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UEFA Nations League · League C, Matchday 5

Armenia vs Cyprus Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Armenia crest Armenia
1-1Full time
Cyprus crest Cyprus
Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht, Yerevan

Our picks

  • Result Armenia win
    Model probability 53% 22% 25%
  • Double chance Armenia or Cyprus (12)
    Model probability 75% 78% 47%
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Under 2.5
    Model probability 52%
  • More corners Armenia
    Model probability 62% 12% 26%
  • Yellow cards Around the league average(league 3.8)
    Model probability Over 3.5 56%Over 4.5 37%Over 5.5 21%
  • Corners Below the league average(league 9.8)
    Model probability Over 8.5 46%Over 9.5 34%Over 10.5 24%

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 1‑0
  2. #2 1‑1 Matched
  3. #3 2‑1

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Strong support
  • Recent goal difference balance Moderate counter
  • Travel distance and venue altitude factor Low support
All probabilities

Result after 90 minutes

Armenia 53% Our pick
Draw 22%
Cyprus 25%

Double chance

1X · Armenia or draw75%

12 · Armenia or Cyprus78%

X2 · Cyprus or draw47%

Both teams to score

Yes56%

No44%

Goals over/under 2.5

Over 2.548%

Under 2.552%

Yellow cards

Expected 4.0

Over 3.5 / under56% · 44%

Over 4.5 / under37% · 63%

Over 5.5 / under21% · 79%

Corners

Expected Armenia 4.9 – 3.5 Cyprus

Over 8.5 / under46% · 54%

Over 9.5 / under34% · 66%

Over 10.5 / under24% · 76%

More corners

Armenia62%

Level12%

Cyprus26%

Why this pick?

Armenia are our pick, mainly because our model's strength rating puts them slightly ahead of Cyprus. The counterweight is the goal model's reading of the matchup, which sees a tighter game than those ratings suggest, and Cyprus did win the one recent meeting between the two 2‑0. What carries the call is the setting: Armenia play at home in Yerevan, and the altitude of the ground and Cyprus's journey add a small extra edge. Armenia do concede more big chances than the league average, so the visitors will get their moments, yet the overall picture still tilts clearly to the hosts. The call is a moderate one.

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League C, Matchday 5
Kick-off
Venue
Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht, Yerevan
Referee
Orel Grinfeeld (3.6 yellow cards per match over the last 8 matches)
Next match
Armenia: Latvia Cyprus: Montenegro

Starting line-ups

Armenia 4-2-3-1

  1. 16 Mishiev
  2. 2 Bandikyan
  3. 4 Arutiunian
  4. 5 Mkrtchyan
  5. 21 Tiknizyan
  6. 8 Hovhannisyan
  7. 6 Iwu
  8. 9 Serobyan
  9. 22 Grigoryan
  10. 10 Shaghoyan
  11. 18 Gharibyan

Coach: Yegishe Melikyan

Cyprus 4-4-2

  1. 1 Fabiano
  2. 15 Konomis
  3. 4 Kyprianou
  4. 19 Laifis
  5. 14 Malekkides
  6. 10 Loizou
  7. 16 Andreou
  8. 20 Kastanos
  9. 23 Edwards
  10. 11 Pikis
  11. 9 Pittas

Coach: Apostolos Mantzios

Injuries and suspensions

Armenia

No absences reported.

Cyprus

  • DF Kostas PileasSuspended · Mid November 2026

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

What this page showed before the match: our reasons, form, ratings and records as they were then.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Armenia Cyprus
Box & Territory Pressure 29 49
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 30 58
Finishing Efficiency 50 67
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 15 60
Underlying Play Power 21 47
Armenia Playing above results (positive regression candidate)
Cyprus Results above play quality (running hot)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 7 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Armenia

When scoring first 100% won · 100% unbeaten (3 matches)
When conceding first 0% points rescued · 0% won (11 matches)
1st Half: 40% 2nd Half: 60%
First 15': 0% Last 15' (76-90'): 0%

Cyprus

When scoring first 80% won · 80% unbeaten (5 matches)
When conceding first 33% points rescued · 11% won (9 matches)
1st Half: 37% 2nd Half: 63%
First 15': 5% Last 15' (76-90'): 26%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Armenia

  1. 1. FW Artur Serobyan 1G · 0A
    Team attack 9.0% Team shots 9.0%
  2. 2. DF Georgiy Arutiunian 1G · 1A
    Team attack 9.0% Team shots 4.0%
  3. 3. DF Nair Tiknizyan 0G · 0A
    Team attack 7.0% Team shots 4.0%

Cyprus

  1. 1. FW Marcus Edwards 2G · 0A
    Team attack 16.0% Team shots 21.0%
  2. 2. FW Loizos Loizou 1G · 0A
    Team attack 14.0% Team shots 14.0%
  3. 3. FW Ioannis Pittas 0G · 1A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 18.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Armenia Cyprus
Over 1.5 goals 7/10 8/10
Over 2.5 goals 3/10 4/10
Over 3.5 goals 2/10 2/10
Both teams scored 5/10 4/10
Clean sheet 2/10 4/10
Failed to score 4/10 3/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 0.8 / 2.0 1.5 / 0.9

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Armenia

  • D 0-0 at Montenegro (A) UEFA Nations League · 5 Oct
  • L 0-2 at Cyprus (A) UEFA Nations League · 2 Oct
  • L 2-3 vs Montenegro (H) UEFA Nations League · 28 Sep
  • W 2-0 vs Latvia (H) UEFA Nations League · 25 Sep
  • D 1-1 vs Moldova (H) Friendlies · 9 Jun

Cyprus

  • W 2-1 vs Latvia (H) UEFA Nations League · 5 Oct
  • W 2-0 vs Armenia (H) UEFA Nations League · 2 Oct
  • D 0-0 at Latvia (A) UEFA Nations League · 28 Sep
  • L 1-2 at Montenegro (A) UEFA Nations League · 25 Sep
  • W 2-0 at Liechtenstein (A) Friendlies · 7 Jun

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Armenia

Cyprus

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Armenia

Player G
Artur Gharibyan 1
Artur Serobyan 1
Eduard Spertsyan 1
Georgiy Arutiunian 1

Cyprus

Player G A
Marcus Edwards 2 0
Andronikos Kakoullis 1 0
Ioannis Kosti 1 0
Leonidas Konomis 1 0

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Armenia Cyprus
  • 6.2 Corners won 5.0
  • 2.8 Corners conceded 6.5
  • 1.8 Yellow cards 2.2
  • 0.8 Opponents' yellow cards 2.0

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 4.9 corners, 1.9 yellow cards.

Referee: Orel Grinfeeld, 3.6 yellow cards per match over the last 8 matches.

Attack and defence ratings

ArmeniaCyprus
Attack 25 23
Defence 13 17

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

Head-to-head

0Armenia wins
0draws
1Cyprus wins

1 meeting since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 2 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League Cyprus 2-0 Armenia

Other UEFA Nations League results that day

All results

Times are UTC.