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UEFA Nations League · League C, Matchday 5

Albania vs Finland Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Albania crest Albania
2-0Full time
Finland crest Finland
Arena Kombëtare, Tiranë (Tirana)

Our picks

  • Result Albania win
    Model probability 46% 30% 24%
  • Double chance Albania or draw (1X)
    Model probability 76% 70% 54%
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Under 2.5
    Model probability 51%
  • More corners Finland
    Model probability 38% 13% 49%
  • Yellow cards Above the league average(league 3.8)
    Model probability Over 3.5 70%Over 4.5 51%Over 5.5 34%
  • Corners Below the league average(league 9.8)
    Model probability Over 8.5 44%Over 9.5 32%Over 10.5 22%

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 1‑0
  2. #2 1‑1
  3. #3 2‑1

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Moderate counter
  • Recent goal difference balance Moderate counter
All probabilities

Result after 90 minutes

Albania 46% Our pick
Draw 30%
Finland 24%

Double chance

1X · Albania or draw76%

12 · Albania or Finland70%

X2 · Finland or draw54%

Both teams to score

Yes50%

No50%

Goals over/under 2.5

Over 2.549%

Under 2.551%

Yellow cards

Expected 4.7

Over 3.5 / under70% · 30%

Over 4.5 / under51% · 49%

Over 5.5 / under34% · 66%

Corners

Expected Albania 3.9 – 4.4 Finland

Over 8.5 / under44% · 56%

Over 9.5 / under32% · 68%

Over 10.5 / under22% · 78%

More corners

Albania38%

Level13%

Finland49%

Why this pick?

Our model goes with Albania, mainly because this one is at home in Tirana, where home advantage counts for plenty. The counterpoint is that little separates the sides: our long-run strength rating has Albania only slightly ahead of Finland, our goal model reads a tight matchup, and Finland won the only recent meeting 2‑1. Albania's last five matches still point to a side in defensive control, conceding few shots and clearly fewer big chances than the league average while creating clearly more at the other end, a base a home side can build on. The call is moderate rather than clear.

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League C, Matchday 5
Kick-off
Venue
Arena Kombëtare, Tiranë (Tirana)
Referee
João Pinheiro
Next match
Albania: Belarus Finland: San Marino

Starting line-ups

Albania 3-4-3

  1. 1 Berisha
  2. 6 Djimsiti
  3. 18 Ismajli
  4. 3 Mitaj
  5. 4 Hysaj
  6. 20 Ramadani
  7. 8 Asllani
  8. 2 Pilios
  9. 10 Muçi
  10. 7 Manaj
  11. 14 Laçi

Coach: Rolando Maran

Finland 4-1-4-1

  1. 1 Hrádecky
  2. 3 Ståhl
  3. 5 Tenho
  4. 21 Koski
  5. 17 Mahuta
  6. 11 Markhiev
  7. 7 Antman
  8. 9 Jensen
  9. 10 Walta
  10. 18 Keskinen
  11. 19 Källman

Coach: Jacob Friis

Injuries and suspensions

Albania

No absences reported.

Finland

No absences reported.

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

What this page showed before the match: our reasons, form, ratings and records as they were then.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Albania Finland
Box & Territory Pressure 50 55
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 70 54
Finishing Efficiency 37 74
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 57 52
Underlying Play Power 77 69
Albania Playing above results (positive regression candidate)
Finland Balanced (results match underlying play)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 7 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Albania

When scoring first 70% won · 80% unbeaten (10 matches)
When conceding first 0% points rescued · 0% won (3 matches)
1st Half: 71% 2nd Half: 29%
First 15': 18% Last 15' (76-90'): 12%

Finland

When scoring first 75% won · 100% unbeaten (4 matches)
When conceding first 20% points rescued · 20% won (10 matches)
1st Half: 44% 2nd Half: 56%
First 15': 17% Last 15' (76-90'): 22%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Albania

  1. 1. MF Kristjan Asllani 4G · 1A
    Team attack 20.0% Team shots 12.0%
  2. 2. FW Rey Manaj 2G · 1A
    Team attack 15.0% Team shots 20.0%
  3. 3. FW Arbër Hoxha 1G · 0A
    Team attack 9.0% Team shots 10.0%

Finland

  1. 1. MF Leo Walta 4G · 1A
    Team attack 22.0% Team shots 20.0%
  2. 2. FW Joel Pohjanpalo 3G · 0A
    Team attack 18.0% Team shots 19.0%
  3. 3. MF Juho Lähteenmäki 0G · 1A
    Team attack 6.0% Team shots 0.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Albania Finland
Over 1.5 goals 6/10 7/10
Over 2.5 goals 4/10 5/10
Over 3.5 goals 0/10 3/10
Both teams scored 3/10 3/10
Clean sheet 3/10 3/10
Failed to score 4/10 5/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 1.0 / 1.0 1.3 / 1.4

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Albania

  • W 2-1 vs San Marino (H) UEFA Nations League · 6 Oct
  • L 1-2 at Finland (A) UEFA Nations League · 3 Oct
  • W 3-0 at San Marino (A) UEFA Nations League · 29 Sep
  • W 2-0 vs Belarus (H) UEFA Nations League · 26 Sep
  • L 0-1 vs Luxembourg (H) Friendlies · 6 Jun

Finland

  • L 0-1 vs Belarus (N) UEFA Nations League · 6 Oct
  • W 2-1 vs Albania (H) UEFA Nations League · 3 Oct
  • D 0-0 vs Belarus (H) UEFA Nations League · 29 Sep
  • W 7-0 at San Marino (A) UEFA Nations League · 26 Sep
  • L 1-2 at Hungary (A) Friendlies · 5 Jun

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Albania

Finland

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Albania

Player G A
Kristjan Asllani (2 pens) 3 1
Rey Manaj 2 1
Anis Mehmeti 1 0
Ernest Muçi 1 0
Myrto Uzuni 1 0

Finland

Player G A
Leo Walta 4 1
Joel Pohjanpalo (1 pen) 3 0
Adrian Svanbäck 1 2
Benjamin Källman 1 0

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Albania Finland
  • 6.8 Corners won 6.0
  • 3.8 Corners conceded 2.2
  • 2.0 Yellow cards 1.5
  • 2.5 Opponents' yellow cards 2.8

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 5.0 corners, 1.9 yellow cards.

Referee: João Pinheiro.

Attack and defence ratings

AlbaniaFinland
Attack 28 38
Defence 60 40

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

Head-to-head

0Albania wins
0draws
1Finland wins

1 meeting since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 3 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League Finland 2-1 Albania

Other UEFA Nations League results that day

All results

Times are UTC.