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UEFA Nations League · League C, Matchday 5

Montenegro vs Latvia Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Montenegro crest Montenegro
2-1Full time
Latvia crest Latvia
Stadion Pod Goricom, Podgorica

Our picks

  • Result Montenegro win
    Model probability 71% 19% 10%
  • Double chance Montenegro or draw (1X)
    Model probability 90% 81% 29%
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Under 2.5
    Model probability 53%
  • More corners Montenegro
    Model probability 83% 7% 10%
  • Yellow cards Above the league average(league 3.8)
    Model probability Over 3.5 62%Over 4.5 42%Over 5.5 26%
  • Corners Around the league average(league 9.8)
    Model probability Over 8.5 66%Over 9.5 54%Over 10.5 43%

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 2‑0
  2. #2 1‑0
  3. #3 3‑0

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Strong support
  • Recent goal difference balance Moderate support
All probabilities

Result after 90 minutes

Montenegro 71% Our pick
Draw 19%
Latvia 10%

Double chance

1X · Montenegro or draw90%

12 · Montenegro or Latvia81%

X2 · Latvia or draw29%

Both teams to score

Yes49%

No51%

Goals over/under 2.5

Over 2.547%

Under 2.553%

Yellow cards

Expected 4.3

Over 3.5 / under62% · 38%

Over 4.5 / under42% · 58%

Over 5.5 / under26% · 74%

Corners

Expected Montenegro 6.9 – 3.2 Latvia

Over 8.5 / under66% · 34%

Over 9.5 / under54% · 46%

Over 10.5 / under43% · 57%

More corners

Montenegro83%

Level7%

Latvia10%

Why this pick?

Montenegro are the call because our model rates them clearly the stronger of the two, and they have home advantage in Podgorica on top of it. Latvia arrive with little behind them: four defeats in five and low ratings at both ends. Nothing in the data works against the prediction, and neither do the head-to-head meetings, with two Montenegro wins and a draw in three since 2010. Over the last five matches Montenegro have created clearly more big chances than the league average, while Latvia concede more than most, the kind of mismatch a home side should turn into goals. The call is a clear one.

Match facts

Competition
UEFA Nations League, League C, Matchday 5
Kick-off
Venue
Stadion Pod Goricom, Podgorica
Referee
Jérôme Brisard (4.4 yellow cards per match over the last 5 matches)
Next match
Montenegro: Cyprus Latvia: Armenia

Starting line-ups

Montenegro 4-4-2

  1. 1 Popović
  2. 14 Brnović
  3. 15 Savić
  4. 5 Vujačić
  5. 16 Gašević
  6. 17 Adžić
  7. 21 Bulatović
  8. 8 Janković
  9. 18 Hakšabanović
  10. 20 Osmajić
  11. 9 Krstović

Coach: Mirko Vučinić

Latvia 5-4-1

  1. 23 Matrevics
  2. 21 Meļņiks
  3. 5 Černomordijs
  4. 4 Vientiess
  5. 13 Jurkovskis
  6. 3 Cirkin
  7. 7 Dašķevičs
  8. 17 Vapne
  9. 15 Zelenkovs
  10. 14 Cigaņiks
  11. 20 Uldriķis

Coach: Paolo Nicolato

Injuries and suspensions

Montenegro

  • MF Stefan LončarSuspended · Mid November 2026

Latvia

  • DF Kristers PenkevicsInjured · Return unknown
  • MF Renars VarslavansInjured · Late January 2027

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

What this page showed before the match: our reasons, form, ratings and records as they were then.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Montenegro Latvia
Box & Territory Pressure 56 33
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 57 68
Finishing Efficiency 71 15
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 25 41
Underlying Play Power 75 38
Montenegro Playing above results (positive regression candidate)
Latvia Playing above results (positive regression candidate)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 8 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Montenegro

When scoring first 80% won · 80% unbeaten (5 matches)
When conceding first 33% points rescued · 33% won (9 matches)
1st Half: 56% 2nd Half: 44%
First 15': 11% Last 15' (76-90'): 17%

Latvia

When scoring first 60% won · 60% unbeaten (5 matches)
When conceding first 22% points rescued · 0% won (9 matches)
1st Half: 30% 2nd Half: 70%
First 15': 10% Last 15' (76-90'): 20%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Montenegro

  1. 1. FW Nikola Krstović 4G · 1A
    Team attack 26.0% Team shots 30.0%
  2. 2. FW Milutin Osmajić 2G · 0A
    Team attack 16.0% Team shots 15.0%
  3. 3. MF Vasilije Adžić 3G · 0A
    Team attack 12.0% Team shots 8.0%

Latvia

  1. 1. FW Vladislavs Gutkovskis 2G · 1A
    Team attack 19.0% Team shots 22.0%
  2. 2. DF Andrejs Cigaņiks 0G · 0A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 9.0%
  3. 3. MF Lūkass Vapne 0G · 1A
    Team attack 10.0% Team shots 8.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Montenegro Latvia
Over 1.5 goals 8/10 6/10
Over 2.5 goals 7/10 4/10
Over 3.5 goals 4/10 1/10
Both teams scored 7/10 4/10
Clean sheet 3/10 3/10
Failed to score 1/10 4/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 1.8 / 1.3 0.6 / 1.5

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Montenegro

  • D 0-0 vs Armenia (H) UEFA Nations League · 5 Oct
  • W 2-1 at Latvia (A) UEFA Nations League · 2 Oct
  • W 3-2 at Armenia (A) UEFA Nations League · 28 Sep
  • W 2-1 vs Cyprus (H) UEFA Nations League · 25 Sep
  • D 2-2 at Slovakia (A) Friendlies · 5 Jun

Latvia

  • L 1-2 at Cyprus (A) UEFA Nations League · 5 Oct
  • L 1-2 vs Montenegro (H) UEFA Nations League · 2 Oct
  • D 0-0 vs Cyprus (H) UEFA Nations League · 28 Sep
  • L 0-2 at Armenia (A) UEFA Nations League · 25 Sep
  • L 0-1 vs Faroe Islands (H) Friendlies · 9 Jun

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Montenegro

Latvia

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Montenegro

Player G
Nikola Krstović (1 pen) 2
Vasilije Adžić 2
Aleksa Latković 1
Milutin Osmajić 1

Latvia

Player G A
Eduards Dašķevičs 1 0
Markuss Strods 1 0

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Montenegro Latvia
  • 4.5 Corners won 3.5
  • 2.5 Corners conceded 7.5
  • 1.2 Yellow cards 1.5
  • 2.0 Opponents' yellow cards 2.0

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 5.0 corners, 1.9 yellow cards.

Referee: Jérôme Brisard, 4.4 yellow cards per match over the last 5 matches.

Attack and defence ratings

MontenegroLatvia
Attack 34 8
Defence 25 11

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

Head-to-head

2Montenegro wins
1draw
0Latvia wins

3 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 2 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League Latvia 1-2 Montenegro
  • 7 Sep 2021 · World Cup Qualification UEFA Montenegro 0-0 Latvia
  • 24 Mar 2021 · World Cup Qualification UEFA Latvia 1-2 Montenegro

Other UEFA Nations League results that day

All results

Times are UTC.