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UEFA Nations League · League A, Matchday 5

Czechia vs Spain Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Czechia crest Czechia
0-2Full time
Spain crest Spain
epet ARENA, Praha

Our picks

  • Result Spain win
    Model probability 8% 11% 81%
  • Double chance Spain or draw (X2)
    Model probability 19% 89% 92%
  • Both teams to score No
    Model probability 62%
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Under 2.5
    Model probability 53%
  • More corners Spain
    Model probability 13% 8% 79%
  • Yellow cards Below the league average(league 3.8)
    Model probability Over 3.5 39%Over 4.5 21%Over 5.5 10%
  • Corners Around the league average(league 8.9)
    Model probability Over 8.5 53%Over 9.5 41%Over 10.5 30%

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 0‑2 Matched
  2. #2 0‑1
  3. #3 0‑3

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Strong support
  • Recent goal difference balance Strong support
  • Recent form gap between the two clubs Moderate support
All probabilities

Result after 90 minutes

Czechia 8%
Draw 11%
Spain 81% Our pick

Double chance

1X · Czechia or draw19%

12 · Czechia or Spain89%

X2 · Spain or draw92%

Both teams to score

Yes38%

No62%

Goals over/under 2.5

Over 2.547%

Under 2.553%

Yellow cards

Expected 3.2

Over 3.5 / under39% · 61%

Over 4.5 / under21% · 79%

Over 5.5 / under10% · 90%

Corners

Expected Czechia 3.0 – 6.0 Spain

Over 8.5 / under53% · 47%

Over 9.5 / under41% · 59%

Over 10.5 / under30% · 70%

More corners

Czechia13%

Level8%

Spain79%

Why this pick?

Our model goes with Spain, and it starts with the strength ratings, where Spain sit at the top of the competition and Czechia well below; the goal model reads the matchup the same way. Form agrees: Spain have won all four Nations League matches, Czechia have lost five in a row. The point on the other side is the setting, with Czechia at home at the epet ARENA, where making it awkward is their best route in. That does not close the gap, since Czechia create far less than the league average and concede more, while Spain give up very little. The call is a clear one.

Both teams to score: Our model says no to both teams scoring. Czechia's recent play has produced little going forward, well below the league average for shots and clear chances, and Spain concede very few, so one goal may settle it.

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League A, Matchday 5
Kick-off
Venue
epet ARENA, Praha
Referee
Nikola Dabanović (2.8 yellow cards per match over the last 10 matches)
Next match
Czechia: Croatia Spain: England

Starting line-ups

Czechia 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Kovár
  2. 5 Coufal
  3. 6 Zima
  4. 7 Krejcí
  5. 14 Jurásek
  6. 21 Král
  7. 12 Červ
  8. 13 Ambros
  9. 10 Hložek
  10. 17 Provod
  11. 9 Naderi

Coach: Santi Denia

Spain 4-2-3-1

  1. 23 Simón
  2. 12 Porro
  3. 5 Cubarsí
  4. 4 Huijsen
  5. 22 Cucurella
  6. 18 Zubimendi
  7. 8 Ruiz
  8. 11 Pino
  9. 9 López
  10. 15 Baena
  11. 7 Torres

Coach: Luis de la Fuente

Injuries and suspensions

Czechia

  • MF Michal SadílekSuspended · Mid November 2026

Spain

  • FW Lamine YamalInjured · About 1-2 weeks
  • FW Mikel OyarzabalInjured · Doubtful

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

What this page showed before the match: our reasons, form, ratings and records as they were then.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Czechia Spain
Box & Territory Pressure 24 61
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 50 39
Finishing Efficiency 49 79
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 34 78
Underlying Play Power 20 83
Czechia Playing above results (positive regression candidate)
Spain Balanced (results match underlying play)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 10 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Czechia

When scoring first 50% won · 83% unbeaten (6 matches)
When conceding first 12% points rescued · 0% won (8 matches)
1st Half: 53% 2nd Half: 47%
First 15': 21% Last 15' (76-90'): 16%

Spain

When scoring first 91% won · 100% unbeaten (11 matches)
When conceding first No matches in sample
1st Half: 52% 2nd Half: 48%
First 15': 19% Last 15' (76-90'): 19%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Czechia

  1. 1. FW Adam Hložek 0G · 2A
    Team attack 12.0% Team shots 14.0%
  2. 2. DF Ladislav Krejcí 2G · 0A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 9.0%
  3. 3. DF Vladimír Coufal 0G · 1A
    Team attack 8.0% Team shots 2.0%

Spain

  1. 1. MF Álex Baena 2G · 3A
    Team attack 10.0% Team shots 11.0%
  2. 2. MF Mikel Merino 5G · 1A
    Team attack 8.0% Team shots 4.0%
  3. 3. FW Ferrán Torres 1G · 1A
    Team attack 6.0% Team shots 7.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Czechia Spain
Over 1.5 goals 10/10 7/10
Over 2.5 goals 7/10 6/10
Over 3.5 goals 2/10 3/10
Both teams scored 7/10 5/10
Clean sheet 0/10 5/10
Failed to score 3/10 1/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 1.0 / 1.9 2.1 / 0.6

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Czechia

  • L 0-3 at England (A) UEFA Nations League · 6 Oct
  • L 1-3 at Spain (A) UEFA Nations League · 3 Oct
  • L 0-2 vs England (H) UEFA Nations League · 29 Sep
  • L 1-2 vs Croatia (H) UEFA Nations League · 26 Sep
  • L 0-3 vs Mexico (H) World Cup · 25 Jun

Spain

  • W 2-1 at Croatia (A) UEFA Nations League · 6 Oct
  • W 3-1 vs Czechia (H) UEFA Nations League · 3 Oct
  • W 4-1 vs Croatia (H) UEFA Nations League · 29 Sep
  • W 3-2 at England (A) UEFA Nations League · 26 Sep
  • D 0-0 vs Argentina (N) World Cup · 19 Jul

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Czechia

Spain

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Czechia

Player G A
Adam Karabec 1 0
Jirí Sláma 1 0

Spain

Player G A
Lamine Yamal 4 1
Mikel Merino 3 1
Álex Baena 1 2
Marc Pubill 1 0
Mikel Oyarzabal 1 0

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Czechia Spain
  • 1.0 Corners won 5.0
  • 5.8 Corners conceded 2.8
  • 2.0 Yellow cards 1.0
  • 1.0 Opponents' yellow cards 3.0

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 4.4 corners, 1.8 yellow cards.

Referee: Nikola Dabanović, 2.8 yellow cards per match over the last 10 matches.

Attack and defence ratings

CzechiaSpain
Attack 58 100
Defence 47 100

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

Head-to-head

0Czechia wins
1draw
5Spain wins

6 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 3 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League Spain 3-1 Czechia
  • 12 Jun 2022 · UEFA Nations League Spain 2-0 Czechia
  • 5 Jun 2022 · UEFA Nations League Czechia 2-2 Spain
  • 13 Jun 2016 · EURO Spain 1-0 Czechia
  • 7 Oct 2011 · EURO Qualification Czechia 0-2 Spain

Other UEFA Nations League results that day

All results

Times are UTC.