UEFA Nations League · League A, Matchday 5

England vs Croatia Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

England

2-1Full time

Croatia

Thursday 12 November 2026, 19:45 UTC Wembley Stadium, London

Our picks

Result England win

Model probability England 69% Draw 19% Croatia 11%
Double chance England or draw (1X)

Model probability England / Draw 89% England / Croatia 81% Draw / Croatia 31%
Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.5

Model probability 57%
More corners England

Model probability England 79% Level 8% Croatia 13%
Yellow cards Around the league average(league 3.8)

Model probability Over 3.5 53%Over 4.5 33%Over 5.5 18%
Corners Around the league average(league 8.9)

Model probability Over 8.5 59%Over 9.5 47%Over 10.5 35%

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

#1 2‑0
#2 1‑0
#3 2‑1 Matched

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Strong support
Recent goal difference balance Strong support
Recent form gap between the two clubs Low support

All probabilities

Result after 90 minutes

England 69% Our pick

Draw 19%

Croatia 11%

Double chance

1X · England or draw89%

12 · England or Croatia81%

X2 · Croatia or draw31%

Both teams to score

Yes45%

No55%

Goals over/under 2.5

Over 2.557%

Under 2.543%

Yellow cards

Expected 3.8

Over 3.5 / under53% · 47%

Over 4.5 / under33% · 67%

Over 5.5 / under18% · 82%

Corners

Expected England 6.3 – 3.2 Croatia

Over 8.5 / under59% · 41%

Over 9.5 / under47% · 53%

Over 10.5 / under35% · 65%

More corners

England79%

Level8%

Croatia13%

Why this pick?

Our model makes England the clear call. On our strength rating they sit well above Croatia at both ends, and that gap is the biggest single reason. Croatia have little to set against it, though one away win in their last five shows they can still trouble a home side. What holds the pick up is the matchup: England's recent play has them creating big chances and getting into the box well above the league average, while Croatia concede big chances at an elevated rate and rarely reach the opposition area. With home advantage at Wembley and no Croatia win in six meetings, the call is clear.

Match facts

Competition: UEFA Nations League, League A, Matchday 5
Kick-off: Thursday 12 November 2026, 19:45 UTC
Venue: Wembley Stadium, London
Referee: Morten Krogh (3.0 yellow cards per match over the last 5 matches)
Next match: England: Spain Croatia: Czechia

Starting line-ups

England 4-2-3-1

1 Pickford
2 Alexander-Arnold
6 Quansah
5 Burn
3 Hall
8 Anderson
4 Rice
17 Rogers
10 Bellingham
11 Gordon
9 Kane

Coach: Thomas Tuchel

Croatia 4-2-3-1

1 Livaković
14 Smolčić
2 Stanišić
3 Vušković
4 Gvardiol
22 Mišić
8 Kovačić
17 Sučić
16 Baturina
13 Vlašić
20 Matanović

Coach: Slaven Bilić

Injuries and suspensions

England

DF Myles Lewis-SkellySuspended · Mid November 2026
DF Djed SpenceInjured · A few days
DF Ezri KonsaInjured · A few days
DF Marc GuéhiInjured · Late November 2026

Croatia

FW Ivan PerišićSuspended · Mid November 2026
DF Josip ŠutaloInjured · Early December 2026
DF Marin PongračićInjured · Late November 2026
MF Kristijan JakićInjured · Return unknown
MF Luka SučićInjured · Doubtful
FW Franjo IvanovićInjured · About 1-2 weeks

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

What this page showed before the match: our reasons, form, ratings and records as they were then.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

England Croatia

Box & Territory Pressure 66 34

Set-Piece & Corner Threat 31 25

Finishing Efficiency 92 66

Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 41 16

Underlying Play Power 74 22

England Results above play quality (running hot)

Croatia Playing above results (positive regression candidate)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 10 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

England

When scoring first 91% won · 91% unbeaten (11 matches)

When conceding first 67% points rescued · 33% won (3 matches)

1st Half: 50% 2nd Half: 50%

First 15': 7% Last 15' (76-90'): 19%

Croatia

When scoring first 78% won · 78% unbeaten (9 matches)

When conceding first 40% points rescued · 40% won (5 matches)

1st Half: 38% 2nd Half: 62%

First 15': 0% Last 15' (76-90'): 24%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

England

1. MF Jude Bellingham 7G · 5A

Team attack 19.0% Team shots 17.0%
2. FW Harry Kane 10G · 2A

Team attack 18.0% Team shots 17.0%
3. FW Anthony Gordon 4G · 4A

Team attack 12.0% Team shots 9.0%

Croatia

1. MF Mateo Kovačić 0G · 1A

Team attack 10.0% Team shots 11.0%
2. MF Petar Sučić 1G · 1A

Team attack 9.0% Team shots 6.0%
3. FW Igor Matanović 0G · 1A

Team attack 9.0% Team shots 18.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Scoring trends

Scoring trends	England	Croatia
Over 1.5 goals	10/10	9/10
Over 2.5 goals	7/10	8/10
Over 3.5 goals	4/10	3/10
Both teams scored	6/10	7/10
Clean sheet	4/10	1/10
Failed to score	0/10	2/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded)	2.9 / 1.3	1.2 / 2.4

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

England

W 3-0 vs Czechia (H) UEFA Nations League · 6 Oct
W 7-0 at Croatia (A) UEFA Nations League · 3 Oct
W 2-0 at Czechia (A) UEFA Nations League · 29 Sep
L 2-3 vs Spain (H) UEFA Nations League · 26 Sep
W 6-4 vs France (N) World Cup · 18 Jul

Croatia

L 1-2 vs Spain (H) UEFA Nations League · 6 Oct
L 0-7 vs England (H) UEFA Nations League · 3 Oct
L 1-4 at Spain (A) UEFA Nations League · 29 Sep
W 2-1 at Czechia (A) UEFA Nations League · 26 Sep
L 1-2 vs Portugal (N) World Cup · 2 Jul

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

England

1-15 minutes: 1 scored, 1 conceded
16-30 minutes: 2 scored, 0 conceded
31-45 minutes: 5 scored, 0 conceded
46-60 minutes: 3 scored, 1 conceded
61-75 minutes: 2 scored, 1 conceded
76-90 minutes: 1 scored, 0 conceded

Croatia

1-15 minutes: 0 scored, 2 conceded
16-30 minutes: 2 scored, 1 conceded
31-45 minutes: 0 scored, 3 conceded
46-60 minutes: 1 scored, 2 conceded
61-75 minutes: 0 scored, 3 conceded
76-90 minutes: 1 scored, 3 conceded

Goals in each 15-minute period, UEFA Nations League this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

England

Player	G	A
Harry Kane	6	1
Anthony Gordon	3	1
Bukayo Saka	2	0
Jude Bellingham	1	4
Morgan Rogers	1	1

Croatia

Player	G	A
Ivan Perišić	1	2
Dion Drena Beljo	1	0
Luka Modrić	1	0
Marco Pašalić	1	0

Goals and assists in the UEFA Nations League this season.

Corners and yellow cards

England Croatia

6.0 Corners won 3.0
1.8 Corners conceded 4.8
1.2 Yellow cards 1.8
0.8 Opponents' yellow cards 1.2

Per match in the UEFA Nations League this season. Average per club and match: 4.4 corners, 1.8 yellow cards.

Referee: Morten Krogh, 3.0 yellow cards per match over the last 5 matches.

Attack and defence ratings

EnglandCroatia

Attack 92 74

Defence 96 70

0 to 100 against this season's UEFA Nations League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

Head-to-head

4England wins

2draws

0Croatia wins

6 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

3 Oct 2026 · UEFA Nations League Croatia 0-7 England
17 Jun 2026 · World Cup England 4-2 Croatia
13 Jun 2021 · EURO England 1-0 Croatia
18 Nov 2018 · UEFA Nations League England 2-1 Croatia
12 Oct 2018 · UEFA Nations League Croatia 0-0 England

Other UEFA Nations League results that day

All results

Times are UTC.