 26
Defence 6 23

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1480Elo #108 Elo rating 1592Elo #81

Head-to-head

2Moldova wins
0draws
1Kazakhstan wins

3 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 2 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League Kazakhstan 1-2 Moldova
  • 29 Mar 2022 · UEFA Nations League Kazakhstan 0-1 Moldova
  • 24 Mar 2022 · UEFA Nations League Moldova 1-2 Kazakhstan

Table

League C - Group 3

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Slovakia 4 310 9:2 +7 10
2 Faroe Islands 4 040 5:5 0 4
3 Moldova 4 112 3:8 -5 4
4 Kazakhstan 4 022 5:7 -2 2

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

More UEFA Nations League matches

All fixtures

Times are UTC.