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UEFA Nations League · League C, Matchday 5

San Marino vs Belarus Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

San Marino crest San Marino
0-2Full time
Belarus crest Belarus
Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle, Serravalle

Our picks

  • Result Belarus win
    Model probability 4% 8% 88%
  • Double chance Belarus or draw (X2)
    Model probability 12% 92% 96%
  • Both teams to score No
    Model probability 67%
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.5
    Model probability 66%
  • More corners Belarus
    Model probability 3% 4% 93%
  • Yellow cards Around the league average(league 3.8)
    Model probability Over 3.5 58%Over 4.5 38%Over 5.5 22%
  • Corners Below the league average(league 9.8)
    Model probability Over 8.5 47%Over 9.5 35%Over 10.5 25%

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 0‑3
  2. #2 0‑2 Matched
  3. #3 0‑4

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Strong support
  • Recent goal difference balance Strong support
  • Recent form gap between the two clubs Low support
All probabilities

Result after 90 minutes

San Marino 4%
Draw 8%
Belarus 88% Our pick

Double chance

1X · San Marino or draw12%

12 · San Marino or Belarus92%

X2 · Belarus or draw96%

Both teams to score

Yes33%

No67%

Goals over/under 2.5

Over 2.566%

Under 2.534%

Yellow cards

Expected 4.1

Over 3.5 / under58% · 42%

Over 4.5 / under38% · 62%

Over 5.5 / under22% · 78%

Corners

Expected San Marino 1.9 – 6.7 Belarus

Over 8.5 / under47% · 53%

Over 9.5 / under35% · 65%

Over 10.5 / under25% · 75%

More corners

San Marino3%

Level4%

Belarus93%

Why this pick?

Our model has Belarus winning in Serravalle, first because our strength rating puts them clearly the stronger side over the long run and the goal model reads the matchup the same way. San Marino's home advantage is the one argument on the other side, and it is a small one. Their last five matches leave them below the league average by some distance in possession, shots and big chances created, and they concede far more than most, while Belarus have won all three previous meetings without conceding. That is why the call is a clear one.

Both teams to score: Our model expects only one team to score here. San Marino's recent play shows a side creating very little, and the goal model reads the game as one-sided; Belarus's recent expected-goals numbers are a small note of caution, but not enough to change the call.

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League C, Matchday 5
Kick-off
Venue
Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle, Serravalle
Referee
Goga Kikacheishvili
Next match
San Marino: Finland Belarus: Albania

Starting line-ups

San Marino 4-3-1-2

  1. 1 Colombo
  2. 2 Benvenuti
  3. 15 Pasolini
  4. 4 Fabbri
  5. 3 Giocondi
  6. 18 Della Balda
  7. 8 Capicchioni
  8. 10 Zannoni
  9. 21 Lazzari
  10. 7 Capicchioni
  11. 9 Nanni

Coach: Roberto Cevoli

Belarus 4-2-3-1

  1. 21 Lapoukhov
  2. 5 Kalinin
  3. 20 Volkov
  4. 13 Gomanov
  5. 2 Pechenin
  6. 8 Selyava
  7. 15 Bocherov
  8. 22 Kontsevoy
  9. 9 Ebong
  10. 11 Simanenka
  11. 10 Gromyko

Coach: Viktor Goncharenko

Injuries and suspensions

San Marino

No absences reported.

Belarus

  • FW Artem ShumanskiySuspended · Mid November 2026

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

What this page showed before the match: our reasons, form, ratings and records as they were then.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

San Marino Belarus
Box & Territory Pressure 18 32
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 21 29
Finishing Efficiency 29 78
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 15 76
Underlying Play Power 15 34
San Marino Playing above results (positive regression candidate)
Belarus Results above play quality (running hot)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 6 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

San Marino

When scoring first No matches in sample
When conceding first 15% points rescued · 8% won (13 matches)
1st Half: 14% 2nd Half: 86%
First 15': 14% Last 15' (76-90'): 29%

Belarus

When scoring first 75% won · 100% unbeaten (4 matches)
When conceding first 25% points rescued · 0% won (8 matches)
1st Half: 8% 2nd Half: 92%
First 15': 8% Last 15' (76-90'): 25%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

San Marino

  1. 1. FW Nicola Nanni 0G · 0A
    Team attack 15.0% Team shots 15.0%
  2. 2. MF Lorenzo Capicchioni 0G · 1A
    Team attack 14.0% Team shots 24.0%
  3. 3. MF Lorenzo Lazzari 1G · 0A
    Team attack 13.0% Team shots 9.0%

Belarus

  1. 1. MF Valeri Gromyko 1G · 1A
    Team attack 13.0% Team shots 8.0%
  2. 2. DF Kiril Pechenin 0G · 3A
    Team attack 13.0% Team shots 8.0%
  3. 3. MF Max Ebong 1G · 0A
    Team attack 12.0% Team shots 17.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

San Marino Belarus
Over 1.5 goals 9/10 6/10
Over 2.5 goals 9/10 5/10
Over 3.5 goals 4/10 4/10
Both teams scored 5/10 4/10
Clean sheet 1/10 5/10
Failed to score 5/10 3/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 0.5 / 3.3 1.6 / 0.8

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

San Marino

  • L 1-2 at Albania (A) UEFA Nations League · 6 Oct
  • L 0-4 vs Belarus (N) UEFA Nations League · 3 Oct
  • L 0-3 vs Albania (H) UEFA Nations League · 29 Sep
  • L 0-7 vs Finland (H) UEFA Nations League · 26 Sep
  • L 1-2 at Azerbaijan (A) Friendlies · 9 Jun

Belarus

  • W 1-0 vs Finland (N) UEFA Nations League · 6 Oct
  • W 4-0 vs San Marino (N) UEFA Nations League · 3 Oct
  • D 0-0 at Finland (A) UEFA Nations League · 29 Sep
  • L 0-2 at Albania (A) UEFA Nations League · 26 Sep
  • D 2-2 vs Burkina Faso (N) Friendlies · 9 Jun

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

San Marino

Belarus

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

San Marino

Player G A
Lorenzo Lazzari 1 0

Belarus

Player G A
Artem Shumanskiy 2 1
Artem Kontsevoy 2 0
Max Ebong 1 0

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

San Marino Belarus
  • 2.5 Corners won 2.8
  • 6.5 Corners conceded 5.5
  • 2.8 Yellow cards 3.2
  • 1.5 Opponents' yellow cards 2.8

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 5.0 corners, 1.9 yellow cards.

Referee: Goga Kikacheishvili, 4 earlier matches in our data.

Attack and defence ratings

San MarinoBelarus
Attack 2 36
Defence 0 32

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

Head-to-head

0San Marino wins
0draws
3Belarus wins

3 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 3 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League Belarus 4-0 San Marino
  • 18 Nov 2018 · UEFA Nations League San Marino 0-2 Belarus
  • 8 Sep 2018 · UEFA Nations League Belarus 5-0 San Marino

Other UEFA Nations League results that day

All results

Times are UTC.